Spoilers STAR TREK BEYOND

[photon70]

Movie tickets sales in America have steadily been declining over the past 14 years.

This is despite the fact that the American population has increased by over 30M in that same time period.

2016 is on pace for about 1.2B in ticket sales. That's 3.75 tickets per person.
In 2003 1.5B tickets were sold. That's 5.2 tickets sold per person.

http://www.the-numbers.com/market/

Meanwhile, if you go back to 1995, only 1.2B tickets were sold.

2003 was the highest in terms of number of tickets sold in the last 21 years in North America.

Numbers of tickets sold go up and down every year but remain fairly consistent within a range.

Correct that per average, people are going to the movies less each year as the population rises.

 

[johnjm22]

http://www.the-numbers.com/market/

Meanwhile, if you go back to 1995, only 1.2B tickets were sold.

2003 was the highest in terms of number of tickets sold in the last 21 years in North America.

Numbers of tickets sold go up and down every year but remain fairly consistent within a range.

Correct that per average, people are going to the movies less each year as the population rises.

Again, ticket sales have been steadily declining for the past 14 years. That's long enough to establish a trend.

The whole point of what I'm saying is that this trend of people going to the movies less often, may be a contributing reason why STB and other movies have unimpressive sales.

Not only was the population 50M less in 1995, but I'm also guessing there was less movies to choose from, so it make sense that eventually we're going to see weaker revenue numbers (despite ticket prices being higher).

2016 Is on Track to Be Hollywood’s Worst Year for Per-Person Ticket Sales in a Century: http://www.vanityfair.com/hollywood/2016/06/hollywood-movie-ticket-sales

 

[Ar-Pharazon]

Who was secretly cloned from Picard!

And Picard is really...dun dun dun dun...Kirk's grandson

 

[Dales]

Remember the early opening weekend projections do not include the interest generated by Rihanna's Sledgehammer, ComicCOn premier and the final 3 weeks of marketing + TV spots.

If what we've seen so far is an indicator, the next 3 weeks will probably be close to non-stop ads, TV spots, billboards etc.

I'm willing to bet the opening weekend will end up well north of $60m.

Meanwhile, this weekend, Tarzan is heading for mid-$30m and BFG mid $20m which continues the slow box office.

But the fact remains good films (Dory, etc) do find their audience and the audience keep coming back weekend after weekend.

What the box office shows is audiences aren't going to just any movie, but the 'right' movie.

The TV spots are great. Many many people will never sit through a 2 minute trailer but a 16 second TV spot where Kirk says he's headed for the bar instead of med bay, that's the sort of quick fire advertising that works.

In February deadpool had a projection of 65m and opened to 135 million, if this film has amazing reviews and I hope it does I will say 75m-90m opening will be likely but all of us will need to go out and support the film. I will perhaps see it on opening weekend and maybe two more times.

 

[photon70]

In February deadpool had a projection of 65m and opened to 135 million, if this film has amazing reviews and I hope it does I will say 75m-90m opening will be likely but all if us will need to go out and support the film. I will perhaps see it on opening weekend and maybe two more times.

Hopefully the same will happen with STB. The critics review will be important. And WoM.

Do go on opening weekend.

Each dollar made during opening weekend will mean at least another $2 will be made after that.

ST09 had a multiplier of 3.4 and STiD 3.2.

 

[Tiberius Jim]

My local theater has an 8pm showing on 7/21. There's a seat there with my proverbial name on it. And then again to see it with my dad. And again in 3D. At least.

 

[SeamusShameless]

I really wanted to take my mom to the July 20th marathon, but my sister works late on Wednesdays and my mom and I watch her 5-year-old daughter. Normally it would be as simple as dropping my niece off at my grandmother's house, but my 5-year-old and 7-year-old daughters are with me for the summer and my 86-year-old grandmother can't handle all 3 girls for 8 hours. Therefore I'll be taking my daughters to a matinee showing on Friday when I should be sleeping as I work overnight Thursday through Sunday. I'll take instilling a love of Star Trek in my children over sleep any day!

 

[mattman8907]

I'm kinda irked by the run time. According to Fandango and Itunes, It says Beyond will be only 2 hours long. like exactly 2 hours long. I was kinda hoping they would've made it longer like 130 or 140 minutes.

 

[Tiberius Jim]

Could just be an estimate. The thing (surprisingly to me) isn't even rated yet.

 

[RAMA]

I don't think the "tracking" takes into account sneak peeks and early releases either. So we are talking about a number closer to $70 million.

Personally, I don't think an overall decline in ticket sales in North America is going to affect the box office numbers much.

RAMA

 

[Jax]

Current tracking has a $50-$60 million opening so not bad but not good either when compared to the last two. Thank god the budget is back to $150 million it seems and is it me or does the marketing look cheaper as well compared to the last two.

 

[RAMA]

Because it still doesn't seem new to me. Kirk's ability to command is being doubted (TMP, ID) this time by himself (wok). Enterprise is heavily damaged / destroyed (Sfs, Gen, 09, ID) Kirk is by himself with a few key members of his crew trying to save everyone as an action hero (09, ID) Kirk saves everyone, movie ends with Kirk accepting his destiny as Captain with a speech by someone about exploration and the launch of a (new) Enterprise (WoK without the new ship, VH, 09, ID).

I may be wrong, and I hope I am, but that's what I've got from the trailers and commercials. 50 new sets of make up and a new name for a generic villian don't strike me as new when the same basic plot that we've seen so many times is being followed. I'm sick of hero journeys, blown up enterprises, and ships launching at the end. I want to see something different. It maybe the movies can never do that because of the nature of the medium. That's fair enough. I simply can't shake the feeling that I've seen this movie before. Time and time again. Nothing in the marketing has made it feel new to me.

Here is at least a partial reason I disagree.

http://www.trekbbs.com/threads/the-swarm-and-the-new-swarm-a-rewatch.281872/

 

[RAMA]

Current tracking has a $50-$60 million opening so not bad but not good either when compared to the last two. Thank god the budget is back to $150 million it seems and is it me or does the marketing look cheaper as well compared to the last two.

The budget is closer to $200 million and the marketing is far and away more expansive than STID. Commercials started airing on TV a month before STID did. On top of that there is a music tie-in, large numbers of videos, a fan event, San Diego Comicon IMAX event, lots more posters, etc It's not even close.

A distribution deal with a Chinese company will help cover costs for the new movie as well as open up the market to Beyond. It'll likely make $100 million+ in China this time.

http://www.latimes.com/entertainmen...t-star-trek-ninja-turtles-20160417-story.html

RAMA

 

[photon70]

The budget is closer to $200 million and the marketing is far and away more expansive than STID. Commercials started airing on TV a month before STID did. On top of that there is a music tie-in, large numbers of videos, a fan event, San Diego Comicon IMAX event, lots more posters, etc It's not even close.

A distribution deal with a Chinese company will help cover costs for the new movie as well as open up the market to Beyond. It'll likely make $100 million+ in China this time.

http://www.latimes.com/entertainmen...t-star-trek-ninja-turtles-20160417-story.html

RAMA

Not to mention getting 49% of the money spent filming in Vancouver back from British Columbia and the federal Canadian government.

In terms of what I think STB will make in China, I fully expect $125m as an achievable take.

The film's message will likely resonate with a Chinese audience even more plus there is the marketing angle of having a Taiwanese born director. FYI, China considers Taiwan part of China.

 

[RAMA]

 

[photon70]

Hopefully not a $200m budget as that would give STB a hard time breaking even, let alone make a profit.

$150m was the rumored budget before the cast got their pay-rise.

Those pay-rises were rumoured to have added $10-$15m to STB's budget.

So lets say it went up to $165m.

Remember that what we've seen are heaps of action sequences in short trailers.

The film's actual tempo could be more moderate.

 

[photon70]

Crikey! So it opens in China the same day as Australia.

Will be keen to keep an eye on the opening weekend in China.

Shorter movie legs in China. Multiplier for STiD was 2.2

It'll probably need to open at say $55m, to have a chance to finish around $125m.

 

[RAMA]

From Star Trek to Avatar, Zoe Saldana feels very comfortable living in the future

http://www.smh.com.au/entertainment...ble-living-in-the-future-20160627-gpr61e.html

 

[RAMA]

Hopefully not a $200m budget as that would give STB a hard time breaking even, let alone make a profit.

$150m was the rumored budget before the cast got their pay-rise.

Those pay-rises were rumoured to have added $10-$15m to STB's budget.

So lets say it went up to $165m.

Remember that what we've seen are heaps of action sequences in short trailers.

The film's actual tempo could be more moderate.

It was established very early on that the budget wasn't lowered, meaning $190 million minimum..but as we were saying some of that is covered by Alibaba (who knows how much..$25 million??) and 49% of Paramount's money from filiming in Canada. There may also be some perks to filming in Dubai. So maybe Paramount is getting a $200 million film on the screen for $150-175 million...a bargain.

 

[Malaika]

what? china gets the movie next week too? oh come on now so unfair! *pouts*

any chinese fan here?