Right. Just because we won't be top dog anymore doesn't mean we'll be a Third World country. Though some people might feel like it's the same thing.
The World Order in 2100
- Thread starter Rii
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Right. Just because we won't be top dog anymore doesn't mean we'll be a Third World country. Though some people might feel like it's the same thing.
Rii
Rear Admiral
All of your points of issue ignore the rapidly closing gap between developing and developed nations and the corresponding increasing correlation between population and national power.
By 2100 Turkey's population will outstrip that of any EU member and be coupled with a similar level of development. Conversely, Russia's will fall significantly over the same period to below that of Turkey.
Let's look at the big four EU states (I'd use the 'big five' incl. Spain but I don't have all data for it here) and Russia and Turkey:
GDP 2009 (in billions of USD)
1. Germany: 2833 (5.5x Turkey)
2. United Kingdom: 2320
3. France: 2203
4. Italy: 1732
5. Russia: 869
6. Turkey: 509
Population ~2009 (in millions)
1. Russia: 141
2. Germany: 81
3. Turkey: 72
4. France: 65
5. United Kingdom: 62
6. Italy: 60
Projected GDP 2050 (in billions of USD)
1. United Kingdom: 4997
2. Germany: 4535 (1.3x Turkey)
3. France: 4528
4. Russia: 4297
5. Turkey: 3536
6. Italy: 2580
Projected Population 2100 (in millions)
1. Turkey: 90
2. Russia: 80
3. Germany: 73
4. United Kingdom: 64
5. France: 60
6. Italy: 34
No, I'm not ignoring anything. You're oversimplifying. Yes, economic power will be more closely tied to population than today. However, it won't be completely tied to it. So, Turkey's population *might* be more than other European countries (it's growth rate is expected to decrease). Additionally, the other European countries have a head start in terms of technological and educational development. The educational and culture aspects will be particularly hard to change to match a top economy.
Turkey may close the gap somewhat but it'll be difficult. German will remain the lead for quite sometime. Germany has an education and culture that is much more oriented towards technology, precision, and efficiency. I'm not saying Germany is better, but its culture and education is more consistent with economic power. Turkey can and probably will change it's society along these (which I think is too bad really, I like Turkey the way it is, but such is "progress") but these types of changes are more resistant to change than mere technological developments.
Culture plays a huge role in development that you are totally overlooking.
Mr Awe
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Rii
Rear Admiral
No, I'm not. That's why I'm assigning the United States and the European Union, separately, equal footing with China in 2100, when merely in terms of GDP China will almost certainly surpass both the EU and United States combined.
The structural advantages are very much meaningful across a generation or two. But they didn't save the United Kingdom from being eclipsed by a rising Germany, and they won't 'save' Germany from being eclipsed by Turkey over the course of the next century either.
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an alien invasion in 2031, succcessfully defeated by joint military action of NATO, Russia, China and a few hangers-on, sees the rapid formation of a new United Earth goveernment. Within five years, alien technology has been reverse-engineered allowing super-light speed travel. this results in a rapid expansion of the existing lunar and martian colonisation programmes. Within ten years, colonys are being founded in the Alpha Centauri, Epsilon Eridani, Epsilon Indi, Tau Ceti, Delta Pavonis and 61 Cygni systems. A brief war is fought against a xenophobic isolationist species in the Alpha-Cent system. The race is defeated. By 2045, contact has been made with a friendly race of felinoid humanoids. they become Earth's first interstellar allies. in 2046, contact and a brief war follows with a race of lizard-like humanoids. they're defeated by a joint Earth/cat-people taask group. in 2048 contact and conflict follows with a race of insectoids and in 2050, contact is made with a race of avian-humanoids.
in 2051, a formal alliance is signed between the cat-people, the hawk-people and Earth, forming a power interstellar union covering more than fifty systems and numbering over a trillion sentients.
in 2051, a formal alliance is signed between the cat-people, the hawk-people and Earth, forming a power interstellar union covering more than fifty systems and numbering over a trillion sentients.
i don't think Russia'll ever join the EU. hell, they don't even like the ex-WarPac nations and Soviet republics joining the EU and NATO...
Personally, I don't think all ex-Warsaw Pact country are ready to join the EU (in fact, I think that the accession on Bulgaria and Romania was premature), but in general terms 50 years of Soviet domination is nothing compared to the centuries of common social, cultural, and economic history.