Starship Polaris said:
jon1701 said:
Regardless of the quality, I just cant see this film tanking. At least not financially.
Actually, I sort of can. In fact, I'd put the likelihood of this movie fulfilling the studio's highest expectations for it at somewhat worse than 50/50.
It might be hard for the studio to take an absolute bath on this thing, but it could easily be a big disappointment to the studio.
The budget is between 120 and 150 million dollars.
No "Star Trek" film ever released has come close to earning the kind of money in first-run that this film will have to pull in to be a success.
Abrams is a very good, very smart, very talented guy and he's surrounded himself with the same. Nonetheless, his last feature film was "Mission: Impossible III" - part of a popular franchise, and a good movie which had a budget of (guess what) 150 million dollars. It disappointed the studio's expectations.
One would think, given the sixty-some year track record of the "Superman" franchise and the success of Bryan Singer's "X-Men" films that Singer and Superman would have been a match made in Heaven. Again, a good film (your mileage may vary, but nonetheless...) rather than a brilliant film, which made hundreds of millions of dollars in first run but had a huge budget. It disappointed the studio that backed it.
Neither "Mission: Impossible III" nor "Superman Returns" performed badly enough to kill off their respective franchises with certainty - both eventually made some profit for their studios, but took a lot longer to pay out than the folks investing in these things are looking for. So a
disappointing "Star Trek" film (as opposed to a financial disaster of the "Poseidon" variety), which is certainly possible, may not kill the Franchise altogether, but it would probably permanently cripple the notion of Trek as a viable movie franchise.