Predict your top 10 summer 2009 movies

[Captain Craig]

Predict your top 10 summer 2008 movies

Threads on Iron Man
Threads on Dark Knight
Theads on Indiana Jones
Threads on possible stinkers


As we do most years we predict what is cream and what is crap. Time to pony up and distill our thoughts into one place.

To help you handicap your predictions in case you already haven't made one in another thread somewhere here are Entertainment Weeklys predictions. Courtesy of issue #988.




EW predictions with US domestic gross:

1. Indiana Jones:KotCS - $355.9m
2. Narnia: Prince Caspian - $310.8m
3. Hancock - $280.4m
4. Wall*E - $280.3m
5. Iron Man - $262.7m
6. Dark Knight - $255.0m
7. Kung Fu Panda - $224.6m
8. Mummy3:Tomb of Dragon Emperor - $176.5m
9. The Incredible Hulk - $147.2m
10. Tropic Thunder - $142.6m

Top 5 movies from
2004
Shrek 2
Spiderman 2
Potter:Azkaban
Day after Tomorrow
Bourne Supermecy

2005
Revenge of Sith
War of Worlds
Wedding Crashers
Charlie & Chocolate Factory
Batman Begins

2006
Pirates 2
Cars
X-Men 3
DaVinci Code
Superman Returns

2007
Spiderman 3
Shrek 3
Transformers
Pirates 3
Potter:Phoenix


Post Summer movies only. Typical summer movie season May(Iron Man) thru Labor Day. So don't be posting about Quantum of Solace or any Fall movies.

Movies to also keep in mind: Sex&the City, X-Files 2, Pineapple Express, Hellboy 2, Get Smart, Love Guru.

 

[Out Of My Vulcan Mind]

For the sake of comparison and perspective, here are the number of films per summer that have gone over the $100 million, $150 million, $200 million, $ 300 million, and $400 million marks since the year 2000:


2007

$100 m - 17
$150 m - 8
$200 m - 7
$300 m - 4
$400 m - 0

2006

$100 m - 11
$150 m - 6
$200 m - 5
$300 m - 1
$400 m - 1

2005

$100 m - 10
$150 m - 9
$200 m - 5
$300 m - 1
$400 m - 0

2004

$100 m - 11
$150 m - 5
$200 m - 3
$300 m - 2
$400 m - 1

2003

$100 m - 17
$150 m - 6
$200 m - 5
$300 m - 2
$400 m - 0

2002

$100 m - 13
$150 m - 6
$200 m - 4
$300 m - 2
$400 m - 1

2001

$100 m - 11
$150 m - 6
$200 m - 3
$300 m - 0
$400 m - 0

2000

$100 m - 12
$150 m - 6
$200 m - 1
$300 m - 0
$400 m - 0

My Predictions for the Top 10 of Summer 2008

1. Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull - $350 million
2. The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian - $270 million
3. Wall*E - $260 million
4. The Dark Knight - $250 million
5. Hancock - $ 230 million
6. Iron Man - $180 million
7. Kung Fu Panda - $170 million
8. The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor - $160 million
9. The Incredible Hulk - $140 million
10. Sex and the City - $130 million

Edit to add: Captain Craig, I presume that you're asking for predictions for this summer and that the "2009" in your thread title is a typo.

 

[Miss Chicken]

The thread title says 2009 not 2008.

I have six movies on my list for 2009 which are :The Lovely Bones", "The Tripods", "Fahrenheit 451". "Where the Wild Things Are", "The Owl in Daylight" (starring Paul Giamatti as Philip K Dick) and "Rendezvous with Rama"

However as this thread seems to be about 2008, I will say the big-thre midyear will be Indiana Jones, Dark Knight, and Narnia with Iron Man doing well and later in the year Harry Potter will do well.

 

[Trekker4747]

Is it 2009 already?!

Oh shit!

I'm 30 now.

 

[Haytil]

No way is "Iron Man" going to beat out "Dark Knight." It may profit more (if "Iron Man" is significantly cheaper), but the gross of "Dark Knight" will surely beat it out.

 

[Bad Bishop]

Re: Predict your top 10 summer 2008 movies

For all these films, let's assume reviews are mostly favorable.

I believe that Prince Caspian and Wall•E will take the top 2 spots.

I don't know why anyone thinks Indiana Jones will do Transformers-level business. I doubt that most kids in middle school are really looking forward to this film. Indy is an icon to baby-boomers, not to the younger set. Nevertheless, Indy should be good for at least $200 million.

Iron Man will win in the superhero category because he's new and he's Marvel. I think an $80 million opening weekend and a total gross of $225-250 million is possible.

The usual sequel malaise (diminishing box office) will afflict The Dark Knight, and it will struggle to hit $200 million. There's no shame in that.

Get Smart and The X-Files: I Want To Believe will top off at around $100 million (I hope). That may be modest compared to the blockbusters, but it will be enough to guarantee follow-ups for each.

 

[Cicero]

I won't speculate beyond the top five:

Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull
Iron Man
Wall*E
Hancock
The Dark Knight

 

[Cicero]

Re: Predict your top 10 summer 2008 movies

I don't know why anyone thinks Indiana Jones will do Transformers-level business. I doubt that most kids in middle school are really looking forward to this film. Indy is an icon to baby-boomers, not to the younger set. Nevertheless, Indy should be good for at least $200 million.

I'm not old enough to have seen any of the Indy films in theaters, but almost everyone I know loves Indiana Jones (even my younger sister and first girlfriend, who both hate Star Wars). It's not just for Boomers and X-ers.

 

[chrisspringob]

Note how, in every single one of the last four summers, the top grossing movie of the summer (and of the year, for that matter) was a sequel. I'm thus going to go out on a limb and predict that the highest grossing movie of Summer 2008 will be a sequel.

 

[nx1701g]

No way is "Iron Man" going to beat out "Dark Knight." It may profit more (if "Iron Man" is significantly cheaper), but the gross of "Dark Knight" will surely beat it out.

I don't know. I really think that the length of TDK will hurt it regarding how many theatre's hold it and how many showings they have. My local theatre - for example - had Superman Returns showing on 8 of 20 screens one week then it went down to three the following week. I think that the length may be the damaging thing.

 

[Temis the Vorta]

starring Paul Giamatti as Philip K Dick

Can it be 2009 now?

 

[Miss Chicken]

starring Paul Giamatti as Philip K Dick

Can it be 2009 now?

Are you saying this because you like Paul Giamatti as an actor, Philip K Dick as a writer or both?

 

[tomalak301]

This thread is giving me a headache. All the details, all the news everyone knows and I couldn't even name you 10 films that are coming this summer. I know a few, like Iron Man, Dark Knight, Speed Racer, and another Incredible Hulk (Which because Hulk was so awful, I'm not going to see this one) but other than that, I guess I can't predict anything.

 

[Captain Craig]

Edit to add: Captain Craig, I presume that you're asking for predictions for this summer and that the "2009" in your thread title is a typo.

Yes, sorry about that BBS'ers. I've corrected that now.

My predictions for Summer 2008
1. Indiana Jones - $375m (I think gas prices and related finance issues will keep it from $400m. Even though I think we are due another one.)
2. Narnia: Prince Caspian - $280m
3. Wall*E - $250m (I personally have no interest but Pixar gives it cred)
4. Iron Man - $225m(new, first out of gate, huge buzz,Marvel)
5. Hancock - $215m(Will Smith+July open+superhero theme=money)
6. Dark Knight - $210m(runtime, darker, vs Will Smith)
7. Kung Fu Panda - $190m(a true kids movie usually does well, I see Wall*E as equal part adult interest)
8. The Incredible Hulk - $160m(my biggest gamble but I think news on this film will take a turn for the better)
9. Mummy 3 - $150m (late summer entry, cast change with Maria Bello could hurt)
10. Sex & the City - $125m (This is more than a "girls" movie but will be overshadowed between Indy & Hulk)

I predict X-Files: I want to believe will start strong and struggle to about $90m but still good enough for a sequel. Sorry, Bishop I want it to hit $100m also but think it'll get lost in the shuffle by its 3rd week in release.

 

[Kegek]

starring Paul Giamatti as Philip K Dick

Can it be 2009 now?

Are you saying this because you like Paul Giamatti as an actor, Philip K Dick as a writer or both?

Can't speak for Temis, but the very idea of Giamatti as PKD in a biopic fills me with ardent glee. And yes, it's because I think Giamatti's a great actor and I love PKD. Best of both worlds have joined in unison. One of my more eagerly anticipated releases pretty much for those reasons alone.

Anyway, no predictions from me. I might be able to horoscope which films I'm likely to like the most (which would be a more literal reading of 'predict your top 10 summer movies', no?); but not figures and statistics about profit of the big names.

 

[Bad Bishop]

Edit to add: Captain Craig, I presume that you're asking for predictions for this summer and that the "2009" in your thread title is a typo.

Yes, sorry about that BBS'ers. I've corrected that now.

How come the correction doesn't show on the main page for the forum?

 

[Jax]

IMO...

Indiana Jones will take top spot this year with over $300 million in the U.S Market but a huge wordwide total.

Narnia: Prince Caspian, could make more in the U.S than Indiana Jones 4 but worldwide it won't be as popular.

Dark Knight will make around $250 million in the U.S and $500-$600 million worldwide total.

Iron Man is a tough one because I don't know the size of the fanbase and little about the character but I think at least $200 million though it might not be so well around the world so a final total of $350-400.

Will smith will bring in alot of bucks but won't be his biggest hit so I will say $150-200 in the U.S and the worldwide total of $350-450 million.

Hulk will struggle for me and make no more than $150 in the U.S and won't pass $300 worldwide.

Mummy 3 will be a decent hit I suppose but I can't see it going past $150 in the U.S and won't pass $350 worldwide.

Get Smart for me will get between $100-140 million in the U.S and might fall short of a $300 million worldwide total but still should be a decent money maker.

The X Files for me will pass $100 million in the U.S and reach a total of around $200-225 worldwide.

I know a fall release but got to say Bond will probably make it in top 3 after the reception CR got and for me $150 minimum in the U.S and will make an extra $500 million in other countires.

 

[DanTheGrey]

I used to be really into this sort of game, but I haven't really been as enthused with movies in the last 5 years or so...

Can't say how well they'll do but the only ones that I'll probably see in the theatre will probably be Iron Man, and my wife will want to see X-Files. That being said either of those two could get relegated to DVD quite easily since we're just finding the theatre experience to not be worth the $9.50/ticket.

 

[Dream]

Edit to add: Captain Craig, I presume that you're asking for predictions for this summer and that the "2009" in your thread title is a typo.

Yes, sorry about that BBS'ers. I've corrected that now.

How come the correction doesn't show on the main page for the forum?

Posters can't change topic titles after 5 minutes have past. You need to PM a mod in order to change the topic title.

 

[JacksonArcher]

I don't know why people are making so many assumptions about The Dark Knight's runtime, just because one internet website said it would run close to three hours, when the director himself confirmed an admittedly projected runtime of 140 minutes.

In any case, I do think Indiana Jones will own the summer, if not the year, followed by Prince Caspian and Wall*E. I think The Dark Knight will outperform Iron Man, because it is building on a successful first installment and like X-Men 2, Star Trek II, Blade II, etc. outperform its predecessor. That mixed with Heath Ledger's untimely death will skyrocket sales and anticipation for the film.

I think The Incredible Hulk will do well, enough to guarantee a sequel, but it won't shatter the roof and won't make nearly as much as The Dark Knight or Iron Man, but will still be considered a success (even if it is moderate) by Marvel.

Speed Racer will flop.