3D Master
Rear Admiral
Captain Nemo's interest is inseparable from his abilities, which are inseparable from the implicit predictions listed above. Which are wrong.
Bullshit. Captain Nemo's story aren't predictions, and to the navies that Captain Nemo faced, his ship probably was invincible. It wouldn't have stayed invincible, but at the time they didn't have much of anything that could go against the Nautilus.
But all of that doesn't matter; those aren't predictions, that's a story. The prediction is submarine.
You seem to be committed to validating science fiction for its predictive power.
Bullshit. I did that nowhere even close.
There have been practically no significant predictions from science fiction about anything that matters, especially in the way that invincible submarines destroying navies would matter.
The bare existence of submarines just isn't a big thing.
Except that it is a big thing, in fact, I'd say it was such a big thing that without captain Nemo it would have taken a lot longer before someone had the idea to actually build a submarine.
Also, you conveniently forget the moon landing, desktop computers, the internet, space-travel in/of itself, and although not technically accurate and more of a metaphor, you could say building a being from different other life forms in Frankenstein is a prediction as well. Then there's laser cannons and flight, and on, and on, the whole list that I mentioned, and that isn't even all of them.
There has been much inspiration from science fiction but this is not the same thing at all.
Yes, it is. If a prediction directly leads to what is predicted it's still an accurate prediction, even if it is a self-fulfilling one.
And there's been a lot of thought provoking commentary on where we might be going, but that's not the same thing either.
Which has no bearing on the discussion.
The story about a computer expert thinking a multitude of small computers everywhere, linked together, was unrealistic because it was so unlike his experience emphasizes that believability is a function of experience. Yes, subsequent events proved that story got a detail right. It did not tell us anything about how it's changed commerce, sexual mores, education and journalism. Do even you remember the name of this marvel of science fiction?
First, a story doesn't require to have every single last detail of the future correct in order to be realistic. And desktop computers linked together in an internet is not a detail, it's the very essence of the story, it's the large thing. The things you mentioned THOSE are the details.
Second, since I haven't read the story, I've read of it, the story may very well have predicted the rest as well.
Third, no, I don't remember its name.
Moreover, most stories of the period had the giant computers. People can still read Asimov's Multivac stories with a great deal of pleasure. I fondly remember All the Cares of the World and The Last Question. How can stories so unrealistic still be of interest, if good science fiction is not about correct predictions? In most Asimov stories, one big thing, that science and technology can give us new powers and pose new questions was gotten right.
I never said anything about Science Fiction being about correct predictions. I said good Science Fiction requires realism; aka, there are is no such thing as black holes sucking up planets in seconds when we know this stuff doesn't happen by just LOOKING AT THE DAMN THINGS. Aka, IT REQUIRES REALISM, the premise of the friggin' thread.
You just went off a tangent and said that just because things in Science Fiction aren't true, they can't have realism, which is what I disputed. 1 there's plenty of realism in SF stories, like the stories that have Black Holes not suck up planets in seconds. 2 there are even realistic portrayals of future technology and/or science in SF stories, then and now, even if they got a few details right because they aren't clearvoyant.
You spend your time saying an SF writer can write fantasy without any effort and research and pass it off as SF, because SF is just fantasy anyway. It isn't.
But I would think you agree about this. You call that near forgotten story about little computers "realistic." But you make this call using hindsight. My objection is, if "realism" is to be defined in hindsight, the term is so useless as to be misleading.
The term isn't defined in hindsight; he produced a realistic story even back then, despite "authority figures" claiming he wasn't. It's the reason why put quotes around "not realistic" and "realistic" in the post about that. The man writer wrote a realistic story, because made an assumption, "computers will get smaller" and extrapolated from that what it meant. Whether or not his assumption is wrong doesn't matter to his realistic extrapolation of what this would mean for computers and where they'd end up, and how this would impact the people and the world (whether or not he foresaw the full scope of what it would matters, again, not).
Now, if he had gone on to simply write complete bullshit, like say... an magnatic south pole and north pole repel each other, we got something that would be unrealistic and utter bullshit.
The reason it is so misleading is that there is no meaningful sense in which science fiction is truly realistic, it's just written that. Or, it was, but the fantasy pays better, so more and more stuff is written like fantasy.
PS Days of the week named after Roman gods, January named after Roman gods, July and August named after Julius Caesar and Augustus Caesar mean that our calendar dates back to the Roman Empire, if not earlier. Gregory did a minor reset. If the Pope and Robespierre couldn't change the calendar, then it wasn't going to change to honor Henry Ford. (And the amusing part is that Anno Domini dates, which are a significant part of the calendar, don't go back to either Julius Caesar or Pope Gregory so literally we're both wrong!)
Which of course, DOESN'T MATTER. Whether or not the implementers of the Gregorian calendar chose not to overhaul everything, doesn't matter. The Gregorian calendar wasn't simply a minor reset. For example December 25th used to be the Winter Solstice in the Julian calendar. They did not however shift Christmas to a proper Gregorian 21st of December - for Christians, that's a big thing. In fact, they probably did this deliberately: to (further or complete) the divorce of Christe's birth celebration from the pagan celebration of the Winter Solstice the church hijacked.