The Domestic Box Office run is ending, International is kicking in.

[Jedi_Master]

The fact that it will get one more full week in theaters here in the States, and at least one more full week in very limited release is pretty good - should push it to $150-5 million domestic. If it can hit $100 million with two to three solid weeks in China, that would push it close to $350 million, which should be enough to get Paramount to fully commit to a fourth film, albeit one that will be free of a big villain "twist" and thus able to fully harness the star power of all the characters involved.

 

[timtonruben359]

The fact that it will get one more full week in theaters here in the States, and at least one more full week in very limited release is pretty good - should push it to $150-5 million domestic. If it can hit $100 million with two to three solid weeks in China, that would push it close to $350 million, which should be enough to get Paramount to fully commit to a fourth film, albeit one that will be free of a big villain "twist" and thus able to fully harness the star power of all the characters involved.

Beyond will likely continue to play for a few more weeks although in increasingly more limited release. I know in Canada the movie will continue to be run until September 8. The movie should pass $150 million domestic by the weekend. I'm guessing when all is said and done Beyond will close closer to the $160 million mark.

 

[Lakenheath 72]

Jedi_Master

The $350 to $400 million figure, depending on the source, is the break even figure for the film. It is not the figure for the sequel. The film might reach this figure in the sale of DVDs, Blu-Rays, and so on.

I am skeptical the film will get $100 million in China. I was reading an article about the market in China being down from the past year. And, the trend for this film is of it learning less money than ST: ID. (The biggest indicator of this is the UK, where ST: ID earned nearly $40 million and STB earned close to $19 million, or 50% of ST: ID's take.)

 

[Jedi_Master]

Jedi_Master

The $350 to $400 million figure, depending on the source, is the break even figure for the film. It is not the figure for the sequel. The film might reach this figure in the sale of DVDs, Blu-Rays, and so on.

I am skeptical the film will get $100 million in China. I was reading an article about the market in China being down from the past year. And, the trend for this film is of it learning less money than ST: ID. (The biggest indicator of this is the UK, where ST: ID earned nearly $40 million and STB earned close to $19 million, or 50% of ST: ID's take.)

The break even point is based on the old saw that a film spends the same on the production as it does on the marketing. Other than Paramount/Skydance/HuaHua/Bad Robot/Ali Baba accountants and high level execs, no one will ever know if Beyond turned a profit, and profit alone is immaterial in the decision to green light a sequel - although making a decent amount of money can be a good "push factor" for making another film.

There are so many known unknowns that we are all just shooting bullets whilst blindfolded from the back of a horse at fleas jumping through a crosswind at 1,000 yards.

 

[ancient]

I have to wonder how much money movies really make in the Chinese market. I don't think the studio keeps the same percentage.

 

[Lakenheath 72]

The figure quoted is the one I am seeing in the trade papers. They have more knowledge of this matter than I do. The figure does tell me that Paramount got rebates for filming the film in certain locations. Personally, I am sick of the assertion that there will be a sequel. Right now, it is talk.

 

[Lakenheath 72]

In an article from 2012, from ChinaFilmBiz, the author writes,

Until the new WTO MOU was agreed early this year, imported films entitled to revenue sharing would receive from 13% to about 17.5% of the total box office receipts of their films, depending on how much the movie actually made. “Total box office receipts” is defined as the amount reported by the Office of China Film Special Funds. This figure is almost certainly always under-stated, for reasons we will see below, and because there is a material amount of skimming that takes place at China’s theaters. Before the WTO MOU, if a revenue-shared Hollywood movie earned less than 45 million yuan at the box office then it would only get 13% of the reported gross. Those films grossing more than 45 million yuan would receive as much as 17.5%. After the WTO MOU was agreed, revenue sharing films now receive a straight 25 percent of all box office receipts. Much simpler, and better for the foreign producers.

China Film and Huaxia Film receive about 22 percent of the gross from foreign releases. The rest, after taxes, goes to the exhibitors, and amounts to roughly 45 percent of the gross.

By way of comparison, local movie producers can distribute their products almost limitlessly and usually they, the producers and distributors combined receive about 43% from the gross. Generally, theaters operators receive slightly more share from Hollywood movies than from local movies.

(https://chinafilmbiz.com/2012/11/09/how-chinas-movie-distribution-system-works-part-2/)

 

[Noname Given]

The figure quoted is the one I am seeing in the trade papers. They have more knowledge of this matter than I do. The figure does tell me that Paramount got rebates for filming the film in certain locations. Personally, I am sick of the assertion that there will be a sequel. Right now, it is talk.

Well again, a 4th film WAS greenlit. Until there's news that this decision has been reversed, that's what we have to go on.

 

[Lakenheath 72]

After your comment, I did some research. Here is an article from Wikipedia on Filmmaking.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Filmmaking

Star Trek XIV is in development. For a film to be green lighted, it will need to be financed. Do we know that the next sequel is receiving financial backing?

(I have heard many announcements in my life about sequels to films, only to learn that they have gone to development hell. So, for me, until I actually read or see proof, it is just talk.)

 

[donners22]

Yeah, one should never place too much value on those announcements.

I'm still waiting for Ridley Scott's Crisis in the Hot Zone and the TV series based on Terry Pratchett's City Watch series.

 

[F. King Daniel]

Weren't Skydance the money people on Into Darkness and one of the main investors of Beyond as well? They were part of the official press release:
http://www.treknews.net/2016/07/18/star-trek-4-officially-announced-by-paramount/

 

[donners22]

(The biggest indicator of this is the UK, where ST: ID earned nearly $40 million and STB earned close to $19 million, or 50% of ST: ID's take.)

How big is the difference in pounds? I'd assume the pound is worth less now than it was then.

 

[Kai "the spy"]

In an article from 2012, from ChinaFilmBiz, the author writes,

(https://chinafilmbiz.com/2012/11/09/how-chinas-movie-distribution-system-works-part-2/)

I was under the impression that movies co-produced by Chinese companies get to keep a higher percentage, which is why several big budget movies seek Chinese investors now. STB was co-financed by Alibaba Pictures and Huahua Media, two Chinese companies. This should lead to a higher percentage of the receipts going to the studios, no?! Even if they go only to Alibaba and Huahua, that should be an incentive for those two to invest in another sequel.

 

[Jbarney]

All in all Beyond has to be considered a very big disappointment by Paramount. I don't think they were looking for what happened with the 50th anniversary of James Bond, but you have to think they were looking for a slight uptick from the first two films. On the flip side, they can look at the box office this year and see the Trek, despite being off significantly from the other films in the franchise is their best performer of the year. Trek should stumble along and get over $150 million in the US. Its $230 cum right now is not good, but when all is said and done, it should....should manage $300 million globally. I think that is the symbolic number at this point. If it doesn't then ouch....Paramount's film department will probably have a lot of changes.....

On the flip side, we can only go with what we have been told so far, and ST4 will happen. I don't think Paramount needs to spend so much on these films. The market has changed drastically in the last twelve months and MANY big budget blockbusters had lackluster returns. Yes, a lot does depend on those last markets the September release date.

I think someone from Paramount needs to look at the franchise, the numbers, and understand that it is possible for Trek to do well on a much smaller budget. And if the producers and those spending the money want, they can demand Trek stay in the action business....look at what happened with Fury Road. Warner Brothers spent $150 million on that one and it had $378 global cum....and that was one long action sequence. Trek can do well....it doesn't have to be a $180 million dollar production.

Just my two cents.

 

[Khan 2.0]

Maybe they could even get it down to a 120-130m budget (like Prometheus) for a Yesterdays Enterprise style ST4?

 

[timtonruben359]

All in all Beyond has to be considered a very big disappointment by Paramount. I don't think they were looking for what happened with the 50th anniversary of James Bond, but you have to think they were looking for a slight uptick from the first two films. On the flip side, they can look at the box office this year and see the Trek, despite being off significantly from the other films in the franchise is their best performer of the year. Trek should stumble along and get over $150 million in the US. Its $230 cum right now is not good, but when all is said and done, it should....should manage $300 million globally. I think that is the symbolic number at this point. If it doesn't then ouch....Paramount's film department will probably have a lot of changes.....

On the flip side, we can only go with what we have been told so far, and ST4 will happen. I don't think Paramount needs to spend so much on these films. The market has changed drastically in the last twelve months and MANY big budget blockbusters had lackluster returns. Yes, a lot does depend on those last markets the September release date.

I think someone from Paramount needs to look at the franchise, the numbers, and understand that it is possible for Trek to do well on a much smaller budget. And if the producers and those spending the money want, they can demand Trek stay in the action business....look at what happened with Fury Road. Warner Brothers spent $150 million on that one and it had $378 global cum....and that was one long action sequence. Trek can do well....it doesn't have to be a $180 million dollar production.

Just my two cents.

There is no doubt Beyond is a disappointment but not a BIG disappointment. Its under performed but it remains Paramount's most successful movie so far this year and likely will remain so. Look at Ben Hur, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles, Zoolander 2....those are BIG disappointment/bombs. Basically everything Paramount has released this year besides Beyond has failed.

We already know Paramount is shuffling around its domestic marketing department so clearly there's a feeling the the marketing department at Paramount is partially to blame.

From the limited information we got in the press release about ST4 it sounds like the story has already been developed and JJ Abrams seemed to suggest a script might already have been written. There has been talk that Paramount was looking for a Christmas 2018 release but that's just rumor.

The clear falling point for Beyond is its budget it was just too high to make it profitable. We know that the $185 million budget does include some absorption costs from the original Orci script which was well into pre-production when Paramount scrapped it. There's an estimate around that the could have cost upwards of $30 million when you include all the salaries involved.

I'm guessing Paramount will give a budget based on the final box office for Beyond which means ST4 will would be filmed on a budget of around $150 million.

 

[Kelthaz]

From the limited information we got in the press release about ST4 it sounds like the story has already been developed and JJ Abrams seemed to suggest a script might already have been written. There has been talk that Paramount was looking for a Christmas 2018 release but that's just rumor.

Well Star Wars seems to have abandoned the Christmas slot for that year, so Star Trek could try to serve as the Star Wars replacement with a family-focused film like The Voyage Home. A Tribble movie, maybe? Of course, if the Han Solo film gets delayed from May 2016 to December they're screwed. If they have to compete against Star Wars then Nemesis will look like a roaring success in comparison.

 

[BJ Wagner]

Do you think there's any correlation between how Into Darkness has been recently received and how poorly Beyond has thus far done? Even though Into Darkness holds slightly higher scores on Rotton Tomatos and Metacritic, it's commonly referred to by fans as inferior to Beyond.

I have a lot of issues with Into Darkness and almost didn't bother with Beyond in theatres because of it--even though I would have still bought the Blu-ray when it's released. I'm a TOS Trekkie, after all. However due to the positive response from fans on sites such as this, I decided to give Beyond a try and liked it so much that it's restored my hope in this film franchise. I even saw it twice.

 

[suarezguy]

I don't really see why the studio let the movie have such a large/larger budget what with Star Wars especially and other franchises generally increasing the competition, is a larger budget just assumed or granted unless there's a strong effort to prevent one?

 

[timtonruben359]

Do you think there's any correlation between how Into Darkness has been recently received and how poorly Beyond has thus far done? Even though Into Darkness holds slightly higher scores on Rotton Tomatos and Metacritic, it's commonly referred to by fans as inferior to Beyond.

I have a lot of issues with Into Darkness and almost didn't bother with Beyond in theatres because of it--even though I would have still bought the Blu-ray when it's released. I'm a TOS Trekkie, after all. However due to the positive response from fans on sites such as this, I decided to give Beyond a try and liked it so much that it's restored my hope in this film franchise. I even saw it twice.

I actually don't think Into Darkness played as much a role in Beyond's box office as some people are arguing. I think within the fandom Into Darkness is a controversial movie to many but in terms of the more general audience I think Into Darkness was well received.

Beyond's real issue I think was the lack of buzz surrounding it prior to landing in theaters (the sign of a piss poor marketing campaign) - I think the Hollywood Reporter said Beyond landed in theaters with an awkward thud - and also timing in that it was released in a summer when audiences seem to be largely abandoning sequel and reboot movies. Star Wars and the Marvel movies seem to be the exception to that but animated movies (except Ice Age) are the real winners of the summer box office. This summer's box office pattern seems to be good opening weekend and then HUGE drops the following weeks.