TV Ratings (Friday 21st January)...Learn the fate of FRINGE
- Thread starter Jax
- Start date
FOX has not enjoyed such demo numbers on friday for a long time and infact while Fringe loss a small portion of viewers it GAINED in the 18-49 demo from its last airing 
FOX has made it very clear that they would seriously consider a 4th season if the show pulled in around 1.6 demo because FOX has had nothing near that for years. At the moment I would say the chances of getting at least 13 more episodes minimum just went up.
Next week CSI:NY returns but thats mainly older viewers and Supernatural the real threat is back. At this point I will say 1.7 next week with around 4.4 million.
FOX has made it very clear that they would seriously consider a 4th season if the show pulled in around 1.6 demo because FOX has had nothing near that for years. At the moment I would say the chances of getting at least 13 more episodes minimum just went up.
Next week CSI:NY returns but thats mainly older viewers and Supernatural the real threat is back. At this point I will say 1.7 next week with around 4.4 million.
LEARN THE FATE OF FRINGE
Great tag line, sounds like the closer to an advert. You should go into marketing!! LOL
I've missed a lot of Fringe but plan to get caught up. I understand it's still putting out quality material.
Great tag line, sounds like the closer to an advert. You should go into marketing!! LOL
I've missed a lot of Fringe but plan to get caught up. I understand it's still putting out quality material.
At least Fringe got a solid demo. I need to rent the DVDs or something (it's not on Netflix Instant 
) and catch up. But as long as it's on at the same time as Supernatural, I won't be watching it when it airs. That's not much of a problem, though, since I don't have a Nielsen box or a DVR. The networks hate people like me. 
) and catch up. But as long as it's on at the same time as Supernatural, I won't be watching it when it airs. That's not much of a problem, though, since I don't have a Nielsen box or a DVR. The networks hate people like me. 
More good news the ratings went up in the last 30 mins so the audience didn't bolt halfway through. There will be a dip no doubt with CSI NY, Supernatural and Spring's warmer weather to come but its gone fron likely to be cancelled to on the bubble and a few more weeks of this and it will be most likely to be renewed...
FOX will be loving a 1.9 on friday nights.
FOX will be loving a 1.9 on friday nights.
Not really but it can help a network decide to maybe try a show in a new slot or wait to look at things like DVD sales before making their call.
I don't think CSI-NEW York is new next week. I believe it's still in reruns.
And while I like the look of the 1.9, here is something to think about.
Historically Fringe's strongest period in demos is the January to first week of February. With significant lifts over its fall season average.
That didn't happen here. In fact It basically tied its fall average (within rounding).
Its fall average was down 17% year to year. This episodes is down 32% versus the first new episode last year. Which is a significant drop. Or using the same week to week comparison on the year to year its down roughly 25%.
Now it is possible that the move to Friday has completely changed its typical pattern, but we wont know that for several weeks.
The plus side is that it won the time slot and didn't drop in the half hours.
The negative is that Kitchen Nightmares managed the same ratings minus lead in, and at a far, far cheaper cost to Fox. And that it didn't face any original scripted programming. That wont be the case by February. Negative is also Fox actually really advertised the move, typically that inflates the first showing. So we could be looking at larger tehn normal season declines.
Of course with the ad push it is also possible that some viewers will stick around, but that isn't typical, but it has occurred.
And while I like the look of the 1.9, here is something to think about.
Historically Fringe's strongest period in demos is the January to first week of February. With significant lifts over its fall season average.
That didn't happen here. In fact It basically tied its fall average (within rounding).
Its fall average was down 17% year to year. This episodes is down 32% versus the first new episode last year. Which is a significant drop. Or using the same week to week comparison on the year to year its down roughly 25%.
Now it is possible that the move to Friday has completely changed its typical pattern, but we wont know that for several weeks.
The plus side is that it won the time slot and didn't drop in the half hours.
The negative is that Kitchen Nightmares managed the same ratings minus lead in, and at a far, far cheaper cost to Fox. And that it didn't face any original scripted programming. That wont be the case by February. Negative is also Fox actually really advertised the move, typically that inflates the first showing. So we could be looking at larger tehn normal season declines.
Of course with the ad push it is also possible that some viewers will stick around, but that isn't typical, but it has occurred.
^ and I thought I was Mister Negative. :P
It's on Fridays and they want to keep JJ happy, so their hopes have been lowered.
i was thinking it would get 3.70 million and a 1.2 demo, so it's better than nothing. Loyal fanbases are being rewarded more... or so I hope.
It's on Fridays and they want to keep JJ happy, so their hopes have been lowered.
i was thinking it would get 3.70 million and a 1.2 demo, so it's better than nothing. Loyal fanbases are being rewarded more... or so I hope.
Well the range for drops versus the year ago numbers for the first episode on a move to Friday has been plus 10% to minus 40%. So a year to year decline of 25% (thats the same week to week on the year ago) isn't bad, but it also isn't that great either.
Take SN which is another show that moved from 9pm Thursday to 9pm Friday. Its drop for its first episode on its switch was zero. It didn't have one. It actually featured a year to year gain of nearly 10%.
And fans went nuts. Of course since that time the ratings have dropped and are now currently running about 17% down versus its most recent original year to go numbers.
Year to year Fringe before the move was already down 17%, this episode has increased the drop, it remains to be seen if this week is atypical (either good or bad) or if they decline will continue, which most every show moving to Friday has had happen.
Next week Fringe gets a tiny bit more competition with SN (though it shouldn't hurt it much), we will also see any week to week decline. That would be a bad sign. Again Fringe typically holds very strong for a four week period here, before its ratings start to really slide.
And by February we will have full competition to factor it against.
I wouldn't be quick to judge a success or a failure until at least two full weeks of full competition.
Take SN which is another show that moved from 9pm Thursday to 9pm Friday. Its drop for its first episode on its switch was zero. It didn't have one. It actually featured a year to year gain of nearly 10%.
And fans went nuts. Of course since that time the ratings have dropped and are now currently running about 17% down versus its most recent original year to go numbers.
Year to year Fringe before the move was already down 17%, this episode has increased the drop, it remains to be seen if this week is atypical (either good or bad) or if they decline will continue, which most every show moving to Friday has had happen.
Next week Fringe gets a tiny bit more competition with SN (though it shouldn't hurt it much), we will also see any week to week decline. That would be a bad sign. Again Fringe typically holds very strong for a four week period here, before its ratings start to really slide.
And by February we will have full competition to factor it against.
I wouldn't be quick to judge a success or a failure until at least two full weeks of full competition.
If it dropped that quickly to a 1.2 it would be one of the largest drops in recent years for a show going to Friday.
As for making JJ happy, they have already picked up a pilot order for one of his projects (and it isn't like they need many). Its an ok start, not a disaster that you seemed to believe was going to happen, but it wasn't a get out of jail card either.
Fox doesn't need Fringe, I can't say that enough.
But if it can win its timeslot for the spring that would be good PR for FOX even if they take a loss in revenue.
Look at this way. Last Year Fringe went from a 2.8 (start of January) and managed to drop all the way down to the end of the season at a 2.0. I don't think Fringe can afford to lose the same percentage this year.
That would take us from a 1.9 to a 1.3. That would put the the show in the danger zone.
And again we really don't want to see Kitchen Nightmares doing as well or doing better. Its cost very little compared to the license fee Fox has to pay Warners. You don't want to see a network see cheap reality fare performing as well as expensive scripted programming.
KN has been around a while, I would say any new show reality show would struggle to get similar demos as Fringe & KN. I also very doubt FOX are making a loss from FRINGE, the profit might be smaller than usual but I bet they are making money off it. FOX wants to show it can get a 18-49 demo on fridays with scripted drama they keep trying and now they might just has.
Unless FOX want a PR nightmare, they will probably keep there word and that was an 80% of the demo moving with Fringe to fridays, well so far its better than 100%. HOWEVER if it drops then begin to bite your nails everyone
I would of assumed when making a deal to air someone elses show you would give them a small cut but a cut nonetheless. No doubt any season 4 would see a re-work of the fee paid to air FRINGE and a cut in the budget and episodes.
FOX aired Human Target the week on fridays and scored 4.7 million and 1.3/4 at 8pm (9pm was a little lower). I do wonder being there own show if they are thinking about a fall option of HT & Fringe...
HT might get a boost on the same night as Fringe plus being FOX show can afford a little less in demo.
HT might get a boost on the same night as Fringe plus being FOX show can afford a little less in demo.
Human Target was moved to Friday for three reasons.
They had unexpected coverage of the shottings that took one of the slots that Human Target was going to air.
2. They expanded Idol to a two hour block (smart choice as it was the most watched show on tv that isn't football.
3. Friday they had planned repeats, so putting two originals makes sense.
But I don't think Fox did this move (especially at the last minute) in hopes of seeing how Human Target would actually play on Friday.
They had unexpected coverage of the shottings that took one of the slots that Human Target was going to air.
2. They expanded Idol to a two hour block (smart choice as it was the most watched show on tv that isn't football.
3. Friday they had planned repeats, so putting two originals makes sense.
But I don't think Fox did this move (especially at the last minute) in hopes of seeing how Human Target would actually play on Friday.
Jax many shows make a loss on original broadcast. But without knowing the actual license fee, nor knowing how much both in advance ad purchases and spot sales throughout the year are, its impossible for the lay person to track.
But that is one of the reasons networks really like to keep shows produced in house as the ancillary markets are usually where your real profit comes in, especially for marginal performers. Hell its the only thing keeping the CW going, as they have never earned a profit off original broadcast.
If Fringe was made by Fox half of the worrying would already be over.
Lets put it this way, Heroes at 4.5 million and a over a 2.0 demo was losing money on original broadcast.
So its certainly possible that Fringe is not making an immediate profit of the initial broadcast (they still earn revenue off the initial rerun, though they never admit how much that is in relationship to how much they must pay out to above line talent both in front and behind the camera). Now that doesn't mean networks will kill a show. In some cases even if they earn nothing are willing for PR purposes to keep a show around a while.
As for a new reality show equaling the demo's of Fringe this week (or Kitchen Nightmares) well they don't have to.
Most broadcast scripted hour longs run between 3 to 5 million an episode. Most reality shows not titled Idol, Survivor or Amazing Race cost around a million to a 1.5 million.
That means you can get much lower ratings and achieve the same amount of earned cash.
Its why so many shows are newsmagazines or reality shows are currently on Friday. They cost little in relationship to most scripted shows, and thus don't need large ratings to generate a profit.
But that is one of the reasons networks really like to keep shows produced in house as the ancillary markets are usually where your real profit comes in, especially for marginal performers. Hell its the only thing keeping the CW going, as they have never earned a profit off original broadcast.
If Fringe was made by Fox half of the worrying would already be over.
Lets put it this way, Heroes at 4.5 million and a over a 2.0 demo was losing money on original broadcast.
So its certainly possible that Fringe is not making an immediate profit of the initial broadcast (they still earn revenue off the initial rerun, though they never admit how much that is in relationship to how much they must pay out to above line talent both in front and behind the camera). Now that doesn't mean networks will kill a show. In some cases even if they earn nothing are willing for PR purposes to keep a show around a while.
As for a new reality show equaling the demo's of Fringe this week (or Kitchen Nightmares) well they don't have to.
Most broadcast scripted hour longs run between 3 to 5 million an episode. Most reality shows not titled Idol, Survivor or Amazing Race cost around a million to a 1.5 million.
That means you can get much lower ratings and achieve the same amount of earned cash.
Its why so many shows are newsmagazines or reality shows are currently on Friday. They cost little in relationship to most scripted shows, and thus don't need large ratings to generate a profit.