I looked at the box office returns for the last two films and compared them to the latest film. The three biggest overseas markets, where the Star Trek films made over $10 million, were Australia, United Kingdom, Germany, and China (for the last film, with over $57 million). The box office went up in all three markets for the second film, then fell drastically for the third film. For example, in the United Kingdom, the trend is, in millions in dollars: $35 (ST), $39 (STID), $13 (STB). Australia and Germany box offices for STB were below $10 million, when both were over $15 million for the last film. The coming markets, save for China, will each add less than $10 million to the pot, based on past results. So, China is the wild card.
Based on the results, I do not see this film making more than $400 million. This will be just good enough for it to be considered a success for Paramount, so there might be a sequel.