As belated as it may be, these last weeks’ surge of solidarity in favor of refugees has at least the merit to remind not only Europeans, but the rest of the world as well, of an essential reality. Our continent can and must become a great land of immigration in the 21st Century. All conspires to that end: our self-destructive aging imposes it, our social model allows it, and the combination of global warming and Africa’s demographic explosion will increasingly require it.
All this is well-known. What may be less known, however, is that when it comes to migrations, pre-financial crisis Europe was on the verge of becoming the most open region in the world. It is the financial crisis, triggered in 2007-2008 in the United States, and Europe’s inability to overcome it due to its bad policies, that led to the rise of unemployment, xenophobia and a brutal closure of the continent’s borders. All this happened while the international context (Arab spring, refugee influx) should have in fact justified an increased opening.
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What is to be done? The tragedy of the refugees could be an opportunity for Europeans to rise out of their petty disputes and their navel-gazing. By opening themselves up to the world, by jump-starting the economy and investments (housing, schools, infrastructure), by fighting off deflationary risk, the European Union could easily return to its pre-crisis immigration levels.
In that regard, the openness demonstrated by Germany is excellent news for all those who are worried about a decrepit and aging Europe. One can indeed acknowledge that Germany has but little choice in the matter, given its very low birth rate. According to the latest United Nations demographic projections, even with twice the immigration rate in Germany than in France in the coming decades, the German population would still decrease from 81 million to 63 million by the end of the century, while France would go from 64 million today to 76 million in the same interval.
In addition, one should not forget that Germany’s level of economic activity is in part the result of an enormous trade surplus, which by definition could not be extended to the rest of Europe. (There would not be enough people on the planet to absorb such quantity of exports.) That level of economic activity can also be explained by the efficiency of Germany’s industrial model, which most notably relies on a strong involvement of its workers and their representatives (half of the seats on the boards of directors), and which we would be well-advised to draw inspiration from.
Above all, the openness to the world shown by Germany sends a strong signal to E.U. members from the ex-Communist bloc, who neither want children nor migrants, and whose combined population, according to the U.N., should shrink from its current 95 million to 55 million by 2100.
France should be elated at Germany’s attitude, and seize this opportunity to carry through this vision of a Europe that is both open and positive towards refugees and immigrants.
