Your Box office Predictions for Star Trek? (and box office tracking)

[urbandk]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

Since reactions from people who have seen the movie have been pretty great, I think it'll do well. Hopefully Transformers numbers.

Exactly. There've been about two negative reviews so far, and people will doubtless harp on them - but being able to wave one or two critiques like that is a long way from fairly describing the response of people who've seen the thing as "mixed."

So far, Abrams seems to have hit a home run with the audience.

The Austin thing was brilliant, and just a little risky - obviously if the studio hadn't been enormously confident in their movie they wouldn't have tried it. Basically, they said "let's have the first public showing of the movie to a group whose opinions we can't 'embargo' be to a bunch of hard-core Trek fans who are in love with a Trek movie made a quarter of a century ago."

If they win that audience over, obviously they're in great shape - the film is largely directed to, and being otherwise expensively marketed to, "new fans" and a large general audience. But if the reaction had been mixed, or hostile - hell, if there had even been reports of boos in one or two places during the film - the idea would have been a huge misfire.

no boos. no hostility. overwhelmingly positive.

 

[Jbarney]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

I was in Barnes and Noble today, picked up a magazine from the rack and started leafing through it. There was an interview with one of the productin guys in it, I can't remember which one. Basically he defined Paramount's decision to move the film from Christmas 2008 until summer of 2009 because they see the project as a major success. The fact they have lined it up against some of the big early summer blockbusters is worth noting.

The person speaking about the film said that Paramount is hoping/expecting Pirates, Iron Man, and Spiderman numbers. That is incredibly tough to do, considering those films all grossed over 300,000,000 million dollars. I am not trying to disagree with Paramount's vision for the film, but that total is going to be tough to match. There have only been twenty or so films EVER to break 300 million.

I hope it does better than Paramount wants it to and delivers more trek for us in the future. I just hope Paramount isn't expecting too much from this one. 300 million....that is a lot of money.

 

[Plum]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

I was in Barnes and Noble today, picked up a magazine from the rack and started leafing through it. There was an interview with one of the productin guys in it, I can't remember which one. Basically he defined Paramount's decision to move the film from Christmas 2008 until summer of 2009 because they see the project as a major success. The fact they have lined it up against some of the big early summer blockbusters is worth noting.

I've been saying this for a year. A smeggin' year!

The person speaking about the film said that Paramount is hoping/expecting Pirates, Iron Man, and Spiderman numbers. That is incredibly tough to do, considering those films all grossed over 300,000,000 million dollars. I am not trying to disagree with Paramount's vision for the film, but that total is going to be tough to match. There have only been twenty or so films EVER to break 300 million.

I hope it does better than Paramount wants it to and delivers more trek for us in the future. I just hope Paramount isn't expecting too much from this one. 300 million....that is a lot of money.

I'll take that bet.

 

[WarMaster1701]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

Paramount has the utmost confidence in this film. it will do well

 

[darkwing_duck1]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

Paramount has the utmost confidence in this film. it will do well

So did a lot of people in Serenity at this point in it's release.

 

[Flying Spaghetti Monster]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

Paramount has the utmost confidence in this film. it will do well

So did a lot of people in Serenity at this point in it's release.

oh come on. I mean sure that show had a lot of sales on DVD, but the comparison isn't apt. Now they are using iconic characters, and giving a new spin on it. I think this is completely different.

 

[urbandk]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

Paramount has the utmost confidence in this film. it will do well

So did a lot of people in Serenity at this point in it's release.

much lower bar for serenity. a different type of movie marketed in a different way. just as star wars had more akin to westerns than 2001, star trek, at least in this form, is an event movie that has more in common with ID4 than serenity or sunshine. the difference between star trek and ID4 and transformers is that the movie is smarter. it's smart and well acted. it's smart as X-men was smart, and much more visually and aurally impressive. plus it's just a better movie, and kirk and spock are icons in a way wolverine never will be, and he was the marquee character from that franchise. i know trek fans often act like democrats in 2005--they could never even envision victory--but i think this film might break through.

 

[Nardpuncher]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

After seeing all the great press it's getting since the surprise premiere I'm going to up my guess from $210 to $300 million.

 

[darkwing_duck1]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

Paramount has the utmost confidence in this film. it will do well

So did a lot of people in Serenity at this point in it's release.

oh come on. I mean sure that show had a lot of sales on DVD, but the comparison isn't apt. Now they are using iconic characters, and giving a new spin on it. I think this is completely different.

Paramount has the utmost confidence in this film. it will do well

So did a lot of people in Serenity at this point in it's release.

much lower bar for serenity. a different type of movie marketed in a different way. just as star wars had more akin to westerns than 2001, star trek, at least in this form, is an event movie that has more in common with ID4 than serenity or sunshine. the difference between star trek and ID4 and transformers is that the movie is smarter. it's smart and well acted. it's smart as X-men was smart, and much more visually and aurally impressive. plus it's just a better movie, and kirk and spock are icons in a way wolverine never will be, and he was the marquee character from that franchise. i know trek fans often act like democrats in 2005--they could never even envision victory--but i think this film might break through.

My point (and the ONLY one I'm trying to make with this) is that AT THIS POINT, the film (just like Serenity)has only been shown before "friendly" audiences. Of course it was going to be enthusiastically recieved.

The opinon of Joe and Jane Buttsintheseats has yet to be given, and my understanding is THAT is where the audience is hoped to be.

 

[Sector 7]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

My emphases in bold.

Since reactions from people who have seen the movie have been pretty great, I think it'll do well. Hopefully Transformers numbers.

Note of caution: the film has only played to the "was going to see it no matter what" crowd so far.

Serenity had as equally an enthusiastic premiere.

The reaction of "Joe Butt in Seat" has yet to be measured.

It was actually played to an often tough crowd. Those diehard fans who go to a TWOK showing are NOT a pushover crowd.

originally Posted by Starship Polaris
Exactly. There've been about two negative reviews so far, and people will doubtless harp on them - but being able to wave one or two critiques like that is a long way from fairly describing the response of people who've seen the thing as "mixed."

So far, Abrams seems to have hit a home run with the audience.

The Austin thing was brilliant, and just a little risky - obviously if the studio hadn't been enormously confident in their movie they wouldn't have tried it. Basically, they said "let's have the first public showing of the movie to a group whose opinions we can't 'embargo' be to a bunch of hard-core Trek fans who are in love with a Trek movie made a quarter of a century ago."

If they win that audience over, obviously they're in great shape - the film is largely directed to, and being otherwise expensively marketed to, "new fans" and a large general audience. But if the reaction had been mixed, or hostile - hell, if there had even been reports of boos in one or two places during the film - the idea would have been a huge misfire.

You said it better than I could, so I shamelessly quoted you (in bold no less).

 

[Flying Spaghetti Monster]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

So did a lot of people in Serenity at this point in it's release.

oh come on. I mean sure that show had a lot of sales on DVD, but the comparison isn't apt. Now they are using iconic characters, and giving a new spin on it. I think this is completely different.

So did a lot of people in Serenity at this point in it's release.

much lower bar for serenity. a different type of movie marketed in a different way. just as star wars had more akin to westerns than 2001, star trek, at least in this form, is an event movie that has more in common with ID4 than serenity or sunshine. the difference between star trek and ID4 and transformers is that the movie is smarter. it's smart and well acted. it's smart as X-men was smart, and much more visually and aurally impressive. plus it's just a better movie, and kirk and spock are icons in a way wolverine never will be, and he was the marquee character from that franchise. i know trek fans often act like democrats in 2005--they could never even envision victory--but i think this film might break through.

My point (and the ONLY one I'm trying to make with this) is that AT THIS POINT, the film (just like Serenity)has only been shown before "friendly" audiences. Of course it was going to be enthusiastically recieved.

The opinon of Joe and Jane Buttsintheseats has yet to be given, and my understanding is THAT is where the audience is hoped to be.

uh... it's funny you say that. I've talked to more than one Firefly fan...and I've seen the same on this board.. who HATES Serenity

 

[Nardpuncher]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

^^ That could be me! I hate the movie, love the series.

 

[RAMA]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

Paramount has the utmost confidence in this film. it will do well

So did a lot of people in Serenity at this point in it's release.

No they didn't...

 

[darkwing_duck1]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

My emphases in bold.

Note of caution: the film has only played to the "was going to see it no matter what" crowd so far.

Serenity had as equally an enthusiastic premiere.

The reaction of "Joe Butt in Seat" has yet to be measured.

It was actually played to an often tough crowd. Those diehard fans who go to a TWOK showing are NOT a pushover crowd.

It played to a "trek friendly" crowd in BOTH places, not to a 'mainstream' crowd. That was my point.

originally Posted by Starship Polaris
Exactly. There've been about two negative reviews so far, and people will doubtless harp on them

Among Trek fans. As I said earlier: Joe and Jane Buttsintheseats have not yet spoken, and it is THEY whom Paramount is banking on to make this film a hit, is it not?

So far, Abrams seems to have hit a home run with the audience.

Again a trek friendly audience.

If they win that audience over, obviously they're in great shape - the film is largely directed to, and being otherwise expensively marketed to, "new fans" and a large general audience. But if the reaction had been mixed, or hostile - hell, if there had even been reports of boos in one or two places during the film - the idea would have been a huge misfire.

This audience you are saying is so indicitive of success for Trek XI, the "fans" is the SAME audience that elsewhere is dismissed as being "unimportant" in favor of the "mainstream" audience.

 

[darkwing_duck1]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

Paramount has the utmost confidence in this film. it will do well

So did a lot of people in Serenity at this point in it's release.

No they didn't...

Oh BS they didn't...I was HERE for it. Once the test screenings and the premiere were out the fans (barring a few, just like now) were jumping up and down...praising the film to the skies...it was gonna go "mainstream" big-time...on and on and on.


But on opening weekend, Joe and Jane Buttsintheseats said: "uhh....how about...no!"

 

[Skywalker]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

Serenity wasn't a big-budget, highly promoted, massively hyped (Browncoats not included) summer blockbuster, either.

 

[Data Holmes]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

Has an audience of trek fans ever been called "friendly" toward the product before?

I mean, over the past ten years or so there has been no more vocal a dissenting opinion on the quality of trek product than the very fan base that is getting decried as "trek friendly"...

The calls for "The Beebs" heads on platters... Hell NEM was RAKED across the coals day and night by trek fans. Enterprise, Voyager... The list can go on.

I think that the signs so far are more than positive.

 

[TheBrew]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

$335 Million.

 

[chrisspringob]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

Domestic $55-75 Million Opening Weekend
Domestic $160-190 Million Total

^^
This.

And I think that would actually be a pretty strong showing, considering that Nemesis only made $43 million total. Honestly, I think those of you making $300 million+ predictions are setting yourselves up for disappointment. When has any franchise ever had *that* big a turnaround in just one movie?

 

[darkwing_duck1]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

Has an audience of trek fans ever been called "friendly" toward the product before?

I mean, over the past ten years or so there has been no more vocal a dissenting opinion on the quality of trek product than the very fan base that is getting decried as "trek friendly"...

The calls for "The Beebs" heads on platters... Hell NEM was RAKED across the coals day and night by trek fans. Enterprise, Voyager... The list can go on.

More friendly than the general audiences...