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Fleet Captain
For example - let's say a time traveller wants to kill a person in the past. He knows that his victim originally lived beyond the past day he chose for his assasination attempt. He also has detailed knowledge about the victim's activities in that day and has concieved his assasination plan accordingly.
The time traveller will only be stopped:
if his weapon malfunctions - which is extremely improbable, because, let's say, he checked the weapon in detail prior to the time travel; he could also try to assasinate his victim multiple times with different weapons, until he accomplishes his goal;
if a victim's friend interferes - which did not happen in the original timeline;
if another time traveller interferes - which did not happen in the original timeline;
etc.
But see, that's the thing. According to the Novikov SCP, one of those seemingly improbable things *will* happen, if it's the only way to avert a paradox, and that seemingly improbable thing will have always been part of the timeline. If I understand the SCP correctly, the logic goes something like this:
- Quantum mechanics governs the outcome of events in a probabilistic way. Maybe the probability of a particular particle being observed with a clockwise spin is 50%, while the probability of it being observed with a counterclockwise spin is also 50%.
- If you add time travel into the mix, then certain outcomes will lead to paradoxes....a particular particle having a clockwise spin might cause that particle to collide with itself and prevent itself from time traveling in the first place.
- The universe disallows any of those states (that would lead to paradoxes) from existing. The quantum probabilities of things happening will be skewed in such a way so that only self-consistent timeloops can exist. And the thinking is that, for any set of initial conditions, there is at least *one* self-consistent solution. So no matter what you do, there will be perfect self-consistency, and no paradoxes will arise.
At least, this is my reading of the example with the billiard ball. The billiard ball hits itself at just the right angle, because that's the only way to avoid a paradox.
As I said - in the second edit of my previous post

"In conclusion, in order to stop the well informed time traveller, the Novikov Consistency Principle has to break either causality (when events from the time traveller's past have changed without a cause) or probability (when extremly improbable events from the traveller's present or future are happening just to stop him)."
As you can see, I'm basically agrreing with you.
However, the Novikov Consistency Principle strikes me as doing exactly what it tries to prevent - breaking causality or probability (by causing ludicrously improbable events to occur) in order to preserve causality.
That's why, in my first post in this thread, I chose a modified version of the many-worlds theory (my modification, that is

"Personally, I beleive information, at least, can be sent into the past. What happens then?
Let's say a new timeline appears and the old one disappears.
But, in this case, where did the information that changed the past come from? From nowhere? In this case, the information disappears and the old timeline reappears.
But, if the old timeline exists again, then that information also exists. And if the information exists, then the new timeline appears again and the old timeline vanishes.
And so forth.
Essentially, I'm saying that both timelines exist, but consecutively not simultaneously."