Survivor 37: David vs Goliath

[Spot's Meow]

I enjoyed the Blood vs. Water seasons. I definitely don't consider Ghost Island on par with this season though. Ghost Island had a couple of interesting characters but for the most part I felt bored and frustrated by the lack of opposition to Dom and Wendell. As for the current season, I think it's one of the best we've had in years.

I definitely hope the "strike force" take control. They are really interesting and strategically adept players.

 

[JirinPanthosa]

That finish was amazing.

I love when Mike said "The people at home are either rooting for Christian or wondering why the hell we don't vote him out!" Yup.

Spoiler

And now, Davids go in down 5-6 with a vote steal AND an idol nullifier, so they can actually use the vote steal however they want and know for sure the idol won't be played on the person they vote for.

 

[Spot's Meow]

That tribal council was so good. The Davids not only didn't lose one of their key members, Christian, but they got out a Goliath, and the biggest Goliath at that. AND they got Dan to throw away one of his idols! Angelina wouldn't have gone home anyway, so it was a waste of an idol.

I loved when the Goliaths saw the votes for Christian and Angelina and were asking Jeff "what happens now??" They just assumed that the Davids didn't have another plan besides voting for Angelina like they were told.

They also assumed that the Davids didn't have an idol. There was no effort by the Goliaths to split votes or come up with a back-up plan in case the Davids had an idol and played it on the right person. We heard a couple of throwaway lines where they said "the Davids don't have an idol," "yeah, no way they do" and then it wasn't given another thought. Such hubris! It's funny how they are really living up to their reputations as Goliaths. This season's theme, as ridiculous as it sounded at first, has actually played out quite fittingly. Part of that is editing, of course, but it really does seem like they selected the right people who have personalities perfectly displaying the theme.

I am sad to see strike force fall apart so soon. Mike is clearly not to be trusted, by either side at this point. He has betrayed Goliaths and Davids, much like Alec. But at least Alec told Nick about the plan to get rid of Christian, and voiced his dislike for having to go along with it. Mike was the actual ringleader of the operation.

I hope that the Davids can go far. They have the advantages to do so. They likely don't know about Dan's second idol, but hopefully they will assume that someone on that side has an idol. The idol nullifier doesn't have to be played on the person who possesses the idol, but rather who it is being played on. So, if they can play this right, they can control the next vote regardless of who wins individual immunity.

 

[JirinPanthosa]

That was awesome, went down exactly as we expected.

 

[Garak]

Those last two tribals were two of the best I’ve seen, wow

 

[Spot's Meow]

I agree, this season is really great so far! Highly entertaining tribal councils.

 

[wissaboo]

I feel like they have finally perfected the use of idols and advantages. Well Christian has anyway.

 

[DigificWriter]

Last week's episode of David vs Goliath was great, what with the Idol Nullifier being successfully played and Nick using his Steal a Vote, and with two episodes coming this Wednesday, I'm excited to see what happens next.

Switching gears, I'm still working my way through Kaoh Rong and have reached the episode where Tai betrays his alliance and doesn't form the Super Idol, and if I'm being honest, I really don't see how or why that decision is considered to be a big "Survivor mistake".

 

[JirinPanthosa]

It's weird the last two seasons have gone so much along original tribal lines. It hasn't been that way since very early in the show's history, with only a few exceptions. Maybe the way to prevent it is to start with three tribes. Maybe the reason it has swung back that way is because all the players have been watching all the other seasons that went differently.

I think that's a lot of the reason advantages have been so effective this year. Other than idols, most advantages are only useful when you 1) Are only down by one vote, and 2) Know exactly how everyone is voting.

When voting is along tribal lines, these conditions are a lot more likely. Whereas when you have your 'trust clusters' and different groups getting together every week, there's almost always a strong majority, and nobody on the losing side knows how everyone is voting.

The idol nullifier is hard to misplay. It doesn't matter if you don't use it on the person who used the idol, as long as the idol gets played, and you use it on the person you all voted for. Same effect whether it hits or misses.

 

[DigificWriter]

The idol nullifier is hard to misplay. It doesn't matter if you don't use it on the person who used the idol, as long as the idol gets played, and you use it on the person you all voted for.

That's not how it works. The Idol Nullifier only works if the person in possession of it guesses two things correctly:
1)That a person has an Idol
2) That said person will play their Idol

Otherwise, it has no power as a tool in the game.

 

[JirinPanthosa]

That's not how it works. The Idol Nullifier only works if the person in possession of it guesses two things correctly:
1)That a person has an Idol
2) That said person will play their Idol

Otherwise, it has no power as a tool in the game.

Yeah, but the point is it's the same effect whether or not it does anything.

Vote for Suzy, Idol Nullifier on Suzy, Idol played on Suzy: Suzy is eliminated, idol is gone.
Vote for Suzy, Idol Nullifier on Suzy, Idol played on Lou: Suzy is eliminated, idol is gone.

Same diff.

 

[DigificWriter]

^ Except in Scenario B, the Idol Nullifier isn't played correctly.

 

[JirinPanthosa]

^ Except in Scenario B, the Idol Nullifier isn't played correctly.

I disagree. It's played exactly correctly, it was played on the person who received the votes. Using the nullifier on the person who played the idol means nothing if that person isn't the one with the majority of votes. It's the one who played the idol who guessed wrong.

Survivor is a consequentialist game. Equal consequence is equal correctness.

 

[DigificWriter]

The rules of using the Idol Nullifier correctly were spelled out in the episode in which Carl found it, and are as I said. They were further clarified by Jeff Probst in a "pre-season" interview he did with The Hollywood Reporter:

"You have to play it when you vote," Probst says about how the nullifier is used. "The situation would be, someone is at camp with an idol nullifier. They think you have an idol, or they know you have an idol, and they think you're going to play it tonight. They're trying to get you to play it. They have the nullifier. When they go up to vote, they have a decision to make. If they decide to play it, in private, where no one can see them, they'll say: 'I'm playing this idol nullifier against Josh playing his idol.' They write your name down, and drop it in the urn. It comes time to read the votes, and you stand up and play your idol. You dance around, super proud, and you bring it over to me. I'll say: 'This is a hidden immunity idol …' And then I'll reach into the urn: 'And this is an idol nullifier. Any votes cast against Josh will count.'"

Probst adds that whoever plays the idol nullifier has to play it against whoever will wind up with immunity, in order to accomplish the move. For example, it's not enough to play the nullifier against whoever wields a hidden immunity idol; it must be played against whoever winds up with that immunity, whether it's the original person in possession of the idol, or someone else on the tribe who winds up with that protection. "It's a guessing game," says Probst.

"The first time we play it, it will be a big twist," he continues, "and it'll be anonymous. Nobody will know who played it, except for the player who had it and whoever they told. If you don't stand up and you don't play your idol, then I never show the idol nullifier, and the person who played it blew it."

 

[JirinPanthosa]

You're missing the point. The job of the idol nullifier, practically speaking in terms of consequence, is to protect your votes. It doesn't matter who the actual idol ended up getting played on. It only matters that it removed the risk of the idol. Whether the idol was played on the person you voted for or not, it *could not* have discounted the votes that were cast, so it allows everyone to vote with confidence and be absolutely sure it will work.

The result of playing the idol nullifier on the person you voted for is exactly the same, regardless of whether the idol was played on that person or another person.

Every idol that does not change the elimination is a 'nullified' idol.

I'm halfway through hour two of the episode right now. I'm confused why Christian was not picked for the reward challenge. People know the sit out seat sometimes has an advantage, why would they risk giving that to a guy like Christian?

 

[JirinPanthosa]

This season seems so new but we're already down to final 8.

So time for a 'Likelihood to win' ranking.

1. Christian

The favorite since the beginning. The camera loves him but he seems to have all the positive qualities of all the winners. You could say, that's why nobody will let him into the final 3. But he seems to have all the majorities within majorities and seems like a vote lock if he makes it.

2. Nick

Not the best strategic player but he has never had a bad position in the social game and has never been a target. He's smart and likable and is friends with everyone. And has an idol. He will be mad at Christian but can easily get back in with him.

3. Mike

Again a guy who can make friends and has never been a target. Like Alison, he ruined his chance to create a dominant alliance with Christian and Gabby. But he's smart, made a good decision today, and seems like he could tell a good final 3 story.

4. Angelina

Yeah, she's been on the bottom and narrowly escaped elimination for a long time. She has a bad social game. But she's smart and stands out and seems more likely to me than the other remaining players to carve a path to the end with the ability to tell a story.

5. Alison

From 4-7 are extremely hard to choose between. Nobody is in a particularly bad position, everybody is reasonably smart and has plenty of chances to carve a path to the end and differentiate themselves. Alison just might have a slightly better final three argument than the others because she was targeted more.

6. Jamie

Smart, likable, only negative is his tendency to be on the wrong side of votes.

7. Cara

Beige player. Won't get credit for anything she did.

8. Gabby

Stop crying. Seriously. You have a fantastic third place game, but nobody will ever vote for you.

 

[DigificWriter]

Gabby, for being smart, you are kind of dumb, because you unnecessarily torpedoed yourself onto the Jury.

* sigh *

At this point, I really need Christian to win because he's the only one left who deserves to.

 

[JirinPanthosa]

My new ranking in terms of victory chances:
1. Nick
2. Mike
3. Davie
4. Christian
5. Angelina
6. Alison
7. Cara

Setting Nick to #1 as he's now in control of the majority alliance with an idol and credit. Setting Christian down to #4 because he's lost all his shields. I'd be happy with any of the top four winning at this point. A lot of good games have been played, and Christian dropped the ball on the dominant game he was playing by alienating Nick.

 

[JirinPanthosa]

I mentally compared Angelina to Amy Santiago from Brooklyn 99 and now I can’t stop seeing it.

 

[Timewalker]

Now that NaNoWriMo is over, I can start paying more attention to this.

I hope Christian wins. If it's anyone else, I will be disappointed.