The Romulan evacuation and dilithium...

[eschaton]

Hey all,

I have noticed that some of the more critical elements of the fanbase for the Picard show seem incredulous at the idea that the Romulans would not have been able to totally evacuate their own population. Never mind that by my own back-of-the-hand calculations, the Romulans would need a minimum of about 40,000 ships which could carry 1,000+ people available on day one of the evacuation. The idea seems to be that with the free/easy power of the 24th century, along with replicators, it would have been trivial for the Romulans to just print out ships by the hundreds, and save themselves.

But then I remembered something important. In the Trekverse, you need dilithium to achieve faster-than-light travel. Dilithium is also strongly implied to be something which cannot be replicated, since it remains a strategic resource into the 24th century. So even if you can build ships by the hundreds, they're just impulse vessels without access to dilithium. The huge demand the Romulan evacuation would create would result in a resource shortage. Their own local sources would quickly be exhausted, and their ability to acquire outside sources via trade would be limited.

While I don't know if Picard will get into this, it makes for a great headcanon on why the Romulans could not evacuate their entire population. It also offers a great explanation on why the Federation decided after Utopia Planitia was destroyed to not continue to help the Romulans. The Federation probably blew through a significant proportion of its own strategic reserve of dilithium, and couldn't build another fleet without taking Starfleet vessels offline.

 

[NewHeavensNewEarth]

That occured to me, too, but even if it was factored in within the show, I think they want to downplay it and keep it a moral issue rather than a logistical one. One is more compelling than the other.

 

[Timo]

Romulan ships might not even use dilithium: perhaps their artificial quantum singularity powerplants are the direct result of them not having any, them thus having to develop alternative sources of power much like the embargoed South Africa went nuts with synthetic hydrocarbon fuels? Sure, there are dilithium mines on Remus, but perhaps the veins are so dry that the Star Empire can't operate on that? Comparable Federation mines appeared to be much less extensive endeavors: you don't need a species of slaves if you can just keep three miners happy with postal order wives.

I don't find it a good idea to rationalize why the UFP couldn't help the Romulans, when the dramatic point seems to be they instead chose not to. But yes, Starfleet is always short on ships, the heroes seldom having the luxury of backup, and the organization never having so many ships that they could respond to crises in time, instead of just sending the heroes at the fifty-ninth minute of the eleventh hour. The result of technological bottlenecks? More probably a pragmatic decision not to overreach, because the Milky Way offers infinite challenge anyway.

Was the Romulan evacuation a failure or not? Nero's wife died, but how many others went with her? How many were saved? So far, we only learn that the UFP involvement was a failure, practically and politically. And that harebrained attempts at stopping or countermanding the actual disaster event were failures. In general, the evacuation may have proceeded just fine, with ample Romulan resources. Or been postponed past the tipover point so that hordes of Romulans died despite bountiful evacuation resources.

Specifically as regards dilithium, evacuation via starship is hardly the only possible means. Launching out slower-than-light space colonies or cryochamber barges ought to work, too: whip them up during the first of the four years allocated, and accelerate out for the next three, and the supernova is unlikely to catch them before being greatly diluted. But that's a measure a starship-capable and paranoid society might well choose not to take until it's way too late.

We never learned how the Vians expected to save a planet's population from a stellar disaster in "The Empath". Somehow, it was an all-or-nothing effort, with only one population out of at least two eligible for salvation. Would the quoted "transport to safety" have involved transportation in ships? Or transport as in transporter? Where to? Another star system? Another plane of existence? The impregnable innards of a planet? The Federation had nothing to offer in that instance, or Kirk probably would have offered it. Evacuation of entire planetfuls may face hurdles we are not aware of...

Timo Saloniemi

 

[Unimatrix Q]

Was the Romulan evacuation a failure or not? Nero's wife died, but how many others went with her? How many were saved?

Actually we can't be sure that she died. Might be that she was evacuated and Nero didn't knew about her whereabouts and simply assumed that she was killed by the supernova...

 

[Noname Given]

Romulan ships might not even use dilithium: perhaps their artificial quantum singularity powerplants are the direct result of them not having any, them thus having to develop alternative sources of power much like the embargoed South Africa went nuts with synthetic hydrocarbon fuels? Sure, there are dilithium mines on Remus, but perhaps the veins are so dry that the Star Empire can't operate on that? Comparable Federation mines appeared to be much less extensive endeavors: you don't need a species of slaves if you can just keep three miners happy with postal order wives.

I don't find it a good idea to rationalize why the UFP couldn't help the Romulans, when the dramatic point seems to be they instead chose not to. But yes, Starfleet is always short on ships, the heroes seldom having the luxury of backup, and the organization never having so many ships that they could respond to crises in time, instead of just sending the heroes at the fifty-ninth minute of the eleventh hour. The result of technological bottlenecks? More probably a pragmatic decision not to overreach, because the Milky Way offers infinite challenge anyway.

Was the Romulan evacuation a failure or not? Nero's wife died, but how many others went with her? How many were saved? So far, we only learn that the UFP involvement was a failure, practically and politically. And that harebrained attempts at stopping or countermanding the actual disaster event were failures. In general, the evacuation may have proceeded just fine, with ample Romulan resources. Or been postponed past the tipover point so that hordes of Romulans died despite bountiful evacuation resources.

Specifically as regards dilithium, evacuation via starship is hardly the only possible means. Launching out slower-than-light space colonies or cryochamber barges ought to work, too: whip them up during the first of the four years allocated, and accelerate out for the next three, and the supernova is unlikely to catch them before being greatly diluted. But that's a measure a starship-capable and paranoid society might well choose not to take until it's way too late.

We never learned how the Vians expected to save a planet's population from a stellar disaster in "The Empath". Somehow, it was an all-or-nothing effort, with only one population out of at least two eligible for salvation. Would the quoted "transport to safety" have involved transportation in ships? Or transport as in transporter? Where to? Another star system? Another plane of existence? The impregnable innards of a planet? The Federation had nothing to offer in that instance, or Kirk probably would have offered it. Evacuation of entire planetfuls may face hurdles we are not aware of...

Timo Saloniemi

Um in ST:NEM - Shinzon mentions the Remans are used primarily to mine Dilithium from there...so not only do they have a source of Dilithium, it's right next door to their Homeworld.

 

[Timo]

I did say that. But perhaps it's not enough for their needs?

We have little idea on where Earth gets its dilithium. I mean, Corvan II was said to be an important source, but Stamets said that dilithium mining was a big ecological problem, meaning it couldn't have been limited to a few individual mines. Remus might have been used up in the 2,000 years of Romulan starflight long before they had to confront the Feds or the Klingons or anybody else much; the Remans might be scraping up the remaining shards for export since they're not gonna help the Empire in other ways.

Timo Saloniemi

 

[Captain Moe]

This while thing about the nova doesn't really make sense, don't you know in advance by like millions of years when your sun is going to go nova? Ok not down to the day but you have a rough time frame plus the sun becomes a red giant for millions of years before going nova.

They would have had ample time to evacuate their entire civilization with or without the help of the Federation.

I am guessing there has to be a non natural reason for their sun to have gone nova before it's time.

 

[Timo]

This while thing about the nova doesn't really make sense, don't you know in advance by like millions of years when your sun is going to go nova?

Probably not. I mean, nobody from the human species has ever tried, and gotten it either right or wrong.

Oh, there are theories. But no evidence. This isn't something that scientists can put to a test. And most of the things we thought we knew about space are wrong anyway, and the situation isn't likely to improve much before we get dilithium-powered, warp-engined starships that can actually go there and have a look.

Today, we model such things on a computer. We've been doing that for a couple of decades now. And the remarkable thing about such simulations is that they are worthless: the next one always disproves the previous one. Say, models on how the Moon might have formed are being "improved" every year, and they are impressive palaces of cards indeed - but they can't agree on a result, or even gyrate visibly towards one. We simply don't know, and we certainly shouldn't pat ourselves on the shoulder for thinking we do.

Ok not down to the day but you have a rough time frame plus the sun becomes a red giant for millions of years before going nova.

Again, nobody has been around for millions of years to see if that's really true. And it doesn't help if we have a rule proven by an exception, not if the exception is what kills us.

Timo Saloniemi

 

[Noname Given]

From episode 2 - based on the date in the Mars attack flashback, it appears the Romulans had at least 2 years (and maybe more because it appears construction had been going on a while and they already had a number of ships completed or near completion) of a warning before the Supernova.

 

[Timo]

...Although whether the warning said "explosion in 3.5 years and counting" or "probability of explosion in the next 50 years at 47% now", we don't know yet.

I could well see the Romulan government refusing to evacuate, while making sure that the hoi polloi had their warpshuttles packed at all times and ready to go. Even in the former case, and especially in the latter. This would have called for no resources to be tied down or expended, and thus would have automatic appeal.

Timo Saloniemi

 

[Captain Moe]

Probably not. I mean, nobody from the human species has ever tried, and gotten it either right or wrong.

Oh, there are theories. But no evidence. This isn't something that scientists can put to a test. And most of the things we thought we knew about space are wrong anyway, and the situation isn't likely to improve much before we get dilithium-powered, warp-engined starships that can actually go there and have a look.

Today, we model such things on a computer. We've been doing that for a couple of decades now. And the remarkable thing about such simulations is that they are worthless: the next one always disproves the previous one. Say, models on how the Moon might have formed are being "improved" every year, and they are impressive palaces of cards indeed - but they can't agree on a result, or even gyrate visibly towards one. We simply don't know, and we certainly shouldn't pat ourselves on the shoulder for thinking we do.



Again, nobody has been around for millions of years to see if that's really true. And it doesn't help if we have a rule proven by an exception, not if the exception is what kills us.

Timo Saloniemi

You make some very good and valid points, most which I hadn't considered. However we don't need to be around for millions of years, we have data now, we can see red giants in the observable universe, there would be enough data to know either a star goes nova after being a red giant in years, decades, centuries or much longer.

I can't remember the episode now but it's in the early TNG seasons they study a Star about to go nova, so that spend a lot of time studying these things. Now you could be right a Star goes nova a lot quicker then we belive but then that would be a far more common thing in the Star Trek universe.

 

[F. King Daniel]

From episode 2 - based on the date in the Mars attack flashback, it appears the Romulans had at least 2 years (and maybe more because it appears construction had been going on a while and they already had a number of ships completed or near completion) of a warning before the Supernova.

The BTS material says Picard left the Enterprise in 2381 for a "special assignment" which the show makes clear was to head up the evacuation.

 

[Timo]

You make some very good and valid points, most which I hadn't considered. However we don't need to be around for millions of years, we have data now, we can see red giants in the observable universe, there would be enough data to know either a star goes nova after being a red giant in years, decades, centuries or much longer.

That doesn't actually follow. Very few supernovas can be observed overall; there hasn't been one for us to see in the Milky Way since the 17th century! Sure, current models of supernova development fit the data we get from more distant detonations (although of those, only the 1987 supernova in the Large Magellanic Cloud was of a star we had any relevant previous data on), but a hundred completely different models would fit that scant data, too. We really are just guessing. And that's regarding things that have happened. Space might yet show us wonders we have never encountered before in any form. Or then simply a different shade of supernova.

I can't remember the episode now but it's in the early TNG seasons they study a Star about to go nova, so that spend a lot of time studying these things. Now you could be right a Star goes nova a lot quicker then we believe but then that would be a far more common thing in the Star Trek universe.

That was "Evolution", with the nanites. The nova depicted there was probably the most scientifically accurate piece of astronomy ever featured in Star Trek. But it wasn't a supernova! Those are two completely different things, related to each other about as much as an ant is to an anteater or to anthrax. Novas as depicted are triggered by interaction we can observe. Supernovas are spontaneous. As far as we can tell, which, as said, isn't very far.

Trek and especially TOS often uses nova (or perhaps 'nova?) as a synonym for supernova. Perhaps the usage has changed with time, though, and apparently for the better.

There is every opportunity for PIC to paint the Romulan supernova as an artificial, perhaps malicious or possibly accidental happenstance. But also every opportunity for it to be natural yet unpredictable. Indeed, it would appear the most likely that vast interstellar empires with the capacity to evacuate planets would fail to do so if they firmly believed in their supernova models and therefore disbelieved in this one happening...

Timo Saloniemi

 

[Kor]

According to Spock's monologue in ST09, the star went supernova sooner than anticipated.

Kor

 

[Timo]

Not really. He says the "unthinkable" happens. Not the "unpredictable" or even the "surprising". He never even confesses to having been late to the party: after Romulus is dust, he still has "little time".

But none of that goes against the idea that the supernova blew before its predicted time. Or that nobody had any real idea when it would blow.

Timo Saloniemi

 

[Ronald Held]

Late,but.. Singularity drives should not need Dilithium, but every Romulan starship is not powered by AGS, hence some need to Dilithium.

 

[Noname Given]

Late,but.. Singularity drives should not need Dilithium, but every Romulan starship is not powered by AGS, hence some need to Dilithium.

None of the Starships of the Federation or the Romulan Empire are POWERED by Dilithium Crystals - the Feds use Mattetr/Anti-Matter reactors (and the power produced when matter and anti-matter collide and wiped each other out); and the Romulans use the gravituc enegy of an artifical black hole. The ships so powered use the Dilithium Crystals to control and focus the energy (IE a Dilithium Crystal Converter Assembly as Mr. Scott called it is TOS S3 - "Elaan Of Troyius") so it can be used by the Ship's systems.