What would a replicator due to todays economy?

[Slappy The Vulcan]

Imagine a 24th century islam extremist traveled back in time and gave a working 24th century replicator to a major electronics manufacturer, this replicator was reverse engineered and sold to the public, before the government could step in and do anything about it. now that the retail sector and modern commerce as we know it is suddenly dead (screw paying 600 for a PS3, I'll just replicate one and all of the games in my own home.) how do you think a sudden introduction of a trek device of this caliber would affect the modern world? would we obliterate ourselves? a period of mass hysteria and then society is the better for it? what are everyone's thoughts on this?

 

[Cary L. Brown]

Slappy The Vulcan said:
Imagine a 24th century islam extremist traveled back in time and gave a working 24th century replicator to a major electronics manufacturer, this replicator was reverse engineered and sold to the public, before the government could step in and do anything about it. now that the retail sector and modern commerce as we know it is suddenly dead (screw paying 600 for a PS3, I'll just replicate one and all of the games in my own home.) how do you think a sudden introduction of a trek device of this caliber would affect the modern world? would we obliterate ourselves? a period of mass hysteria and then society is the better for it? what are everyone's thoughts on this?

It wouldn't do nearly as much as you probably think it would.

Realize that the majority of the cost of any object you purchase is not the raw material, or even the manufacturing cost, but the DEVELOPMENT cost. That's why new technologies are always very expensive, but once "mature" they become quite inexpensive.

You're paying for the DESIGN, more than you are for the MANUFACTURE.

What would happen would be that the whole "digital rights management" thing we deal with today, on a limited basis, for music would suddenly apply to EVERYTHING.

There would still be a cost, and not an insubstantial one... you still need raw material and you need a LOT of power. Both are also among the greater expenses in manufacturing.

People would still be designing, as in your example, video games. And that design would be as much "protected" as it was before.

Would it really be worthwhile to spend, say, $250 in energy costs, plus the massive expense of the replicator up-front, in order to "cheat" someone out of their legitimate fee for developing a Playstation or a Wii, which may only cost $300 to begin with?

This would be an evolution, not a revolution. In some cases, it would simply be more cost-effective to make things the old-fashioned way (not what you do when you're on a starship in deep space and have excess energy but limited matter available, but certainly what you'd do in the opposite situation!). The main thing would be that you'd have certain manufacturing facilities replaced with other, more efficient manufacturing facilities.

Yes, we could all have "home foundries" and "home injection molding" hardware today. Why don't we? Because it's NOT WORTH THE EXPENSE.

Replicators aren't "magic" after all... and there are costs to any machine.

The main thing that this would do would be to totally destroy unionized labor in large manufacturing facilities. They'd be devastated.

 

[SonicRanger]

Your electric bill would be huge to rearrange matter by converting it to energy and back! It would be cheaper to buy the PS3! Besides, how would your replicator know how to make a PS3?

 

[Slappy The Vulcan]

Yet another Idea of mine dies because I failed to think it through...oh well, maybe one day I will come up with something that doesn't die after 5 replies. I didn't think about companies charging you for the "patterns" to make the goods yourself. My next questions is this: How do we know it takes alot of power to operate one of these things? apperiantly, these and the transporter are low power enough to be used on a starship constantly, or is it that the starship has the power output of a small sun?

 

[All Seeing Eye]

Slappy The Vulcan said:
My next questions is this: How do we know it takes alot of power to operate one of these things? apperiantly, these and the transporter are low power enough to be used on a starship constantly, or is it that the starship has the power output of a small sun?

Starships get their power from a Matter/Anti-Matter reactor, of which the energy output is far greater than a modern day nuclear power station, anything that can re-arrange matter and energy on the Atomic/Molecular level like a replicator is going to need some serious power, its not like its a kettle or a hoover.

 

[Forbin]

I think the bigger question is how can anyone misspell "do"?

 

[Cary L. Brown]

Fire said:

Slappy The Vulcan said:
My next questions is this: How do we know it takes alot of power to operate one of these things? apperiantly, these and the transporter are low power enough to be used on a starship constantly, or is it that the starship has the power output of a small sun?

Starships get their power from a Matter/Anti-Matter reactor, of which the energy output is far greater than a modern day nuclear power station, anything that can re-arrange matter and energy on the Atomic/Molecular level like a replicator is going to need some serious power, its not like its a kettle or a hoover.

Exactly correct.

However, it's also very power-intensive to carry a lot of cargo around at FTL speeds. So, evidently it turns out that it's less expensive to carry a small amount of mass which you just "resequence" repeatedly (remember, the steak you eat on the Enterprise tomorrow was yesterday's sewage!) than to carry months (or years!) worth of foodstuffs and so forth from star system to star system.

 

[Plecostomus]

If this became reality tomorrow I could see you having to buy the "pattern" for whatever object you want to replicate. You'd pay for access to Sony's remote server, you'd gain access to the PS3 file, you'd replicate your item and then Sony would purge your memory and close the connection.

This would require some severe DRM technology to pull off.

 

[Cary L. Brown]

Plecostomus said:
If this became reality tomorrow I could see you having to buy the "pattern" for whatever object you want to replicate. You'd pay for access to Sony's remote server, you'd gain access to the PS3 file, you'd replicate your item and then Sony would purge your memory and close the connection.

This would require some severe DRM technology to pull off.

OH, yeah... DRM is definitely not going to "go away" since it's really the information that's the most valuable part, and it's getting easier and easier to move information.

It's been argued that the "Trek future" is cashless... which is probably true... but that it's MONEYLESS... which is ludicrous. Notwithstanding the fact that we have been told about "Federation Credits" and "earning our pay" and so forth, there's also that little thing about motivation. Excellence has always been motivated by the idea of getting personal gain... more stuff, more recognition, more power, whatever. We've seen what happens in a culture where there is no incentive for excelling (which is the root of all competition). We've seen the impact of that on the American auto industry (I'm not a big fan of the UAW, just for the record, because I believe that they're largely responsible for the destruction of Detroit's auto industry), and in the former USSR (where people were so disincentivized that they are almost incapable of thinking for themselves, even years after the fall of their former government... and where those who DO think for themselves almost inevitably end up involved in organized crime!)

I can't see EITHER of those being the "way of the future" in Trek's time. You've got to have incentives... you've got to have competition...and for that to work, you've GOT to have people getting paid for what they do... with the better work getting the greater reward!

As someone who creates nothing BUT "digital product" (I'm an engineer... I don't actually make the parts or assemblies myself, but I create the information from which they are made)... I know I'd be upset if someone took my work without compensating me for it. Or if my company compensated me for it but someone else took it from my company without compensating them. Because it would, sooner or later, end up falling onto me anyway.

 

[Ghel]

If replicators existed today:

There would be countless lawsuits against the owners for violations of "intellectual property."

Every object built would now have an "FBI Warning" boldly affixed to it in such a way that it couldn't be removed, annoying regular purchasers to no end.

It would also have the red-orange "Interpol Warning" etched into its surface.

Manufacturers would stop selling products and start "licensing" them. Still using your kitchen table? Fine, pay us another $50 renewal fee.

The FBI would raid garage sales and arrest those responsible for "piracy." Similarly, even if you bought a product to begin with, you would never be allowed to alter it, sell it, or even give it away.

I actually wrote a short story about this type of future once, only I used nanotechnology, so if you didn't pay your renewal fees on time, your purchased object would be dematerialized.

 

[Meredith]

If it could replicate itself and use matter for energy it would totally wreck the economy or make someone who holds it extremely rich and powerful.

If you really wanted terror, replicate gold bars for money and use the money to fund acts of ill intent.

 

[Bill Morris]

Wikipedia's article on rapid prototyping gives a rundown of today's state of the art in replicators. These systems can whip out plastic or metal object of any desired shape from computer models, even scale-model starships, as long as you've got the design file. But it's not cheap. The advantage comes in speeding up product development.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rapid_prototyping

 

[Kinnison]

I don't know. We see a lot of open source software already. I don't see people being able to charge for any but the most unique or new objects. Regular stuff would be impossible to patent, really.

 

[Cary L. Brown]

LCARS 24 said:
Wikipedia's article on rapid prototyping gives a rundown of today's state of the art in replicators. These systems can whip out plastic or metal object of any desired shape from computer models, even scale-model starships, as long as you've got the design file. But it's not cheap. The advantage comes in speeding up product development.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rapid_prototyping

I'm sorry, but these are NOT the same as "real" parts. The physical properties of the parts produced are not the same as, say, parts machined from raw steel stock, or cast... or of plastic parts which are injection molded.

It's sufficient for "demonstration" parts, to check fit and form... but you don't get "real" parts.

I use this in my job. Virtually every system I work on is "prototyped" this way first. It's great for checking fit/form/function. And for illustrating stuff to people who can't visualize in 3D from looking at 2D drawings.

Just wanted to clarify.

 

[Slappy The Vulcan]

Okay...to put a spin on this discussion, What the Iranian or Isreali Government was given the replicator? how do you think a device this powerful in the hands of these countries would impact the global landscape? IMHO, Iran would probibly use it to mass produce neclear weapons or at the very least equipment for HAMAS or something. and wipe out Isreal as an example, and force the entire region to submit to Extreme Islamic law, then they would set there sights on the world superpowers. Isreal, would probibly destroy Pakistan, prompting the U.N. to declare war on Isreal, most of the world superpowers would follow, and we would see a scinario very similar to what is outlined in the "end of the world" section of the bible. Just my guess

 

[USS KG5]

Slappy The Vulcan said:
Okay...to put a spin on this discussion, What the Iranian or Isreali Government was given the replicator? how do you think a device this powerful in the hands of these countries would impact the global landscape?

Iran does not need any more resources to fight a war against Israel - its problem is that in the process Iran itself gets wiped out by the USA.

IMHO, Iran would probibly use it to mass produce neclear weapons or at the very least equipment for HAMAS or something. and wipe out Isreal as an example, and force the entire region to submit to Extreme Islamic law,

The Iranians have enough military equipment to last them a lifetime of warfare.

then they would set there sights on the world superpowers. Isreal, would probibly destroy Pakistan, prompting the U.N. to declare war on Isreal, most of the world superpowers would follow, and we would see a scinario very similar to what is outlined in the "end of the world" section of the bible. Just my guess

Naah - nothing like that would happen - you are neglecting two very important points, well three: -

1. Becoming a "superpower" involves having considerably more than one edge over everyone else - you need numerous edges and to be willing to pour resources into keeping ahead. Only the USA has the money and will to do this currently.
2. Iran is an extremely powerful country anyway, were it not for the presence of the much more powerful USA in the region they probably would start a war with Israel, although they would probably lose.
3. All you are really talking about is giving the Iranians something they did not have before. So, a better example would not really be a replicator but more likely an advanced Nuclear submarine. This could merrily slip past the defenses of a carrier group, sink the carrier, and send the USA running from the Persian Gulf. Now THAT would change the balance of power in the Middle East.

 

[Cary L. Brown]

Slappy The Vulcan said:
Okay...to put a spin on this discussion, What the Iranian or Isreali Government was given the replicator? how do you think a device this powerful in the hands of these countries would impact the global landscape? IMHO, Iran would probibly use it to mass produce neclear weapons or at the very least equipment for HAMAS or something. and wipe out Isreal as an example, and force the entire region to submit to Extreme Islamic law, then they would set there sights on the world superpowers. Isreal, would probibly destroy Pakistan, prompting the U.N. to declare war on Isreal, most of the world superpowers would follow, and we would see a scinario very similar to what is outlined in the "end of the world" section of the bible. Just my guess

This is the sort of discussion which will inevitably lead to the thread being closed down... so I think I'll just avoid it completely.

 

[SonicRanger]

Slappy, setting aside your ignorant comments, if you had ever been to the Middle East, you would know that power outages range from occasional to frequent in many of those countries. Until recently, even some capital cities in the region had power outages almost every day. There is a reason that these countries want nuclear power plants -- they want the lights to stay on. They wouldn't have the electrical capacity to run a replicator.

 

[Slappy The Vulcan]

SonicRanger said:
Slappy, setting aside your ignorant comments, if you had ever been to the Middle East, you would know that power outages range from occasional to frequent in many of those countries. Until recently, even some capital cities in the region had power outages almost every day. There is a reason that these countries want nuclear power plants -- they want the lights to stay on. They wouldn't have the electrical capacity to run a replicator.

No, I've never been to the Middle East. My discussion was hypothetical. I'm sorry if I offended anyone. I guess more thought should have been in order.

 

[Timo]

Would it really be worthwhile to spend, say, $250 in energy costs, plus the massive expense of the replicator up-front, in order to "cheat" someone out of their legitimate fee for developing a Playstation or a Wii, which may only cost $300 to begin with?

That $50 would earn millions for the competing company that stole the product by spending $300 on a template.

A replicator actually hits hardest on the design process, because that becomes unnecessary for those wanting to make a big buck by selling stuff on the cheap. Now they can sell quality stuff on the cheap and outbid the competitor who paid for the original design effort.

That wouldn't have a longterm effect, of course, because eventually somebody would have to return to paying for design effort, to introduce new products. However, that would very nicely serve the putative extremist who wants to throw worldwide economy to utter chaos. Within a few years, nay, months, the quality- and complexity-oriented western economies might indeed fall - and fall too hard to ever get up again.

Provided, of course, that energy costs weren't prohibitive. Yet I doubt the replicators really expend anything like E=mcc, or require an antimatter battery to hook up to. The Uxbridges on a rather explicitly infrastructure-free planet received a tabletop model (supposedly "limited in capabilities", but still able to provide food, clothing and fresh water among other things) in TNG "Survivors", after all.

Timo Saloniemi