STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

[Out Of My Vulcan Mind]

I think it's more likely they'd just not increase the budget, if it does well overseas and gets 200m+ along with 200m+ domestic it should be okay.

If it does, say, $400 million worldwide that would be a bit soft for a $180-190 million budget. They would likely reduce the budget back to around $150 million. To get another sequel at this budget level it probably needs to do in the high 400s or over 500 worldwide.

 

[sttngfan1701d]

I think it's more likely they'd just not increase the budget, if it does well overseas and gets 200m+ along with 200m+ domestic it should be okay.

If it does, say, $400 million worldwide that would be a bit soft for a $180-190 million budget. They would likely reduce the budget back to around $150 million. To get another sequel at this budget level it probably needs to do in the high 400s or over 500 worldwide.

I have to admit that I'm still surprised by today's box office realities. It wasn't too long ago that a $300m box office total was considered great. Now every big film has a huge budget and Avatar and the Avengers have shifted the paradigm and studios are only satisfied with CRAZY money.

By the way, thanks for your avatar. It's been awhile since I've seen Season 1 Sarah. Good memories.

 

[Phily B]

I'll always buy whatever Deadline.com is selling:

‘Star Trek Into Darkness’ On Track For $27M Friday And $88M Weekend; International Cume Already $47M

FRIDAY 1 PM, 3RD UPDATE: My sources say early matinees are very strong for Star Trek Into Darkness from Paramount Pictures, Skydance Productions, and director J.J. Abrams‘ Bad Robot. It continued its domestic run today in 3,762 theaters with a refined number of $13.4 million from Wednesday’s 336 IMAX late shows and Thursday’s midnights and then yesterday’s wide release. Today’s grosses are almost double Thursday’s and an early read of noon averages is ranging from $25M to $27M Friday and $80M to $88M for the 3-day weekend - with a prediction of $100M for the first four days. Abrams’ first 2009 installment of the long-running film franchise opened to $30.1M Friday (without a Thursday start) and $79M for the first weekend. Fandango reports the new pic’s ticket sales are outpacing the first movie at the same point in the cycle and 55% of surveyed filmgoers plan to see it more than once. Over 80% of MovieTickets sales are for Star Trek Into Darkness and that’s led to some 430 sold out screenings this weekend. Overseas, the iconic 3D space tentpole’s cume is now $47M through Thursday. More later…

Maybe McCoy gave the box office a shot of Khan's blood...

250-300 DOM and hopefully 200+ OS. 500m total finish looks realistic?

I don't think Paramount will wait four years for the next one though, I think that's something which has affected it.

 

[Out Of My Vulcan Mind]

With a $25-27 million Friday - taking into account the weekend multipliers past May sequels have had after Thursday openings - $85 million for the 4-day weekend is now probably the worst case scenario and $100 million for the 4-day weekend the best case scenario.

By the way, thanks for your avatar. It's been awhile since I've seen Season 1 Sarah. Good memories.

Ah, Sarah...

 

[Phily B]

Well for what its worth, GI Joe 1 still got a sequel and a higher budget for some reason, even if it didn't do well domestically or in the foreign BO.

 

[MacLeod]

If there is a sequel it'll be out in 3 years time, 3.5 tops. After all 2016 is the 50th Anniversary year.

 

[Out Of My Vulcan Mind]

Well for what its worth, GI Joe 1 still got a sequel and a higher budget for some reason, even if it didn't do well domestically or in the foreign BO.

G.I. Joe 2 had a reduced production budget. The first one had a $175 million budget, while the second one had a $130 million budget - they got a cheaper director and did some cast reengineering, too.

 

[Flake]

Her maths arent right. (Nikki at deadline.com)

The Boxoffice followers on hsx & boxoffice.com are saying that an 88m weekend from a 27m Friday is highly unlikely and also the fact she says 'almost double Thursday' yet says 25-27m when Thursday alone was only 10.5m, if its almost double 10.5m then thats perhaps 19-21m not 13.5x2 because that would include Wednesday.

Not holding my breath here. (But you all knew that anyway)

Just take these figures with a pinch of salt for now imo.

 

[Phily B]

Well for what its worth, GI Joe 1 still got a sequel and a higher budget for some reason, even if it didn't do well domestically or in the foreign BO.

G.I. Joe 2 had a reduced production budget. The first one had a $175 million budget, while the second one had a $130 million budget - they got a cheaper director and did some cast reengineering, too.

Hmm, you're right. I can't believe they gave GI Joe 1 a 175m budget

 

[Phily B]

Her maths arent right. (Nikki at deadline.com)

The Boxoffice followers on hsx & boxoffice.com are saying that an 88m weekend from a 27m Friday is highly unlikely and also the fact she says 'almost double Thursday' yet says 25-27m when Thursday alone was only 10.5m, if its almost double 10.5m then thats perhaps 19-21m not 13.5x2 because that would include Wednesday.

Not holding my breath here. (But you all knew that anyway)

Just take these figures with a pinch of salt for now imo.

I think the BTC numbers are going to turn out to be correct which isn't particularly an improvement on the last one.

 

[Out Of My Vulcan Mind]

She probably meant double Thursday including the Wednesday night numbers. Those numbers are often considered part of the Thursday take. When a sequel releases some of the early demand by opening on a Thursday it can lead to a weekend multiplier of 2.9 to 3.3X the Friday take, so that's where she's getting the possiblity of an $88 million 3-day weekend from.

 

[Flake]

She probably meant double Thursday including the Wednesday night numbers. Those numbers are often considered part of the Thursday take. When a sequel releases some of the early demand by opening on a Thursday it can lead to a weekend multiplier of 2.9 to 3.3X the Friday take, so that's where she's getting the possiblity of an $88 million 3-day weekend from.

Trouble is she is well known for making mistakes like this. We dont know how she got her numbers. Perhaps it was some exec saying 'almost double Thursday' which taken literally means about 19m which is an awful number but she may have accidentally used the 13.5m to make her basic calculation. I have a bad feeling about all this.....

 

[Admiral Buzzkill]

I have a bad feeling about all this.....

You go right ahead...

 

[Flake]

Seriously I'm sorry for being the thread pessimist here, someone slip me a valium or even better some Khan blood! That stuff would rule.

 

[Phily B]

I too have a bad feeling and think it'll struggle to reach ST09s gross, but will beat it comfortably WW.

I do think it'll lead to Paramount looking at getting Trek into production far quicker this time.

 

[Flake]

I think it's more likely they'd just not increase the budget, if it does well overseas and gets 200m+ along with 200m+ domestic it should be okay. I don't think Abrams is vital, I think Brad Bird would be a good choice as he did well with MI.

I would like Brad Bird as well. Apparently he was first choice on Star Wars but he passed and now JJ is doing it. Bird is committed to directing a movie that is released in Summer 2015 so there would be no chance of doing Star Wars without dropping the movie he is doing and he didn't want to.

It would be nice for a director to come in and say he actually was/is a big Trek fan because he would have one up on JJ straight away. Can you imagine the internet meltdown if JJ said he didn't like Star Wars?

 

[Out Of My Vulcan Mind]

Brad Bird directing a Trek movie would be great. Unfortunately I think J.J.'s replacement is more likely to be a step down.

 

[SalvorHardin]

I nominate Michael Bay and Megan Fox as Number One.

 

[Kpnuts]

I think it's more likely they'd just not increase the budget, if it does well overseas and gets 200m+ along with 200m+ domestic it should be okay. I don't think Abrams is vital, I think Brad Bird would be a good choice as he did well with MI.

I would like Brad Bird as well. Apparently he was first choice on Star Wars but he passed and now JJ is doing it. Bird is committed to directing a movie that is released in Summer 2015 so there would be no chance of doing Star Wars without dropping the movie he is doing and he didn't want to.

It would be nice for a director to come in and say he actually was/is a big Trek fan because he would have one up on JJ straight away. Can you imagine the internet meltdown if JJ said he didn't like Star Wars?

If Bird is down to direct a film released in 2015, how does that make him any more possible than JJ? Star Wars is also out 2015.

 

[Ovation]

Matthew Vaughn would do a good job, I think. I quite liked X-Men First Class.