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UARS satellite parts have 1 in 3,200 chance of striking Earth

adereL

Cadet
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The Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite was revolving about the world during the last twenty years. The satellite reached what National Aeronautics and Space Administration called "the end of a productive scientific life" a full six years back. UARS is expected to come back to Earth soon. By Saturday, the satellite will re-enter the atmosphere.

How long UARS has been around


The Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite was first put into orbit in 1991. The satellite was meant to study the Earth's atmosphere, specifically the ozone layer. The UARS was not supposed to last long. It was only intended to be around three years at first. After 14 years, UARS was running with at least 60 percent of the instruments still working, but NASA chose to shut it down. There was gold foil-like material covering most of UARS which is the size of a bus.

Re-entry may be messy


The satellite has been in what NASA calls a "heavily decaying orbit," and it estimates that UARS will re-enter Earth's atmosphere sometime between Sept. 22 and 24. The majority of the satellite is expected to break up in the atmosphere and melt away, but as much as 100 separate pieces will not melt away entirely. The portions might be very heavy. They could weigh as much as 300 pounds. There's a 1 in 3,200 chance that any UARS piece will hit land, National Aeronautics and Space Administration estimates. There is only one continent that does not have to be concerned. That is Antarctica. The chances that each piece will hit an individual are very slim. It is 1 in 20 trillion.

NASA keeping things safe


There will be updates from National Aeronautics and Space Administration every two hours. The UARS satellite will be safe. Even with that, the best estimate is that NASA will be able to provide two hours' warning on the UARS re-entry. Solar activity is blamed for the speed of UARS's fall. The communication satellite difficulties are also blamed on the activity. The UARS parts may fall quickly, but it is just one of 22,000 pieces of “space junk” going around the earth every day.

Information from


MSNBC: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/44580262/ns/technology_and_science-space/#.Tneq2mOP-_0

NPR: http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2011/09/19/140598814/space-junk-will-fall-to-earth-this-week

NASA.gov: (PDF) http://www.nasa.gov/pdf/585584main_UARS_Status.pdf

Slatest: http://slatest.slate.com/posts/2011...e_expected_to_crash_into_earth_on_friday.html

LA Times: http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/nat...pert-on-why-nasa-needs-to-clean-up-space.html
 
Congress should call some NASA officials up to the hill to explain why this satellite wasn't decelerated to a controlled reentry into the Pacific Ocean while it still had propellants on board.
 
Everything I've read says it's coming down in Canadian territory. Fortunately most of our population is along the US border so we've got lots of empty space for it to hit.
 
Everything I've read says it's coming down in Canadian territory. Fortunately most of our population is along the US border so we've got lots of empty space for it to hit.
What have you been reading?
Update #8
Thu, 22 Sep 2011 04:44:51 AM GMT-0700


As of 7 a.m. EDT Sept. 22, 2011, the orbit of UARS was 115 mi by 120 mi (185 km by 195 km). Re-entry is expected sometime during the afternoon of Sept. 23, Eastern Daylight Time. The satellite will not be passing over North America during that time period. It is still too early to predict the time and location of re-entry with any more certainty, but predictions will become more refined in the next 24 to 36 hours.

http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/uars/index.html
 
Oh, ya know, the news. The BBC. The CBC. Last time I read about it was two days ago.

And you're quoting update #8. It's changed a few times. CBC is now running the headline... "Don't worry, it's not going to hint NA after all..."
 
orbitdisplay.aspx
 
And the latest news says that things have changed again and there's a "low probability" it may hit the US.
 
Wanderlust, I've been relying on HeavensAbove, too. But I notice the Epoch hasn't changed since 10:34 UTC this morning. Is that accurate enough for this object?
 
And according to the news this morning, unconfirmed reports says parts of it did come down in Canada.

No wonder we can't reliably track asteroids. We can't even track satellites that we know are there. ;)
 
One of its orbits yesterday took it right over my house. It would have been neat to spot it before it completely fell out of the sky to see if it had begun to incandesce, but I live in a place where the weather always checks to make sure there's something interesting in space before clouding up and raining.

I swear, if the great astronomers of history had grown up where I currently live, we'd know a lot more about the manufacture of umbrellas.
 
This is a test of the emergency broadcast system. If this had been an actual emergency...

Ha! Now the news has dismissed the reports than anything came down in Alberta and has NASA saying debris "likely didn't reach land". 2011 and that's the best we can do for tracking?
 
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