Predict the Best Picture Oscar noms.

[Kegg]

At this point though I consider Cameron & Avatar the front-runners for those awards.

I'm not sure I agree there. They won the Globes, but nobody at the Globes actually votes at the Academy.

I'm with JacksonArcher here, actually. Avatar is now one of those movies like Titanic and Return of the King and Ben-Hur: It made bucketloads of money, coupled with some critical acclaim, was an eye-popping epic, and now it's heading to Hollywood to collect. I think Avatar has, at least, a better shot at the little golden man than any sci-fi movie has ever got.

Granted I used the same logic with the Dark Knight last time round, so I may be an idiot like that. But this made even more money. That counts for something, amirite?

As far as the Globes go I'd be pegging Inglorious Basterds a more likely script win than Up in the Air. If only because it's an infinitely superior script which really does feel like somebody's worked on it for years and years.

 

[CaptainCanada]

I'm with JacksonArcher here, actually. Avatar is now one of those movies like Titanic and Return of the King and Ben-Hur: It made bucketloads of money, coupled with some critical acclaim, was an eye-popping epic, and now it's heading to Hollywood to collect. I think Avatar has, at least, a better shot at the little golden man than any sci-fi movie has ever got.

If the Producers Guild didn't feel the need to vote on the basis of huge money, why would the Academy?

I agree at this point it could very likely win, but I'd put it at 50/50.

As far as the Globes go I'd be pegging Inglorious Basterds a more likely script win than Up in the Air. If only because it's an infinitely superior script which really does feel like somebody's worked on it for years and years.

Uh, those are in separate categories. UitA is Adapted, Basterds is Original; and, as I already said, they're both extremely likely to win their categories.

 

[Kegg]

If the Producers Guild didn't feel the need to vote on the basis of huge money, why would the Academy?

Because they have in the past? That's all I've got.

Uh, those are in separate categories. UitA is Adapted, Basterds is Original; and, as I already said, they're both extremely likely to win their categories.

It's adapted? Really? Feh. Was the book any better?

 

[CaptainCanada]

No idea, I haven't read it (though Up in the Air was one of my favourite movies of the year, so I doubt it could be better). The book is very different, though, from what I understand (there's no Natalie, for example).

 

[Kegg]

The book is very different, though, from what I understand (there's no Natalie, for example).

Makes sense. The film felt more than a little toothless with regard to its excellent black humour premise (unlike the excellent equilibrium achieved by Thank You For Smoking), so I wonder if the novel was more ruthless in that regard.

Oh, yeah, and The White Ribbon is a lock for best foreign film. Definitely. No question.

 

[SiorX]

Not entirely on-topic, but I just had a horrible thought. They aren't stupid enough to pull the stunt of giving a Lifetime Achievement Oscar to Polanksi, are they?

 

[JacksonArcher]

Not entirely on-topic, but I just had a horrible thought. They aren't stupid enough to pull the stunt of giving a Lifetime Achievement Oscar to Polanksi, are they?

His personal problems aside, he is a fantastic talent. His latest film, The Ghost Writer, has been receiving a lot of acclaim. I look forward to seeing it.

 

[CaptainCanada]

Kathryn Bigelow wins the DGA prize, making her the prohibitive favourite to win Best Director. Only 6 times in 61 years has the winner of the DGA lost the Oscar for the same.

 

[Kira's Mom]

Kathryn Bigelow wins the DGA prize, making her the prohibitive favourite to win Best Director. Only 6 times in 61 years has the winner of the DGA lost the Oscar for the same.

Awesome! She'll be the first woman to win the Oscar if she does win.

 

[JacksonArcher]

Kathryn Bigelow wins the DGA prize, making her the prohibitive favourite to win Best Director. Only 6 times in 61 years has the winner of the DGA lost the Oscar for the same.

I would love for her to win. The Hurt Locker was a stunning directorial achievement. However, even with that, I think the DGA is going to be wrong 7 times this year. I think James Cameron will win the Oscar for Best Director.

 

[Kegg]

^
Avatar Best Picture, Kathryn Bigelow Best Director would be an interesting divide.

 

[JacksonArcher]

^
Avatar Best Picture, Kathryn Bigelow Best Director would be an interesting divide.

Agreed. It would mirror the 2006 Oscars, where Ang Lee won Best Director for Brokeback Mountain and Crash won Best Picture.

 

[CaptainCanada]

The only people who actually vote for the Best Director Oscar are the director members of the Academy, all of whom are also Guild members; between this and the support of the Producers Guild, I think The Hurt Locker has to be said to have the upper hand at this point (as well as the very lukewarm reception the film is getting from actors). I think Avatar's getting nothing but technicals at this point.

 

[JacksonArcher]

We can argue semantics all day. I am not disputing that The Hurt Locker has a lot of momentum now after Bigelow won the DGA (and since it also won the PGA). However, Avatar did win Best Director and Best Picture at the Golden Globes, so that has to equate to something. Along with its huge box office momentum and equal critical acclaim, I'm not ready to count out Avatar just yet.

However, I'm genuinely just going by my gut here. I think the Academy will want to make up for not giving The Dark Knight a Best Picture nomination and since Avatar is now all but the highest grossing film of all time, I think it has a very fair chance at nabbing Best Picture, with Cameron gaining enough support from his peers to get the Best Director nod. Do I want Cameron and Avatar to win? Absolutely not. I enjoyed The Hurt Locker (and Up in the Air) significantly more and if Bigelow does end up winning Best Director and Hurt Locker does end up winning Best Picture, I will hardly complain. In fact, I will rejoice.

I'm just saying how I feel and how I think events will unfold come the ceremony.

 

[Kegg]

Do I want Cameron and Avatar to win? Absolutely not.

I'm pretty much easy to go either way here. I liked Hurt Locker, but not as much as some people; I found Up in the Air the sort of forgettable mediocre comedy that has no business being a frontrunner in a year of brilliant films like A Serious Man and Inglourious Basterds. And Avatar wasn't my favourite sci-fi film of last year - probably the fourth out of the four good ones - but I still liked that too.

So, honestly, unless all of a sudden A Serious Man gets a shot (it will not), or even more implausibly one of the other sci-fi vehicles; bon voyage to all of them.

 

[Geckothan]

Some generic popcorn movies that I didn't bother watching.

 

[CaptainCanada]

However, Avatar did win Best Director and Best Picture at the Golden Globes, so that has to equate to something.

Nobody who votes for the Globes votes for the Oscars, so the Guild Awards are usually better predictors, I've found (though the Globes have a decent track record in the acting categories). The Drama Globe has only lined up with the Best Picture Oscar once in the last five years (though the Director Globe has a much better track record, 4 of 5).

I found Up in the Air the sort of forgettable mediocre comedy

I don't think Up in the Air was a comedy.

 

[JacksonArcher]

Up in the Air had comedic elements, but it was more of a "dramedy". Quite a somber one at that. It's hard to call a film that deals with job loss and job insecurity categorically a comedy.

I have yet to see A Serious Man, but I've heard it got rave reviews. Inglourious Basterds was a disappointment to me so I don't really think it should garner any consideration, even though obviously it has.

Avatar is definitely not the best science-fiction film of 2009 -- that distinction goes to Moon, with both Star Trek and District 9 trailing not that far behind, but alas, Moon seems to be overshadowed by some of the flashier science-fiction films of last year. A shame, really.

And I guess we'll find out if our nomination predictions were at all accurate tomorrow morning when they announce the Academy Award nominations.

 

[CaptainCanada]

I have yet to see A Serious Man, but I've heard it got rave reviews.

Yeah, I definitely want to see that.

Regarding the nominations, I'll make one other guess at a surprise nomination: Anthony Mackie (The Hurt Locker) for Best Supporting Actor. The Globes and SAG nominated the same five people for that award, but I suspect at least one won't make it. Matt Damon was fine in Invictus, but the buzz around that film has cooled a bit (though Damon is still well-liked enough that he may get one anyway; and it's certainly not a bad performance). With THL's stock rising more and more, they may throw a bone to Mackie, the film's other essential performance.

 

[Mr. Laser Beam]

I'd just like to point out that I love this thread title.

Best Picture Oscar noms? What's that, somebody eats the statue during their acceptance speech?