As long as it improves on 467million worldwide, we're good for a fourth I would say. 600 million is the realistic target in my view.
$600m? Not a chance. The high end of between $400-500m is more likely, but even I think that's expecting too much.
Into Darkness took considerably less at the US box office than
Star Trek 2009. Assuming that trend continues, you're then expecting overseas markets to pick up a hell of a lot of slack (in excess of $100m on top of
Darkness foreign take), and quite simply, overseas demand for Star Trek just isn't there in that quantity.
The important thing here isn't what it takes in box office so much, it's box office takings in relation to the production budget.