When Do You Think the Recession Will End?

[TedShatner10]

The Democrats have their dirt and mistakes (Vietnam and interning Americans of Japanese ancestry), with many of them being as delusional as the Republicans, but you American conservatives of whatever stripe fucking crack me by hanging yourselves with your words and actions. As Glenn Beck did here:

After all, the Republicans said they stood for smaller government, but the size of our government grew enormously under a Republican president and a Republican majority in Congress. Democrats said they stood for an end to the war in Iraq, but for better or worse, nearly two years after taking over Congress, they don't even have a timetable for withdrawal.

My point is that actions speak louder than words. The "R" and the "D" don't matter if the people we elect don't follow through on their promises.
So what are my core values, the things that I refuse to compromise on? To figure that out, I decided to try to define what I think a conservative really believes.

A conservative believes that our inalienable rights do not include housing, healthcare or Hummers.

A conservative believes that our inalienable rights DO include the pursuit of happiness. That means it is guaranteed to no one.

A conservative believes that those who pursue happiness and find it have a right to not be penalized for that success.

A conservative believes that there are no protections against the hardship and heartache of failure. We believe that the right to fail is just as important as the chance to succeed and that those who do fail learn essential lessons that will help them the next time around.

A conservative believes in personal responsibility and accepts the consequences for his or her words and actions.

A conservative believes that real compassion can't be found in any government program.

A conservative believes that each of us has a duty to take care of our neighbors. It was private individuals, companies and congregations that sent water, blankets and supplies to New Orleans far before the government ever set foot there.

A conservative believes that family is the cornerstone of our society and that people have a right to manage their family any way they see fit, so long as it's not criminal. We are far more attuned to our family's needs than some faceless, soulless government program.

A conservative believes that people have a right to worship the God of their understanding. We also believe that people do not have the right to jam their version of God (or no God) down anybody else's throat.

A conservative believes that people go to the movies to be entertained and to church to be preached to, not the other way around.

A conservative believes that debt creates unhealthy relationships. Everyone, from the government on down, should live within their means and strive for financial independence.

A conservative believes that a child's education is the responsibility of the parents, not the government.

A conservative believes that every human being has a right to life, from conception to death.

A conservative believes in the smallest government you can get without anarchy. We know our history: The larger a government gets, the harder it will fall.

Those are the things a conservative believes in, and they're the things that I believe in. Now, if only I could find a candidate to match.

 

[Leroy]

How likely is the recession to become permanent or at the very least last decades?

 

[Kryton]

I Can't Believe It's Not Guns and Butter.

 

[SeerSGB]

How likely is the recession to become permanent or at the very least last decades?

Unlikely. Once we get to that point, you're more or less talking game over for the US as we know it. A year, yeah for sure; two, maybe I can see it; three or more, forget won't happen.

Is the stimulus the cure all that some people think it is? Nope. But it might be a much needed booster shot. At the very least, it's better than doing nothing.

The only certainty, is that business, the financial sector, and banking as we knew them, are pretty much dead and done with.

 

[Holdfast]

Is the stimulus the cure all that some people think it is? Nope. But it might be a much needed booster shot. At the very least, it's better than doing nothing.

I do think that is debatable. Or rather, it should at least be clearer in what ways it would be better than doing nothing.

It IS likely to provide more jobs in the short term and prevent some jobs being lost in unstable industries.
It IS likely to provide marginally better infrastructure in the medium term.
It IS likely to boost public confidence, and potentially stock market confidence, in the very short-term.
It IS likely to give the impression of action.

It ISN'T likely to shorten the recession significantly (maybe a quarter, at very most)
It ISN'T likely to help the long-term unemployment rate
It ISN'T likely to help other long-term economic fundamentals (in fact it's likely to worsen them).

Whether it's a good or bad thing depends on what you think is most important right now. Personally, I think a lot of it is a big mistake, but I can understand why it's being done.

How likely is the recession to become permanent or at the very least last decades?

Highly, highly unlikely. However, some of the effects of both the recession AND the various bailouts/stimuli WILL be felt for decades.

 

[Gertch]

but you American conservatives of whatever stripe [] crack me by hanging yourselves with your words and actions. As Glenn Beck did here:

In what way?

 

[Plecostomus]

One thing I'll be surprised to see survive the recession, if it does, will be the concept/practice of "Hire and Fire at will". If things really tank, and I mean harder than they're tanking right now, I can see a push for a federal "Right to work" labor law that'll make it harder for employers to cull employees for little to no cause.

I sure wouldn't hire someone under those conditions and if such a bill came up I'd probably lay as many off as possible before it passed.

I'd love to see worker protection laws enacted but I feel many many employers would react as Mallory says he/she/it would.

The only way to get worker protections would be to create a powerful and enforceable "no offshoring" law and an oversight agency that actually enforces the laws... and we'd have to offer some kind of retroactive protection to everyone who would be axed before the law took place.

Really not that easy to do. I've been talking with friends/colleges/networking acquaintances. Been toying with the idea of running for local office next cycle and seeing if we can't enact some sort of protection law at the town/village level.

My "method" would consist of a local law that says no town-mandated tax breaks or land improvements or benefits unless you can show the town that your staff consists of 95% permanent payroll'd and insured workers, and removal of said benifits to existing companies unless they complied with the new laws.

I would be gambling on weather or not companies really want free sewer/roads/access-ways and tax breaks... that's how we're stimulating "growth" (mostly of the temp forces) now.

 

[Kryton]

Aside: If Glenn Beck says it and you AGREE with it, you may need to seek psychological counseling.

The man is a mental midget and cannot even dress himself. He has zero intelligence...which may be a generous estimate.

 

[TedShatner10]

but you American conservatives of whatever stripe [] crack me by hanging yourselves with your words and actions. As Glenn Beck did here:

In what way?

Glenn Beck wants the richest and most powerful nation on Earth to crawl back to the Bronze Age by denuding the more benign aspects of a powerful state. I like my housing, functional roads, public healthcare, public education, and emergency rescure services thank you very much.

 

[Gertch]

but you American conservatives of whatever stripe [] crack me by hanging yourselves with your words and actions. As Glenn Beck did here:

In what way?

Glenn Beck wants the richest and most powerful nation on Earth to crawl back to the Bronze Age by denuding the more benign aspects of a powerful state.

No, he, and I, don't want the US turning socialist.

 

[adv1701]

The CBO says this will actually do more harm than good. They should not do anything and let the market fix itself and come out the other side better and leaner or cut the payroll taxes that will put money into the hands of employees and employers right away. This spending bill adds to welfare in a way that it will be impossible to reverse. We're more screwed now than we were before Obama took over. The only good thing to come out of this may be Republicans getting back some control but how much of the country will be left and what will it look like. There have been many sources saying the new deal failed and prolonged the depression only WW2 pulled us out because it created jobs for everyone and put money in their pockets.
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2009/feb/04/cbo-obama-stimulus-harmful-over-long-haul/

 

[Mallory]

I'd love to see worker protection laws enacted but I feel many many employers would react as Mallory says he/she/it would.

I'm a 51 year old married father of three, just to clear up any confusion.

I've worked for a small company now for 20 years. We've never had more than 25 employees and I've only been forced to terminate two of them in that period of time, for which I consider myself exceedingly fortunate. And both of them occurred after years of employment, position transfers and counseling. So, from my standpoint, both were justified.

I've also had to layoff employees during bad economic times. What good does it do to guarantee employment when there's no money for a paycheck? Sometimes bad things happen to good people through no fault of their own.

 

[Falcor5]

What good does it do to guarantee employment when there's no money for a paycheck? Sometimes bad things happen to good people through no fault of their own.

Exactly! How can a company guarantee employment if it is losing money because of a bad economy? It just does not make any sense.

 

[TedShatner10]

No, he, and I, don't want the US turning socialist.

Are you conservatives for real? You Lolbetarians are swiftly becoming parodies of yourselves. If you had it all your own way with having a 'small' government, with no sustainable socialist aspects, that would lead to the collapse of the United States as we know it and you'll get run by a bunch of petty warlords who used to members of the local PD or National Guard division.

 

[DragonLady]

I laugh when conservatives bring up the socialist thing. The latest sound bite, with nothing to support it. Basically is said for anything they find not to pre pro-corporate. Have to support those campaign donors...

Back to reality. Recessions typically don't last more than two years. Even those started by failed fiscal policy.

That being said, I doubt we'll see any improvement before 2010. WIth all the opposition and partisan bickering keeping anything from actually being done for the past couple of years, that shouldn't be surprising.

 

[SeerSGB]

My major post recession concern is people not learning from this recession. They'll back to spending, the govt. will go back to deregulating and crossing their fingers that business will do that right thing, etc, and we'll set ourselves for this all over again in 10 or 20 years.

 

[DragonLady]

My major post recession concern is people not learning from this recession. They'll back to spending, the govt. will go back to deregulating and crossing their fingers that business will do that right thing, etc, and we'll set ourselves for this all over again in 10 or 20 years.

I actually worry about the same thing. We didn't learn from the 80s this time obviously.

 

[bigdaddy]

When Jesus Christ comes back from the dead and kills all the stupid people.

 

[Squiggy]

Zombie Jesus does hate high school dropouts.

 

[Kryton]

Unused brains = not so tasty.