ST3 - Box Office?

[Khan 2.0]

think the next film has a good chance of doing 600m ww (250-300m domestic, 250-300m ww) but maybe not 1b (like Skyfall)

-50th anniversary (Star Trek Skyfall)

-STID made almost $100m more than ST09 (unadjusted). so ST3 could do the same

-despite some fan backlash, many movie goers actually liked STID and will be there for Trek 3. likewise those that didnt see it at the cinema but caught it on dvd (and like it) will probably make a point of seeing ST3 when it comes out (esp with the event of the 50th)

-Benedict C is fast becoming a really big name so him in STID no doubt helped dvd/BR sales and maybe even introduced Trek to people who wouldnt normally watch it, who might then want to watch part 3 at the cinema. plus if he appears in ST3 in some way (even a cameo) it could be a bonus (he could be quite the above the title name by 2016)

-Star Wars Ep VII in 2015 should increase the appetite for big space adventure. ST3 could benefit greatly from that

 

[BillJ]

Might wanna clean that up a bit. But I think it's too early to make box office predictions.

 

[xavier]

It will heavily depend on world of mouth. if trek 3 gets excellent reviews. the gross will be 200-250m USA and maybe 500m worldwide.


But I will also hope they promotion is well done. none of the mystery box and excessive secrecy should be used in trek 3. paramount should go full out with the film when it comes to making people aware of the it.


they could start by dropping the 1st trailer with star wars episode 7.

 

[Melakon]

Sort of early to predict performance when they haven't even started shooting yet.

 

[Smellmet]

As long as it betters STID's results I'll be happy.

Realistically best case scenario for me is:

$90m opening weekend
$270 domestic
$600 worldwide

Not a cat in hells chance it will make a billion.

 

[Khan 2.0]

Yeah maybe it too early for these ST3 speculation threads (title, BO etc)

 

[Smellmet]

It's just a discussion, Im sure these threads will come up in a big way closer to the event

 

[xavier]

As long as it betters STID's results I'll be happy.

Realistically best case scenario for me is:

$90m opening weekend
$270 domestic
$600 worldwide

Not a cat in hells chance it will make a billion.

stid was sort of disappointing. do you even know that wrath of kahn was more sucessful than STID. I agree as well as long as it earns more than STID I will be happy.


500m will be terrific of trek. 600m will be the icing on the cake.

 

[Smellmet]

I think 500mil is easily achievable. The problem, like what has been discussed in some other recent threads is the competition. I know I'm just speculating but I'm sure that is STID had been released with the same competition ST09 had it would have easily matched it's domestic gross. They should go for an August slot in 2016 or I fear it will get murdered by superheroes and could easily wind up with less than 200mil domestic, which would be a disaster.

 

[BillJ]

do you even know that wrath of kahn was more sucessful than STID.

Define 'successful'.

 

[Tosk]

It'll do less than STID. Mark it, dude.

 

[BillJ]

It'll do less than STID. Mark it, dude.

If it has solid word of mouth, I think it'll do better because Star Trek Into Darkness had positive word of mouth and did good business in the home video market.

With the right conditions, I think it can do $600 million.

 

[xavier]

do you even know that wrath of kahn was more sucessful than STID.

Define 'successful'.

simple it made more money in the domestic territories once you take away the 3d and imax 3d prices of stid and above all wrath of khan has a superior legacy in comparsion to stid which will forever be seen as a knock off of wrath of khan.

 

[BillJ]

do you even know that wrath of kahn was more sucessful than STID.

Define 'successful'.

simple it made more money in the domestic territories once you take away the 3d and imax 3d prices of stid and above all wrath of khan has a superior legacy in comparsion to stid which will forever be seen as a knock off of wrath of khan.

So it has nothing to do with the actual box office, in a box office thread. Got it.

 

[Commishsleer]

do you even know that wrath of kahn was more sucessful than STID.

Define 'successful'.

simple it made more money in the domestic territories once you take away the 3d and imax 3d prices of stid and above all wrath of khan has a superior legacy in comparsion to stid which will forever be seen as a knock off of wrath of khan.

Yeh and don't count DVD/blu ray/VHS sales
And get rid of overseas sales as only $US count.

I reckon a fair percentage of the audience of STID haven't even seen TWOK.

 

[Franklin]

do you even know that wrath of kahn was more sucessful than STID.

Define 'successful'.

I like it.

 

[BillJ]

Yeh and don't count DVD/blu ray/VHS sales
And get rid of overseas sales as only $US count.

Not to mention that The Wrath of Khan had a longer theatrical run and that it would be at least a year and sometimes more before it made it to home video. Nor that it would be two plus years before it made it to cable and even longer for free TV.

Now, a film gets three months for its theatrical run and you only have to wait four to five months for a movie to hit home video. So if you missed it or want to see it again, home video is right around the corner.

None of this means that The Wrath of Khan wasn't a success. But to try and compare two distinct eras of the movie business is a fools errand. The conditions are entirely different.

 

[Tosk]

It'll do less than STID. Mark it, dude.

If it has solid word of mouth, I think it'll do better because Star Trek Into Darkness had positive word of mouth and did good business in the home video market.

That's why I think it will do less. Trek12 made less than Trek11, and this one won't have JJ directing* so all else being equal ST13 will do less. Just a guess.

*You watch how desperate the advertizing will be though. "From producer JJ ABRAMS" will be all over the place.

 

[F. King Daniel]

Box office success or failure, we get a third film with this cast. That's a win for me.

IIRC, the cast and producers were signed to a three movie deal back in 2007. Even if ST3 is a massive success, this could be the end of the road for this version of Trek

 

[Cinema Geekly]

It will almost certainly hinge on the actual release date and other films that surround it.

May has Cap 3 and X-Men Apocalypse

June has TMNT 2, Uncharted, The Mummy Reboot, and Transformers 5

July has Doctor Strange, Power Rangers reboot, Independence Day 2

August has nothing much yet except for an untitled DC film

To me August has the best chance to score. June has the least Box Office power but it has a lot of movies with name value.