The Last Jedi Box Office discussion thread

[Smellmet]

As there's no thread of this type on here yet and with the release of the film only a month away I thought I'd kick off a box office discussion thread.

I don't think this film will be the record breaker that TFA was, I think there will be a drop off in takings, much like ANH to ESB, and TPM to AOTC, but I'm still expecting to see a very strong showing from this, so I'm interested to hear everyone's predictions. My gut feeling is that it will beat Rogue One's box office performance reasonably comfortably.

Here's my worst/best case guesses with my actual guess in brackets...

Opening weekend 160-230 (210)
Domestic 600-800 (750)
Worldwide 1.2-1.8b (1.6b)

 

[Tosk]

If I had to bet, I'd say the movie is gonna make a lot of money.

 

[Ithekro]

Based on the words "Star Wars" being in the title of a new major motion picture....it will take in a lot of money.

If it is good, it will take in even more money.

If its story comes out very strong....Disney will have earned its money back on that investment on Lucasfilm.

 

[Smellmet]

So... what are your predictions for it's performance?

 

[Reverend]

Unless anyone here is a Disney shareholder who the hell really cares what kind of money it does at the box office? I just want it to be good and to make enough money for them to keep making them good.

Anyway, the real money isn't in ticket sales, it's the merch and other licencing deals. Indeed, that's pretty much what financed episode's 5 & 6 all by themselves.

 

[Smellmet]

Unless anyone here is a Disney shareholder who the hell really cares what kind of money it does at the box office? I just want it to be good and to make enough money for them to keep making them good.

Anyway, the real money isn't in ticket sales, it's the merch and other licencing deals. Indeed, that's pretty much what financed episode's 5 & 6 all by themselves.

Well as we generally have threads like these for people's predictions/discussions for when a Trek movie comes out, what's the harm? A lot of people like to discuss box office numbers and are interested in it.

How about contributing to the discussion instead of just saying 'who the hell cares' or just maybe pass the thread by altogether if you're not interested?

 

[DimesDan]

It will make lots of money whether that is in US Dollars, Pound Sterling, Euros or Renminbi and everything in between.

 

[fireproof78]

A better question, to me, for discussion, is can it perform so poorly that a Star Wars film won't be made?

 

[USS Firefly]

A better question, to me, for discussion, is can it perform so poorly that a Star Wars film won't be made?

I don't think so, you need a couple of bad perfomed Star Wars movies before they will pull the plug.
I don't think that will happen though, like Transformers these movies will keep on making profit

 

[Smellmet]

I can't see it happening, yet at least. I think matching Rogue one's numbers would be seen as the as the absolute bare minimum for TLJ, and even that would probably be seen as a disappointment.

 

[Tuskin38]

Even it does poorly, they'd probably still do a third one to finish the story.

 

[Smellmet]

I just can't see it doing poorly. There may not be the buzz of TFA but this is still the major film release of the year for me still.

I think the side movies like the solo one are the ones that are going to test the box office strength of the brand moving forward.

 

[fireproof78]

I can't see it happening, yet at least. I think matching Rogue one's numbers would be seen as the as the absolute bare minimum for TLJ, and even that would probably be seen as a disappointment.

I think if negative word of mouth spreads, then it has the potential to be a disappointment.

 

[Smellmet]

Critically, yes but I think it will still bring in big numbers.

 

[Reverend]

Star Wars movies have never really been critical darlings and it's never hindered the box office before. In order to have a significant impact on the take--much less actually make a loss--they would have to do something *really* disastrous. Given what went on with the Solo movie and even recently with the kerfuffle with Electronic Arts, it's clear The Mouse is very protective if it's IP and aren't about put out a movie they think is straight-up going to stick up the joint.

 

[fireproof78]

Critically, yes but I think it will still bring in big numbers.

Big? Probably? Still could be disappointing, especially given the negative vultures that circled TFA after release. It has become far more in vogue to criticize SW properties and releases and their companies than when they announced the first SW film since 2005.

 

[Reverend]

Big? Probably? Still could be disappointing, especially given the negative vultures that circled TFA after release. It has become far more in vogue to criticize SW properties and releases and their companies than when they announced the first SW film since 2005.

That's not unique to Star Wars. Overly negative critical journalism has been on the rise for years now and the bigger the franchise, the more attention it draws.

Just to clarify, I'm not saying critics are necessarily being unfairly negative just for the sake of it, so much as when there is something to complain about, it sets off a tidal wave of clickbait articles and creates the impression that the negative aspects are being overblown.

 

[Smellmet]

That's not unique to Star Wars. Overly negative critical journalism has been on the rise for years now and the bigger the franchise, the more attention it draws.

Just to clarify, I'm not saying critics are necessarily being unfairly negative just for the sake of it, so much as when there is something to complain about, it sets off a tidal wave of clickbait articles and creates the impression that the negative aspects are being overblown.

Absolutely, just look at the reaction to STID over the last few years despite the initial good reviews. I thought the critical reaction to TFA was generally very positive also. I enjoyed it when I first saw it but once the novelty wore off it slipped way down my rankings, but that's just my personal opinion of course.

 

[fireproof78]

Absolutely, just look at the reaction to STID over the last few years despite the initial good reviews. I thought the critical reaction to TFA was generally very positive also. I enjoyed it when I first saw it but once the novelty wore off it slipped way down my rankings, but that's just my personal opinion of course.

The initial reception was very positive. But, if you look at the trend now, and not just with journalists but online reviewers, and the like, it is to be more negative towards TFA.

I feel like it is similar to ST ID, were the critics felt they could be negative right out of the gate, and frankly, they were. So, I hope I am wrong (seriously) but I see that possibility with a lot of people not quite on Christmas break checking out online reviews and making giving it a pass.

 

[Smellmet]

I think as long as the film is exciting and throws up one or two surprises it'll be fine. If it ends up being a retread of ESB then I would imagine that would start to turn audiences off, myself included.