• Welcome! The TrekBBS is the number one place to chat about Star Trek with like-minded fans.
    If you are not already a member then please register an account and join in the discussion!

US retreat leaves China leading way in race to return to Moon

Well the future of all things 'spacey' is collaborative ventures between countries. The Indians and the Chinese are making their mark as nations as a political statement to their own people, not for foreign consumption. All meaningful future research and development will be multinational. All the grown-up stuff happening just now already is. Which is why moaning about the lack of USA-only work is sooooooo last century.
 
China’s 1st Lunar Lander snaps 1st landing site Panorama
http://www.universetoday.com/107388/chinas-1st-lunar-lander-snaps-1st-landing-site-panorama/

Obviously you're either in denial about the US's successful space flight history, or you're just biased against Americans, which is your own problem and has nothing to do with this discussion.

Emphasis mine. The problem he's pointing out is essentially that the SLS is sucking up a whole lot of the funding for planetary missions, as those departments have their budgets raided for SLS funding, yet NASA's projected flight rate for the SLS is so low that if Apollo had only flown crewed missions as often, the crew for Apollo 17 would still be waiting for their mission to the moon, which would occur sometime around 2015.

One of the other problems is that our legacy launchers are too expensive, so that the recent SpaceX GES-8 mission was the first private US launch to geosynchronous orbit in four years, in spite of the thriving launch business for such satellites. A ride on a full up Atlas 5 is about 200 million dollars, whereas SpaceX did it for about a fourth the cost. That cost difference (the US ended up with over-priced launch services), combined with budget pressures from the SLS, means that the number of deep space missions that NASA can carry out is under severe constraints.

There's also the plutonium crisis which has left the US unable to launch any major new missions to the outer planets, but hopefully Kirk Sorensen's FLiBe energy company will rectify the shortfall.


as usual politics is NASA's biggest obstacle
 
F-35 and wars are sucking funding.
"And, rare among NASA programs, SLS’s funding and timeline were in good shape. SLS is running five months ahead of schedule and is below budget"
http://www.thespacereview.com/article/2405/1

Garry Lyles proves there is no "retreat"
http://www.space-travel.com/reports..._Building_Americas_Next_Great_Rocket_999.html
http://www.americaspace.com/?p=46724


China isn't afraid to spend money on big LVs themselves
http://www.aviationweek.com/Article.aspx?id=%2Farticle-xml%2FAW_09_30_2013_p22-620995.xml

Some debate about CZ-9's future:
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=8447.180

Now scroll down to the middle of this article to see how the recent lander compares to the descent stage of the LEM
http://www.thespacereview.com/article/2413/1
http://www.spacedaily.com/dragonspace.html
 
Instead of nations competeting against other in space, imagine what could be accomplished if those nations pooled all the money and resources into one pot.

There's nothing wrong with a little bit of competition.

True, but there is time and a place for that. We have finite resources so is it not more prudent instead of competing against each other in something such as space exploration and in essence duplicating work thereby wasting some of those finite resourse that we work together so some of those finite resources could be distriuted to hlp allievate another issue somehwere else on the planet.

Yes we already have joined projects, and some countries already pool their resources together i.e. ESA.

But would could we accomplish if we pooled together what each space agency spends into one fund. If we had done it 10, 20 years go could we have returned to the moon by know, could we have established a moonbase, gone to MArs?
 
Of course we could if we had kept the momentun from the 60s going and pour the same amount of money into it.

It is only a question of money.. technologically we are capable of this for quite some time now but the problem is that it is very hard to convince people of the usefulness of space exploration.

How do you explain spending billions of dollars just so you can get some pictures from the surface of Mars when said people are unemployed or have other problems? What does a normal person care if there ever was water on Mars?

We as humanity could have colonized our system by now and maybe have fusion energy or even FTL ships if we had skipped our periods of technological stagnation and our constant warfare and instead worked together to achieve a higher goal.

But we are a competitive species.. many of our discoveries were born out of competition. Companies compete against each other and develop better products so they get an advantage on the market, nations compete for the same reasons and sometimes also for ideological reasons.

China doesn't push its space program for scientific research.. they want to profit from it for both technological and PR reasons much like the US and the Soviets did in the 50s and 60s.
 
But would could we accomplish if we pooled together what each space agency spends into one fund. If we had done it 10, 20 years go could we have returned to the moon by know, could we have established a moonbase, gone to MArs?

You can also end up accomplishing less than we would on our own, depending on how all the project responsibilities, resources, and production get divided up. If done wrong, you end up with a project management nightmare where diplomats are deciding important engineering details and the work gets subdivided so finely that most of what the engineers are doing is trying to understand what other engineers from other countries are doing.

Sometimes the big advantage is just having one company do something in-house.
 
But would could we accomplish if we pooled together what each space agency spends into one fund. If we had done it 10, 20 years go could we have returned to the moon by know, could we have established a moonbase, gone to MArs?

You can also end up accomplishing less than we would on our own, depending on how all the project responsibilities, resources, and production get divided up. If done wrong, you end up with a project management nightmare where diplomats are deciding important engineering details and the work gets subdivided so finely that most of what the engineers are doing is trying to understand what other engineers from other countries are doing.

Sometimes the big advantage is just having one company do something in-house.

I believe the exact opposite. The future of ALL space exploration is collaborative. Nobody knows this more than the Chinese and the Indians. They're just staking their claim so they don't get left behind. They can still afford the punch but they have practically no background in the scientific instrument finesse that the western world excels in.
 
Yes, but that will change.

Folks here hate gov't and authority--the polar opposite of Chinese Honorifics. This might not always be great in terms of thinking in radically different terms--but it gets things done.

See how they handled SARS here:

http://discovermagazine.com/2012/apr/15-most-celebrated-virus-hunter-ian-lipkin

What happened when you arrived?


Chen Zhu, now China’s minister of health, was waiting at the airport with a red carpet. The streets were deserted. Tiananmen Square was empty. The Forbidden City was empty. The next morning we went to the Great Hall, and I’m told I am there to design their SARS program. There were 250 people waiting to hear what I wanted them to do....

The first thing I did was sit down with him, and I said, you must do two things for me. There can be no spitting on the sidewalks because this spreads all these germs. And doctors and nurses coming to see you must wash their hands. By the time I left his room half an hour later, there was a prohibition against spitting on sidewalks and there was soap and water and paper towels in hospitals.

Now compare this to the outright hostility to vaccines and FEMA we have here.
 
You're comparing government actions with public responses. Who's to say the chinese people didn't react just as poorly to the new rules as (some, mostly misguided) people do here to vaccines and FEMA?

Apples and oranges, man.
 
Nowadays, USA cannot put a rover on the moon in less than 20 years.

That's probably because we're too busy putting all kinds of rovers on Mars, the last one of which was as big as a car and was placed there by a skycrane that was never used before and could have malfunctioned in a million different ways, and yet it was completely successful.

USA put men on the moon ~50 years ago and now, it can't put a rover on the moon because of an already completed transport and landing on Mars (which will have no follow-up)?
No. It cannot put a rover on the moon because it does not have the necessary hardware and it needs 20 years to create it. Because, after said lunar landings, it not only stopped going forward, it went in full reverse.
Nowadays, in space related matters, USA is a has been, limited to orbital space, comforting itself with memories of its golden age.
Unless we forgot how to make Saturn 5 rockets, we already know how to get to the moon and it shouldn't take 20 years to do it.
 
Oh, that's pretty poorly. Bush announced the intention of building the Multipurpose Crew Vehicle a month into 2004, and said it should be done by 2008 and flying crews by 2014, which would've been 10 years to put a capsule into operation. As an aside, 10 years is also the length of time from the announcement of the Mercury program to watching a man walk on the moon. But we didn't stick with that plan.

Instead, in 2014 we're going to launch the Orion, unmanned, have it orbit the Earth twice and then re-enter, where it will be retrieved by an Amphibious Assault ship, which is almost 700 feet long and carries a crew of about four hundred. (SpaceX retrieves their Dragon with a 100 foot cargo ship and a 16 man crew.)

Then, in 2018, we're going to launch an unmanned Orion again, and three years after than we'll actually try to launch one with a crew aboard. So it will have taken NASA 17 or 18 years to design, build, and launch a manned space capsule that could've ridden up in the Space Shuttle's cargo bay, including its fully-fueled service module, except that it's a foot too wide to have fit. Then they plan to keep launching crewed missions every other year, or perhaps every four years. Mercury, Gemini, and Apollo averaged about 2.5 flights per year, even considering the gaps in between programs. With the Shuttle we were averaging four or five manned missions a year.
 
Oh, that's pretty poorly. Bush announced the intention of building the Multipurpose Crew Vehicle a month into 2004, and said it should be done by 2008 and flying crews by 2014, which would've been 10 years to put a capsule into operation. As an aside, 10 years is also the length of time from the announcement of the Mercury program to watching a man walk on the moon. But we didn't stick with that plan.

Instead, in 2014 we're going to launch the Orion, unmanned, have it orbit the Earth twice and then re-enter, where it will be retrieved by an Amphibious Assault ship, which is almost 700 feet long and carries a crew of about four hundred. (SpaceX retrieves their Dragon with a 100 foot cargo ship and a 16 man crew.)

Then, in 2018, we're going to launch an unmanned Orion again, and three years after than we'll actually try to launch one with a crew aboard. So it will have taken NASA 17 or 18 years to design, build, and launch a manned space capsule that could've ridden up in the Space Shuttle's cargo bay, including its fully-fueled service module, except that it's a foot too wide to have fit. Then they plan to keep launching crewed missions every other year, or perhaps every four years. Mercury, Gemini, and Apollo averaged about 2.5 flights per year, even considering the gaps in between programs. With the Shuttle we were averaging four or five manned missions a year.
Not seeing how any of that is poor...

Rather they take their time and do it right.
 
Not seeing how any of that is poor...

Rather they take their time and do it right.

The point is it used to take 10 years to "do it right", now it takes 30 years to do the same thing "right" again. It's pretty poor.

The problem is that NASA is a jobs program these days. They have to decentralize work to enough Congressional districts to keep up support to the point that programs stagnate.
 
Stagnate my foot. SLS is below budget and they have already done tests on near full size tanks.

The real difference is that von Braun didn't have a blogosphere of folks trying to get the Saturn V HLLV killed before it was even made. Things take time. Space X is no spring chicken either--and if you go by timetables, then Musk is doing poorly in that SLS is at the physical article stage AHEAD OF SCHEDULE and it is BFR that is only a powerpoint rocket at this point.

Arsenal method works--if people will let it.

Sojourner forgets that JPL can be described as a jobs program for Pasadena too.
But even if this were true--it is not a bad thing in that it allows political support.

It is good that NASA is spread over the South, for the Red Staters there would likely kill NASA if it were seen as a Northeastern liberal program. Now talk about poor progress! The Southern inclination actually allows support from folks who normally want to kill anything gov't does.

The common "wisdom" is that NASA is slowed by "standing armies." It is more realistic to see them as standing constituencies that vote--without which there may not even be a NASA, whose shoulders (COTS money) Musk has ridden on, much to ULA's disgust.

ULA floated all the bogus HLV bashing depot nonsense that ULA's own Josh Hopkins has questioned in his piece Doubts about Depots. Space Safety Magazine has already pointed out boil-off problems depots have in losing hydrogen--that will be a problem using piecemeal approaches with lots of medium class LVs that will cost as much if not more than fewer, larger of larger HLVs with higher volumetric efficency and simpler assembly.

People bought into this scheme which was just a way to kill Ares V and force the EELV stable onto NASA, and kudos to Mike Griffin for standing up to the USAF and ULA.

But the damage is done, and the anti-HLV propaganda has put to seed in folks minds, even though these same folks have Musk in their sights, and given time--will go after him with other self-serving arguements, as aerospace corp has already done:
http://www.trekbbs.com/showpost.php?p=8983858&postcount=9
http://nationalspacestudiescenter.w...ce-and-what-do-they-want-in-commercial-space/

So it has been because of "big gov't" NASA funding into both HLV and Musk's cheaper rockets, that ULA's strangle hold monopoly has been broken--and that's a good thing. For once, the civilians have told the USAF to quit interfering in space matters.

I see no evidence of stagnation, which as an overall complaint was debunked by other posters in its own thread.

In this era, we crave novety--if we don't see something done today--we think things go slowly. I blame this on our short attention span theatre culture--not a lack of progress.
 
Last edited:
If you are not already a member then please register an account and join in the discussion!

Sign up / Register


Back
Top