Keep chuggin' along, BEYOND...! 
Spoilers STAR TREK BEYOND
- Thread starter Khan 2.0
- Start date
It's not making it to the $350 million mark. It is done in China at around the $63-64 million. It is in its 3rd week or longer in every major market. Only Japan remains and if the Japanese really thought this movie would be a hit, it would have opened sooner. 50-70% of STID seems ballpark (5-7 million). I expect high 4s to low 6s. I don't see Japan caring much more than Europe or North America has in terms of relative box office performance.
I think the final tally will have it just crawling past $340 million when all the dust settles.
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Yes, they'll see that it made almost $100 million less domestically than ST09 and $45 million less overall. And that without the major market expansion that has occurred in China that the overseas box office is almost the same as it was for the reboot.
Not a flop but a major disappointment in terms of box office. Nobody is going to look at the numbers and think "Wow, look how well STB performed in area XXXX!!!"
I wouldn't be surprised if the home video numbers take an equally precipitous fall. Maybe 20-30% of what Star Trek 2009 made from that market.
I remember there were some people on this board who thought that China would be Beyond's saviour.
They predicted Beyond would make a 100 million, perhaps even 150 million. And that was even after Beyond seriously under performing in EVERY market it was released in.
If you consider how big the box office in China has grown since Into Darkness, Beyond's results in that country are very disappointing, again.
They predicted Beyond would make a 100 million, perhaps even 150 million. And that was even after Beyond seriously under performing in EVERY market it was released in.
If you consider how big the box office in China has grown since Into Darkness, Beyond's results in that country are very disappointing, again.
Yup. Some posts on this (and other boards) had predictions of $380 million total.
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Let me correct you on several points since almost every comment is erroneous.
1) No one said anything about China being a savior. Not one.
2) No one predicted it would make $100 million. There was supposition for a time it would make that much or more, and then a few days before it's release there, CFI(China Film Insider) projected $105 million. Since that was the most recent, credible and largest organization to make a projection, I used that number to make an estimation.
3) Beyond actually did improve in a few markets, it did in fact surpass the previous installment in China. It also made significantly more than ST09 internationally.
4) As I've pointed out already, while the overall box office has exploded in China it's currently in a down period (the first in 9 years) and Beyond has also been released at a quieter point in the release calendar. The last 3 weekends were the slowest of the year in China.
Feel free to spout more inaccuracies.
RAMA
1) No one said anything about China being a savior. Not one.
2) No one predicted it would make $100 million. There was supposition for a time it would make that much or more, and then a few days before it's release there, CFI(China Film Insider) projected $105 million. Since that was the most recent, credible and largest organization to make a projection, I used that number to make an estimation.
3) Beyond actually did improve in a few markets, it did in fact surpass the previous installment in China. It also made significantly more than ST09 internationally.
4) As I've pointed out already, while the overall box office has exploded in China it's currently in a down period (the first in 9 years) and Beyond has also been released at a quieter point in the release calendar. The last 3 weekends were the slowest of the year in China.
Feel free to spout more inaccuracies.
RAMA
Hands up 
I expected a minimum of $400 million for this movie before it came out. I'm confident that this was at the low end of Paramounts expectations based on the performance of ST09 and STID.
I'm very sorry that the film failed to reach that target. I also thought that China might be its saviour. Crucify me now for my erroneous thought patterns
I'm STILL hoping for $350 million too, but am aware of course that this is optimistic.
I expected a minimum of $400 million for this movie before it came out. I'm confident that this was at the low end of Paramounts expectations based on the performance of ST09 and STID.
I'm very sorry that the film failed to reach that target. I also thought that China might be its saviour. Crucify me now for my erroneous thought patterns
I'm STILL hoping for $350 million too, but am aware of course that this is optimistic.
I will admit to having higher expectations from China. It will end up a bit below even my conservative estimate but I thought it could really blow up in the Middle Kingdom. In fact the final worldwide tally will hit the bottom of my predictions ($340 million) but that was based on how it was being received in Europe and in the early release territories. I really thought it could (and might) do much better in the later release dates.
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Well the media and internet was touting the word "savior" firstly and it may have been repeated verbatim including here, but it didn't need a savior.
If anything, I had been saying for 3-4 weeks when there was a box office panic what Beyond needed to make ($300 million minimum) in order to have a base figure to build it's secondary revenue, where most movies make their profit..including Beyond of course. I also suggested based on the best projection a potential gross of $370-380 million, and failing that, that China might bring Beyond into the $340-350 million range, which is now where it seems likely to go.
The funny thing is I had quite a few people telling me that Beyond would never come close to $300 million (around the time publicity for Beyond was examining it's $166 million and $244 million box office gross and calling it a failure prematurely). So of course they were wrong.
Beyond seems like it will surpass Bourne and Ice Age, the 2 biggest American movies of the late summer by the end of the next weekend and finish around $70 million (currently at $62.5)
I predicted $550 million based on various reasons that I stated, though I also stated what might make it lower than that, this included the box office downturn in China, et al. So we are all "disappointed". It deserved to do better by the usual measures(reviews, ratings by viewers).
What it wound up doing was being "respectable", which many people gave up on and on those terms and the fact that it will roughly "break even" in box office makes it a success for Paramount, as it looks to be the ONLY movie they released this year that will eventually make a sizable profit.
It doesn't really matter if it hits $350 million, it'll be close enough. We'll all round up in the next few years, because it'll at least make in the $340-345 range, $350 isn't a pipe dream though, very much in the realm of possibility.
RAMA
If anything, I had been saying for 3-4 weeks when there was a box office panic what Beyond needed to make ($300 million minimum) in order to have a base figure to build it's secondary revenue, where most movies make their profit..including Beyond of course. I also suggested based on the best projection a potential gross of $370-380 million, and failing that, that China might bring Beyond into the $340-350 million range, which is now where it seems likely to go.
The funny thing is I had quite a few people telling me that Beyond would never come close to $300 million (around the time publicity for Beyond was examining it's $166 million and $244 million box office gross and calling it a failure prematurely). So of course they were wrong.
Beyond seems like it will surpass Bourne and Ice Age, the 2 biggest American movies of the late summer by the end of the next weekend and finish around $70 million (currently at $62.5)
I predicted $550 million based on various reasons that I stated, though I also stated what might make it lower than that, this included the box office downturn in China, et al. So we are all "disappointed". It deserved to do better by the usual measures(reviews, ratings by viewers).
What it wound up doing was being "respectable", which many people gave up on and on those terms and the fact that it will roughly "break even" in box office makes it a success for Paramount, as it looks to be the ONLY movie they released this year that will eventually make a sizable profit.
It doesn't really matter if it hits $350 million, it'll be close enough. We'll all round up in the next few years, because it'll at least make in the $340-345 range, $350 isn't a pipe dream though, very much in the realm of possibility.
RAMA
Hands up
I expected a minimum of $400 million for this movie before it came out. I'm confident that this was at the low end of Paramounts expectations based on the performance of ST09 and STID.
I'm very sorry that the film failed to reach that target. I also thought that China might be its saviour. Crucify me now for my erroneous thought patterns
I'm STILL hoping for $350 million too, but am aware of course that this is optimistic.
Back in mid July I didn't expect for Beyond to perform so badly. Especially since after viewing it I thought it was by far the best film of the "Kelvin trilogy". Of course it became obvious to everyone after the 60% second weekend drop that we would have a significant b.o. decline when compared to the first two films. I've already listed the reasons that in my opinion contributed to Beyond's disappointing box office run so I won't open those floodgates again here.
Let me correct you on several points since almost every comment is erroneous.
1) No one said anything about China being a savior. Not one.
2) No one predicted it would make $100 million. There was supposition for a time it would make that much or more, and then a few days before it's release there, CFI(China Film Insider) projected $105 million. Since that was the most recent, credible and largest organization to make a projection, I used that number to make an estimation.
3) Beyond actually did improve in a few markets, it did in fact surpass the previous installment in China. It also made significantly more than ST09 internationally.
4) As I've pointed out already, while the overall box office has exploded in China it's currently in a down period (the first in 9 years) and Beyond has also been released at a quieter point in the release calendar. The last 3 weekends were the slowest of the year in China.
Feel free to spout more inaccuracies.
RAMA
1) After showing heavy declines in just about every territory outside of South Korea. China was the last possible savior for box office as it is the second biggest market in the world. Anyone who wanted STB to reverse it's performance internationally knew that China was the last, best hope for doing that.
2) In 2013, China's yearly box office was $3.6 Billion. In 2015 it was 6.8 billion. Anyone doing a simplistic extrapolation on STID's $57 million gross might come to that conclusion. In addition, 9 Hollywood releases have already made $95 million or more in China. A $100 million prediction is a bit high but could be supported. The fact that it ended up doing so poorly relative the market expansion would have been harder to justify. Going from the 17th highest grossing movie in China in 2013 to what will likely end up near or outside the top 40 by the end of the year . . . . well that's just perplexing.
3) It dropped in almost every market from STID and in several major markets (UK, Australia, France, etc) it dropped from Star Trek 2009. If China is removed from the comparison the international box office would be almost even: $116 million for ST09 versus $120 million (projected) for STB. In fact, I think that China might be the only territory where the box office improved from STID. South Korea had a good start but now it has slowed down to the point where I don't know if it will pass STID overall.
4) Let me first state that China's box office is still on track to finish 10-20% over 2015's total box office. There were no box office monsters this summer like there was last year (Monster Hunt) but Hollywood movies have taken a larger portion of the overall market. This means that Hollywood movies are, in fact, making more than ever while the Chinese film industry is in a bit of a slump (at least until the next breakout film). The early September release date for China is similar to MI: Rogue Nation in 2015 ($137 million) and Battle of the Planet of the Apes ($107 million). To your point though, despite the favorable date historically, this September has not done anywhere what it should have done for this time of year. I was thinking "A Chinese Odyssey 3" to do mid 40s to low 50s based on it's opening day numbers on Wed and it didn't even reach $38 million. The strong period from January to May though still puts the overall yearly Chinese box office ahead of 2015 even with the slight dip in summer and (so far) more significant drop off in the first few weeks of fall.
Additionally, don't be surprised if they adjust the overall foreign box office in the future. The numbers from Venezuela are insane! And when I say insane I mean "unbelievable". I get that they have some hyperinflation going on but based on the numbers of tickets sold and the box office stated by Paramount, Venezuelans would have to be paying over $110 per ticket to see STB. I don't think that is going to happen in a country in the middle of an economic collapse and daily political turmoil. I suspect those numbers are wrong.
I remember those posts, and in my thread I pointed out those were knee-jerk reactions and how it would finish well above $300 million.
STB is currently at 62.3m in China. I have seen people who watch the market more closely than I say that it will finish around 64-65 million (below Ice Age 5 and Jason Bourne). $70 million would be very difficult (if not impossible) given its screen losses and the lower than normal theater attendance.
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Lots of blockbusters drop off 55-70% it's not uncommon at all. Suicide Squad did. BvS did. Deadpool dropped 57.4% in it's second weekend. Captain America: 59.5%
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That's where "legs" come in. Suicide Squad for instance has passed many milestones as one of the most "leggier" films.
Also, I wouldn't compare Beyond with the aforementioned films, it doesn't look good…
Captain America Civil War: $1,152 million
Batman v Superman: $873 million
Deadpool: $782 million
Suicide Squad: $718 million
…
Star Trek Beyond: $333 million
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60% drops are common for big blockbusters (usually above the $85 million Opening Weekend). This is partially due to the normal front-loading of certain genres (like the superhero genre) and the fact that sometimes huge preview numbers are included in weekend totals giving it almost a 4 day total to be compared to the second weekend's 3 day total.
That being said, if you look at movies in the $50-60 million range for the past few years. What really hurt STB wasn't just the second week drop but rather having a high second AND third week drop together. The other movie having the same time of drops was the latest XMen release which is also generally regarded as having a disappointing box office result:
STB = 58% drop / 59% drop
The Revenant = 20% drop (outlier) / 49% drop
XMen:A = 65% drop / 56% drop
Jason Bourne = 62% drop / 38% drop
Straight Outta Compton = 56% drop / 50% drop
San Andreas = 52% drop / 58% drop
Ant Man = 56% drop / 48% drop
Hobbit BOTFA = 25% drop (Holiday) / 46% drop
TMNT = 56% drop / 41% drop
22 Jump St = 51% drop / 42% drop
Why do you consider that good? Revenue percentages are far higher for domestic box office as well as ancillary revenue (Television distribution, home video, digital media, etc).
For example, China has half the box office sharing that North America does and zero secondary revenue (no home video, no television rights, etc). China was STID's second largest attendance market but the UK was the second largest revenue market. Unfortunately the UK dropped 40-50% from STID in box office.
Where you make your money is also as important as how much you make overall.
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