But I'm a little disappointed as I really liked the notion that we were seeing 2233-era starships, uniforms, and characters that were the same in the Prime universe--it was a nice little bit of history that's now called into question. (I'm sure someone's madly editing Memory Alpha as we type.)
I'm not sure this would be incorporated into Memory Alpha until and unless it were explicitly stated in a film. It is a canon-only wiki, after all, so extracanonical sources like interviews aren't supposed to count. They do draw on scripts and published references to a degree, but not always. For instance, they still haven't retitled their "Alternate reality" article to "Kelvin Timeline" (although the latter now redirects to the former).
Anyway, I don't think this new model necessarily invalidates the possibility that Prime could've had elements very similar to things we've seen in Kelvin like, well, the
Kelvin itself and the Kirks' service aboard it. It allows for changes as the story requires, but it still allows for things being largely similar as well. Most of the characters still led similar lives and ended up in similar roles, so it stands to reason that a lot of other stuff is parallel.
Honestly, the new model does make it easier to reconcile some of the pretty drastic changes in things like how the technology looked, how big the starships were, how built-up San Francisco is, the fact that Pike is a decade older, etc. I do like to point out that prior canon had plenty of similar inconsistencies that we have to squint at and pretend are compatible, but it is a bit of a relief not to have to squint so much in this case.
The easy explanation, which I read a couple of times on this board, is that the time before 2233 is also changed because specific time travel incidents do not occur. For example, what if the mirror universe receives its NCC-1764, it would not be the same Constitution class. And is Kirk going back in time to face Keeler and Gary Seven?
Hmm... I have always wrestled with how to deal with that kind of causal issue. I tend to assume that if an event is before the timeline split, then the visit of the time travelers from the "original" future would still happen, since that timeline would still run in parallel to the altered one, at least up until the moment of the time travel. But since we never see duplicate sets of time travellers from strongly-parallel timelines ending up in the same past and running into each other, it stands to reason that a timeline split can have retroactive effect due to the actions of its time travelers. (Indeed, this is the only way I can make sense of KRAD's
Myriad Universes: A Gutted World, which shows the
Enterprise-E crew returning to the present following the events of
First Contact, yet is in an alternate timeline that diverged years before FC's events.)
In short, yes, this does seem like a plausible interpretation, at least by the standards of Trek-universe time travel stories.