space weather forecast

[rhubarbodendron]

Thought this might be an interesting topic for all of us who like stargazing or are HAMs.


Space weather for Jan 8th/9th 2014:

Today there's a warning of a strong solar storm (ranked S2)heading in our direction. It won't hit us full but only strike a glancing blow to the northern hemisphere.

It's caused by sunspot AR1944 which sent out a few nice flares recently. Yesterday, an X1-class explosion sent a "Coronal Mass Ejection" (CME, aka solar storm) towards us. (X1 is the lowest cathegory in the strongest flare class - we're talking of peaks around 10 to the power of -4 Angstrom here; for comparism: the Bastille Day Event on Jul 14th 2000 was a X6 explosion that triggered an S3 storm)


As this plasmastorm is particularly rich in high-energy Protons (<100 MeV) that are expected to even reach the ground, we can expect lovely polar lights, possibly as far south as Germany / southern Canada.

The storm will reach us tomorrow (Thursday) at 4 am GMT. The maximum will be about 12 hours later.

Source: Dr Werner Courdt, Max Planck Institute for solarsystem research http://www.mps.mpg.de/74609/employee_page?c=211272&employee_id=19634



Here's a nice video of the flare:
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/08jan14/x1s2_anim.gif?PHPSESSID=j88nnkrt7f0k81c4c341tf4hg4 (sorry about the "snowstorm/meteor shower" effect -it's is caused by protons hitting the camera)



And for all those who can't see the polar lights, here's one of my favourite links: the Canadian Space Agency's aurora life webcam. Enjoy http://www.asc-csa.gc.ca/eng/astronomy/auroramax/connect.asp

 

[sojourner]

Yep. Antares launch was scrubbed due to bad space weather today.

 

[rhubarbodendron]

aww, that sucks When is the next start window? The storm should have passed in about 36 hours, I'd estimate.

 

[sojourner]

Last I read they could go on thursday, storm permitting.

 

[gturner]

Why don't they just divert more power to the shields?

 

[sojourner]

Can't, the starboard power coupling was damaged in the last attack.

 

[Robert D. Robot]

I heard that there was also some damage to the aft nacelle.....

 

[rhubarbodendron]

Last I read they could go on thursday, storm permitting.

Acvcording to German media, the start was successful. Cygnus is on its way and if there are no clouds over the US you should be able to see it docked to the ISS. You gotta be quick, though: the ISS moves damned fast! No chance with a telescope imo, but good binoculars should suffice.

As for the storm: a lovely aurora borealis was visible over Great Britain They predict an even better one for tonight:
http://news.sky.com/story/1192933/northern-lights-aurora-borealis-in-the-uk
A pity I am a few 100 miles too far south.

 

[rhubarbodendron]

Cygnus has safely docked to ISS last night, according to the media.

The polar lights were visible as far south as Wales. Here's a pic a wedding photographer took rather accidentially:

Another cool pic: a camera caught the moment a weather baloon was exploding in the stratosphere:

Space weather for today: As the sunspot AR 1944 is gradually decaying, it still causes M-class solar flares. There are strong solar winds with gusts of 800 km/s (roughly 500 mph) so that we can expect more polar lights for tonight, though somewhat weaker than last week.