Predict "Star Trek"'s Oscar nominations!

[Eddie Roth]

Next Tuesday (Feb 2), the Academy of Motion Pictures Arts and Sciences will announce the nominations for the 82nd Academy Awards. What's fantastic is that for the first time in a long time, Star Trek is a strong contender to pick up some nominations. Trek's Oscar performance so far is this:

1979
Star Trek - The Motion Picture

• Art Direction (lost to "All That Jazz")
• Visual Effects (lost to "Alien")
• Original Score (lost to "A Little Romance")

1986
Star Trek IV: The Voyage Home

• Cinematography (lost to "The Mission")
• Sound Effects Editing (lost to "Aliens")
• Sound (lost to "Platoon")
• Original Score (lost to "'Round Midnight")

1991
Star Trek VI: The Undiscovered Country

• Sound Effects Editing (lost to "Terminator 2: Judgment Day")
• Makeup (lost to "Terminator 2: Judgment Day")

1996
Star Trek: First Contact

• Makeup (lost to "The Nutty Professor")

Can STXI beat TVH's Oscar record and take more than 4 nominations? Or can it even make what would certainly be Star Trek history in a big way by becoming one of the 10 Best Picture nominees as some Oscarwatchers have hinted at as a possibility? Take the poll, let's predict how much the Academy likes the new movie.

Included here are all the categories in which the film is eligible and has at least a theoretical shot (some are of course very long shots). These are also the ones that the studio has been campaigning for

 

[MvRojo]

Best Picture
Best Sound Editing
Best Sound Mixing
Best Visual Effects

It won't win any of them, but it's pretty cool that it will almost certainly get a Best Picture nod.

 

[Eddie Roth]

Well, is it really so certain? MvRojo, you seem to be following lots of Oscar-related news, as I've gathered these past few weeks... Are you basing your opinion on anything other than the PGA nomination? Because as much as I would love to see a BP nomination happen, I still can't imagine they'll go there.... Mentions from nearly all guilds including the ACE and at least a Stunt Ensemble win at SAG nonwithstanding.

 

[USS KG5]

Couple of nods for the technical stuff maybe.

A BEST PICTURE nomination!!! If it happens I will be absolutely amazed!

 

[Starbreaker]

Film Editing, Sound Editing, Costumes, Visual Effects

Possibly best picture. I think there's an 80% chance.

 

[MvRojo]

Well, is it really so certain? MvRojo, you seem to be following lots of Oscar-related news, as I've gathered these past few weeks... Are you basing your opinion on anything other than the PGA nomination? Because as much as I would love to see a BP nomination happen, I still can't imagine they'll go there.... Mentions from nearly all guilds including the ACE and at least a Stunt Ensemble win at SAG nonwithstanding.

I think it now has a very good probability, something I wouldn't have said a month ago. A couple of films that seemed like sure things (most notably Nine) seemed to have lost much of its support.

The 100% sure things right now are:
Avatar
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Precious
Up in the Air

Highly Likely:
A Serious Man
District 9
Invictus
Star Trek
Up

That's 11 movies. I'd hope A Serious Man doesn't get a nod, but if it does, I'd expect either Star Trek or District 9 to get bumped out.

 

[Hyperspace05]

I predict 4:
Best Picture
Sound Mixing
Visual Effects
Makeup

 

[Agenda]

Possibly shut out.

 

[Eddie Roth]

Shut out entirely, Antares? Nope, that won't happen.

MvRojo: I quite liked A Serious Man, but I too see it as the weakest link in what people are predicting right now. Doesn't strike me as a film that many people would name their #1 choice, or, for that matter, that many people even understood.

I would say people are overestimating Star Trek's chances for a Makeup nomination. It's still on the shortlist of seven, but these makeup folks in the Academy are either a weird bunch or one of the branches with the highest degree of professional integrity. They rarely seem to be swayed by movies that were liked a lot, and instead they do very much focus on the most impressive makeup jobs. Which is how films like Norbit, Click, and Hellboy II: The Golden Army (all of which no one had on their predictions) ended up nominees. I see a similar thing happening this year. Night at the Museum 2 would be my guess. If anything, Nero will get ST this nomination - making famous actors unrecognizable is popular - the rest of the makeup seems to be very much in the background of the film.

 

[Isis]

I'd like to see STXI win in one of the technical categories.

 

[Jeri]

How many "Original Score" nominations will there be? Is that also 10?

I think the score is well liked among the general public; my 19-year old nephew is a musician, and he likes the music a lot. He's kind of like that kid in the "Enterprising Young Guitarist" video.

 

[Geckothan]

Why isn't there a "none" option?

 

[Hyperspace05]

How many "Original Score" nominations will there be? Is that also 10?

5

 

[MvRojo]

How many "Original Score" nominations will there be? Is that also 10?

I think the score is well liked among the general public; my 19-year old nephew is a musician, and he likes the music a lot. He's kind of like that kid in the "Enterprising Young Guitarist" video.

There are 5 and if Michael Giacchino gets nominated, it'll likely be for "Up."

 

[MvRojo]

Shut out entirely, Antares? Nope, that won't happen.

MvRojo: I quite liked A Serious Man, but I too see it as the weakest link in what people are predicting right now. Doesn't strike me as a film that many people would name their #1 choice, or, for that matter, that many people even understood.

I would say people are overestimating Star Trek's chances for a Makeup nomination. It's still on the shortlist of seven, but these makeup folks in the Academy are either a weird bunch or one of the branches with the highest degree of professional integrity. They rarely seem to be swayed by movies that were liked a lot, and instead they do very much focus on the most impressive makeup jobs. Which is how films like Norbit, Click, and Hellboy II: The Golden Army (all of which no one had on their predictions) ended up nominees. I see a similar thing happening this year. Night at the Museum 2 would be my guess. If anything, Nero will get ST this nomination - making famous actors unrecognizable is popular - the rest of the makeup seems to be very much in the background of the film.

I liked some of the technical aspects of A Serious Man, but the story just didn't grab me as much as all the other Coen Brothers films have.

I also don't think Trek really warrants a makeup nomination. The most prominent makeup work was stuff that was done 45 years ago.

 

[Eddie Roth]

Indeed, my thinking as well.

Anyway, the chances for the score being nominated may have just been given a boost now that the International Film Music Critics Association has included it among their five nominees. No doubt the Oscar nominations in that category will look different, they always do, but out of their list, the films most likely to go out are Drag Me To Hell and Twilight: New Moon.

 

[23skidoo]

Although I still think Avatar will fill the Best Picture quota for SF/F-related films, a couple of critics for the Sun Media newspaper chain in Canada seem to think it stands a good chance of making the top 10:

http://www.calgarysun.com/entertainment/movies/2010/01/29/12664646.html

Unfortunately, I do get the feeling that if the Academy doesn't give Avatar best picture they'll probably make up for it by giving it most of the other awards for SFX, director, ect.

Right now the only nomination I can be pretty confident in is Visual Effects and Score -- and even then, the fact the original Alexander Courage theme is used, that might knock it out of the race. Cinematography and Art Direction are other possibilities -- if the lens flares aren't an issue and as long as the voters don't see the set design as being just an updating of what's gone before.

I have to admit I'm puzzled that so many sites are predicting a Best Picture nomination for District 9. I thought that film kind of came and went and the impression I got from friends who saw it and reviews I read was it was basically just a variation on V (I certainly had no interest in seeing it). I definitely don't see it getting a BP nomination if Avatar and Trek get nods because, as I say, we'll be lucky to get one SF/F film in there, let alone 3.

Alex

 

[MvRojo]

Although I still think Avatar will fill the Best Picture quota for SF/F-related films, a couple of critics for the Sun Media newspaper chain in Canada seem to think it stands a good chance of making the top 10:

http://www.calgarysun.com/entertainment/movies/2010/01/29/12664646.html

Unfortunately, I do get the feeling that if the Academy doesn't give Avatar best picture they'll probably make up for it by giving it most of the other awards for SFX, director, ect.

Right now the only nomination I can be pretty confident in is Visual Effects and Score -- and even then, the fact the original Alexander Courage theme is used, that might knock it out of the race. Cinematography and Art Direction are other possibilities -- if the lens flares aren't an issue and as long as the voters don't see the set design as being just an updating of what's gone before.

I have to admit I'm puzzled that so many sites are predicting a Best Picture nomination for District 9. I thought that film kind of came and went and the impression I got from friends who saw it and reviews I read was it was basically just a variation on V (I certainly had no interest in seeing it). I definitely don't see it getting a BP nomination if Avatar and Trek get nods because, as I say, we'll be lucky to get one SF/F film in there, let alone 3.

Alex

The reason District 9 is a contender is that it has been nominated by other awards for Best Picture, Best Director and Best Screenplay. In rankings for the sci-fi films in contention, it's usually ahead of Star Trek.

Of the categories you mentioned, Visual Effects is the only one Trek really has any chance of getting a nomination. And whether or not Avatar wins Best Picture, it will sweep the technical awards.

 

[ichab]

Knowing the oscars I'd be surprised if it got any. We're talking about the same entitiy that thought Annie Hall was a better picture than Star Wars. The industry has had an historical bias against Science Fiction and recently it's had one against popular movies. So that is two strikes against Star Trek 2009 right there.

I will say that as much as I enjoyed the movie, it does not deserve Best Picture on the basis that it is a reboot.