Predict where the DJI will bottom out.
- Thread starter Jadzia
- Start date
G
Garrovick
Guest
No less than 3000.
I think we're close to the bottom but it's really hard to say. The experts don't know. I'd be surprised if we got below 6500 though, at least not for a sustained period. I suppose it's possible when the bank package is revealed it could cause it to tumble further but I suspect that it'll recover above that level shortly.
But, dang, most experts didn't for see the crisis to begin with so speculation about the specifics is difficult. Personally, I think the summer will be the low point and things will recover after that.
Mr Awe
But, dang, most experts didn't for see the crisis to begin with so speculation about the specifics is difficult. Personally, I think the summer will be the low point and things will recover after that.
Mr Awe
Last time we did this topic (Oct 2008), I predicted it would fall a similar percentage drop to what it did during the previous bear, ie to about 7250. I was looking good on that prediction until the past couple of weeks. Now, I'm thinking around 6250. For purpose of the poll, I picked the 6-6.25 range.
The worrying thing is that the skeletons in the financial closet just keep on coming. AIG's latest bailout and HSBC's capital raising are two examples.
EDIT - I agree with Mr Awe that from now until summer will be turbulent.
Give me about 6400.
Until recently I thought the floor was around 8,000. Clearly I'm in no position to make predictions. Personally, though, I find the S&P500 to be a much better index for gauging the economy as a whole, and it's at 712.87 today, which means its lost nearly half its value. (Basically tracking the Dow at this point.)
Not really. Even right here on the BBS, lots of people were predicting lower levels. Not quite low enough, as it happens, but lower than 8000.
You might have heard stuff like 8000 being a resistance level. There are various resistance levels which when broken through cause a precipitous & near-inevitable further decline because of computer trading programs based on analyst predictions. I can't recall if 8000 was a key level, but round figures with lots of zeroes tend to be, out of human nature.
I'll say no lower than 6000; but I'm kind of thinking we're around the bottom now, but will stay there for a while.
It might still just be a false dawn, but based on the market's response today and over the past couple of week, if I was a bookie I'd probably be thinking about covering my margins because it looks like a payout to ByrdMan, faubert, J. Allen & Mr Awe. 
My own call upthread of 6250 seems likely to be out by a couple hundred points, though never say never!
I have to admit that I'm a lot happier about my investments than when this thread was posted. Must be all that fresh Spring air...
My own call upthread of 6250 seems likely to be out by a couple hundred points, though never say never!
I have to admit that I'm a lot happier about my investments than when this thread was posted. Must be all that fresh Spring air...
Everyone I've talked too is hyping up over the fact that the DOW closed at 7700+ today. What they don't realize is that it's not over yet. We've not seen the bottom, and right not the false confidence is built on what the govt. is SAYING. Once we get into the nuts and bolts and banks and lenders are actually affected by these plans, then we'll see if the confidence hold or if, as I think will happen, we'll see a quick run down the lowside of 6k/upper 5K.
Besides a high DOW doesn't mean the end of a recession. People are still going to lose jobs, homes, etc. Consumers are still going to be tight with a dollar, so retail is still going to be in a slump. We're not out of the woods yet.
Besides a high DOW doesn't mean the end of a recession. People are still going to lose jobs, homes, etc. Consumers are still going to be tight with a dollar, so retail is still going to be in a slump. We're not out of the woods yet.
^ I don't know about that. The nuts & bolts of the plan from what I can see can basically be boiled down to "free cash for your old rope". The terms are generous, to say the least. It doesn't really solve long-term problems, but it does get several institutions out of a short-term hole and that may just be enough to get things moving.
On your last point, the wider economy always lags the market by about a year or two, for pretty straightforward speculative reasons. Of course the wider economy is still dropping off a cliff. I'm not a politician, nor an economist, so I don't really care have to care about that all too much - I'm just hoping my personal equity investments start to tick back up some more. Of course there'll be fits, starts & profit-taking but I'm really keeping my fingers crossed that the past couple of weeks is the start of the long, slow climb back up.
On your last point, the wider economy always lags the market by about a year or two, for pretty straightforward speculative reasons. Of course the wider economy is still dropping off a cliff. I'm not a politician, nor an economist, so I don't really care have to care about that all too much - I'm just hoping my personal equity investments start to tick back up some more. Of course there'll be fits, starts & profit-taking but I'm really keeping my fingers crossed that the past couple of weeks is the start of the long, slow climb back up.
Everyone though the first round of "Free money" was free. And they learned if you don't spend it the way Uncle Sam expected you too, then they're going to rain down on you and want it back (AIG, I'm looking at you). There's no such thing as a free lunch, I think a lot of people that are thinking right now that there is are going to be surprised in a few weeks.
Well, it's certainly true that a lot of retroactive stuff was thrown into the tarp funding. I guess we'll see what comes out in the wash, as you say. Still, I get the vibe that the worst is over.
Amusing story of the day: Goldman Sachs wants to pay back the $10B it borrowed ASAP (maybe within a month) but the Treasury may well refuse to take the money back so quickly because it would cause other, less stable, institutions to feel they have to do the same. It's a pretty ridiculous/amusing situation when a borrower wants to pay the taxpayer back quicker than scheduled and the government might refuse!
Amusing story of the day: Goldman Sachs wants to pay back the $10B it borrowed ASAP (maybe within a month) but the Treasury may well refuse to take the money back so quickly because it would cause other, less stable, institutions to feel they have to do the same. It's a pretty ridiculous/amusing situation when a borrower wants to pay the taxpayer back quicker than scheduled and the government might refuse!
Looks like the DOW is set to close down -100ish today. Not surprised, really.
Anyone watch the AIG hearing today? Man, they were getting effing analled by the committee today. And not the Fed and the Treasury are wanting to expand their official powers and ovesight...yeah, that's going to ping the market on open.
Anyone watch the AIG hearing today? Man, they were getting effing analled by the committee today. And not the Fed and the Treasury are wanting to expand their official powers and ovesight...yeah, that's going to ping the market on open.
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