Possibly. I base my theories on Starfleet being like the US Navy, where people are promoted on a certain schedule based on solid and competent performance (but might rank up early if they're really good). A steady, reliable officer like Picard would realistically have topped out at LCDR and wound up buried in the bureaucracy somewhere on Earth.
Given that it never really happened, I think Picard's fate in "Tapestry" was either a worst case scenario or a deliberate exaggeration by Q, who was trying to make a very valid point. After all, he might have still thought he owed him one.
And again, irrelevant to Harry. He's competent and reliable, but his outstanding service has gotten him noticed multiple times. Janeway said early on that he had exceeded her expectations.