The future of media distribution...

[USS KG5]

osted here because the technological implications are probably more relevant than the economic ones, plus it is about technology...

The future of music and film distribution is clearly headed towards online distribution, with music downloading as popular for its convenience and ease as it is for the fact it is easy to get it all for free. Ignoring the moral concerns, how long is left for the CD? Personally I will be extremely surprised if shops with racks of CDs are common in ten years, assuming they exist at all.

The big question is how long can the allure of tangible possession (physically holding your copy of the new Radiohead album) outweigh the massive advantages in terms of cost savings for the industry and consumer with online distribution. No massive factories making CDs, no shops full of staff, expensively heated and lit?

Every technical barrier to online distribution of music has been breached, with ever more efficient lossless codecs for the hi-fi enthusiasts and average bandwidth now making downloading an individual song an extremely quick process.

There are massive implications here for the future of the average living room, which are being thoroughly tested by, for example, the Xbox 360, allowing wireless streaming of media from a desktop PC in another room, and the IPod allowing a massive store of music which can be "docked" easily into your hi-fi.

Film and TV are clearly headed the same way - with the illegal market again pointing the way. Most of us have watched shows downloaded via torrents. How long does the DVD, and for that matter HD-DVD/Blu-Ray have? Most would argue that the latter represent the last ever solid state media formats, but could the true resolution to the format war be both lose out to the delivery of hi-def content over the Internet? The technology to provide the needed bandwidth already exists, again in ten years how will we all be watching films and TV shows when we want to?

I would be interested to see how many people here are aligned to this quite probable future, hence this little poll, are you....

 

[LaxScrutiny]

Everything I download, I need a disk anyway in case my HD fails or a file gets corrupt. I also have little desire to pay 4x as much for an ultra-mega-badass high speed internet connection so I can download a torrent in 4 hours instead of 6 hours, when I can go to the store and buy a disk in 20 minutes.

If the internet were as utterly fantastic as it could be, and backing up my media to disks didn't result in a coaster once every 3 or 4 tries, I might be tempted to never buy another disk. Really, I think the "Next Big Thing"(tm) which will inevitably come along to replace the internet might be more my style. I'll probably wait for it, and skip over downloading.

And of course, I'm being a bit tongue in cheek there, yes I download stuff, and it's handy sometimes, but for me, it's 5 to 10 years away from being excellent. And by then there may very well be a new "Next Big Thing". Downloading needs a better method to find anything and everything from one single search, a choice of retail for the same product so there is competition, more reliable backup and storage that does take up any of my time at all, and a huge improvement in infrastructure so bandwidth is there at a minimal price. It'll be years, if ever, before it's 20 minutes and I have a dozen disks in my hand.

 

[Deleted 2]

I'm a big fan of the honour system, and cutting out the middle man wherever possible.

I recently bought an album from a band that had all its files online, available for download. They sold CDs by mail order. Instead of getting 20 cents revenue per cd sold, they got 12 euros per cd.

I think this kind of system may also work well for authors.

It's more difficult for things like movies and tv shows, which are often the result of the collaboration of hundreds of individuals.

 

[USS KG5]

LaxScrutiny said:
Everything I download, I need a disk anyway in case my HD fails or a file gets corrupt. I also have little desire to pay 4x as much for an ultra-mega-badass high speed internet connection so I can download a torrent in 4 hours instead of 6 hours, when I can go to the store and buy a disk in 20 minutes.

A very similar rationale to mine currently.

If the internet were as utterly fantastic as it could be, and backing up my media to disks didn't result in a coaster once every 3 or 4 tries, I might be tempted to never buy another disk. Really, I think the "Next Big Thing"(tm) which will inevitably come along to replace the internet might be more my style. I'll probably wait for it, and skip over downloading.

Interesting point - it will still be called the "Internet" in 20 years but the protocols and hardware that support the monstrous amount of data travelling around then will be quite different.

And of course, I'm being a bit tongue in cheek there, yes I download stuff, and it's handy sometimes, but for me, it's 5 to 10 years away from being excellent. And by then there may very well be a new "Next Big Thing".

Well it is palusible for music right now - problem for me is the lack of decent lossless downloads. MP3 and AAC files are all well and good, but I still buy CDs and rip from them rather than as you say buying a download and burning to CD as a backup...

Downloading needs a better method to find anything and everything from one single search, a choice of retail for the same product so there is competition, more reliable backup and storage that does take up any of my time at all, and a huge improvement in infrastructure so bandwidth is there at a minimal price. It'll be years, if ever, before it's 20 minutes and I have a dozen disks in my hand.

I agree with most of that. The commercial side you describe is quickly developing, with a wide choice of download outlets available.

Bandwidth - now THAT is an interesting one. In the UK maximum practical speeds over a phone line using ADSL are around 8mbps, with cable providers offering 20mbps for home users.

However - at some point the crunch will come and people will want more, how long before we can all get 1 gig fibres installed for reasonable money?

It won't be years if ever though - 10 years from now CDs will be gone, and everything will be online in 20 - I'm certain of that.

 

[Alaedhros]

As soon as artists and record labels offer music in a lossless format without DRM, I will buy it, and good riddance with CDs.

Hard drive sizes are still too small to allow me to store movies and TV shows on my hard drive. (I'm becoming quite the TV on DVD afficionado.) In another five years that probably won't be a problem, at which point it will come down to the factors that currently prevent me from buying music online: the format and the DRM.

 

[Mr. Laser Beam]

I will continue to buy CDs as long as I can. I like having them as the ultimate backup, and also so I can re-rip them if a newer, more advanced audio codec comes along (or if I get a bigger iPod and thus have more space to play with so I can rip at higher bitrates).

If you buy something as a download, you can never re-rip it - you're stuck with what you got.

It's not the DRM that I have a problem with, really. I can live with that. But the tracks on the iTunes store that do have DRM, are ripped at an unacceptably low bitrate. Only 128Kbps. I rip at twice that.

 

[USS KG5]

Alaedhros said:
As soon as artists and record labels offer music in a lossless format without DRM, I will buy it, and good riddance with CDs.

This is indeed the Holy Grail for many people - funnily enough good lossless codecs (like FLAC) exist, but the industry is again a bit behind.

That said FLAC makes big files - efficient lossless audio compression is a dark art!

Hard drive sizes are still too small to allow me to store movies and TV shows on my hard drive. (I'm becoming quite the TV on DVD afficionado.) In another five years that probably won't be a problem, at which point it will come down to the factors that currently prevent me from buying music online: the format and the DRM.

Well the other thing that is needed for me is drive mirroring to be a standard part of desktop PCs and desktop OS's - literally a piece of software which plugs in and automatically backs up your files.

We already have something built into Vista Ultimate for multiple versions of a file - but why not on every PC? Make it simple and transparent and everyone will want it.

Babaganoosh said:
I will continue to buy CDs as long as I can. I like having them as the ultimate backup, and also so I can re-rip them if a newer, more advanced audio codec comes along (or if I get a bigger iPod and thus have more space to play with so I can rip at higher bitrates).

Indeed - CDs make and excellent, copy-protection free (mostly) source material which can be ripped at will, copied for the car and everything else that the industry MUST accept as fair use of their product if we are ever going to get to compromise.

It's not the DRM that I have a problem with, really. I can live with that. But the tracks on the iTunes store that do have DRM, are ripped at an unacceptably low bitrate. Only 128Kbps. I rip at twice that.

I agree we need a lossless alternative we can make our own CD quality backups with and re-rip to (for example) 128kbps AAC files for our ipods as we see fit.

 

[FordSVT]

Babaganoosh said:
I will continue to buy CDs as long as I can. I like having them as the ultimate backup, and also so I can re-rip them if a newer, more advanced audio codec comes along (or if I get a bigger iPod and thus have more space to play with so I can rip at higher bitrates).

If you buy something as a download, you can never re-rip it - you're stuck with what you got.

It's not the DRM that I have a problem with, really. I can live with that. But the tracks on the iTunes store that do have DRM, are ripped at an unacceptably low bitrate. Only 128Kbps. I rip at twice that.

128 is terrible and is good for nothing but ear buds, which is fine for most people listening to their MP3 players I guess. You don't even get decent bass response unless you go to at least 192, and 256 is when the average person has a hard time telling the difference between ripped and direct from the CD. I'm not hard-core enough with my sound that I insist on 320 though.

I think there will be a place for CDs for at least another 10-15 years, though I suspect fewer and fewer "music" stores will operate outside of the huge multi-media stores in major cities that are practically attractions themselves. Most CDs will be bought by the non-tech savvy from places like WalMart instead of smaller stores that sell music only, and the vast majority of teens-middle aged people are going to DL 100% of their media.

 

[Sheep]

I'm an electronics/tech geek but I won't fully embrace digital distribution until there's a way to sell back stuff I don't like or changed my mind about. Selling used CDs, DVDs and games is cake, and unfortunately something that NO digital distribution offers AFAIK.

As it stands, I have a good number of Xbox Live Arcade games that I would LOVE to get rid of since I don't play them or was otherwise misled on from a promising demo, but can't since there's no mechanism in place to do that.

 

[FordSVT]

Sheep said:
I'm an electronics/tech geek but I won't fully embrace digital distribution until there's a way to sell back stuff I don't like or changed my mind about. Selling used CDs, DVDs and games is cake, and unfortunately something that NO digital distribution offers AFAIK.

As it stands, I have a good number of Xbox Live Arcade games that I would LOVE to get rid of since I don't play them or was otherwise misled on from a promising demo, but can't since there's no mechanism in place to do that.

You should be thankful, the draconian level of hardware and software DRM required to make something like that feasible would be mind-numbing.