The sword cuts both ways. I see no reason why long-time fans should be particularly valued over new fans.
Because they're "the base."
This movie isn't going to turn a profit on new fans alone. Tick off or alienate your fanbase then your movie is going to fail. It isn't going to win purely on new fans.
Yes, it is.
You know what the base of Trek fans are? 3 million. That's about how many people were tuning in to ENT at its lowest points in the ratings. So we know that there are around 3 million Trekkies out there who are more or less reliable at even the lowest points of Trek's popularity.
Guess what? This movie is going to need more than 3 million people to be profitable, let alone a hit. Let's say they want numbers akin to Abrams's and Orci's last big hits,
Cloverfield and
Transformers. If they want
Cloverfield numbers, they're going to need to make $80 million; if they want
Transformers numbers, they're going to need to make around $319 million. That's all just the domestic grosses.
Let's assume that there's not much repeat viewings and that most theatres are charging around $8 per ticket and that it's in wide release. That means that to reach
Cloverfield numbers, they're gonna need to attract around 10 million theatre-goers. To make
Transformers numbers, they're going to need to attract almost 40 million theatre-goers.
That means that to make the minimum threshold of success that this creative team has established for itself, they're going to need to attract 7 million more people than can be said to make up the "Trekkie fanbase." They need to attract more than twice as many people as are Trekkies just to meet the
minimum threshold of success they've had in the past. To meet the
maximum threshold of success, they'll need to attract
37 million more theatre-goers than make up the Trekkie fanbase.
Simply put, they're only going to need the Trekkie fanbase if they can't attract anyone else, and even then, the Trekkie fanbase won't save them. Trekkies can only break this film if it absolutely fails to attract non-Trekkies -- and they can't hurt it if it attracts just a few million more theatre-goers than
Cloverfield did. And on top of that, a certain percentage of the fanbase is always going to show up, whether they like it or not, and another percentage is going to like what they see, irrelevant of what people on the Internet say.
Simply put, there aren't enough of us Trekkies to actually make a difference in
Star Trek XI's popularity under anything other than a low-turnout scenario for this film, and even then, we aren't unified enough to really hurt or help it. If this film achieves its goal and gets mainstream success, it doesn't matter if every hard-core Trekkie, all 3 million of us, boycott the thing, because it will still attract tens of millions of others.