Except that
A Spock and possibly McCoy know Carol.
Carol was in a serious relationship with Kirk
Kirk had a serious thing for a blonde lab tech
Carol is blond and in the sciences and almost certainly would have been a lab tech at some point.
It fits. Unless you care to name another blonde scientist from Kirk's past you can nominate as "That blonde lab tech.
Well, there's Janet Wallace...
Kirk's relationship with Janet Wallace, which ended in June or July of 2261 further constrains the window in which David Marcus might have been conceived. However, Wallace was also a blond medical researcher, which does raise the possibility of another candidate for the "blond lab technician," though that would constrain the window further.
See?

Seriously, though, Janet Wallace was actually the prototype for Carol; as Allan Asherman's excellent The Making of Star Trek II: The Wrath of Khan (1982) shows, the earliest drafts of what became the second Star Trek film did indeed feature Janet Wallace, not Carol Marcus, as Kirk's old flame/mother of his child.