Let's discuss the phenomenon that will have the biggest impact on human existance in our lifetime: peak oil. The moment when half the world's reserves of oil have been consumed and oil production is no longer increasing but stagnates, and soon thereafter will decline by at least 1-2 percent per year.
Most experts predict that peak oil will occur sometime between 2015 and 2025. In this scenario, oil production could be reduced by 30% until the year 2035, and more then halfed by the year 2050. This scenario, however, doesn't include increased oil demand from china and india and other growing third world countries. Nor does it include a world population expansion of 30-40% by 2050. So in reality, the oil available to each human, then, will be much, much smaller than what it is today. This gap between supply and demand will also drive up prices considerably. 150 dollars/barrel of yesteryear may be peanuts in the year 2025. And as soon as the economy recovers, we'll start seeing higher and higher oil prices, as was the case in the past 10-15 years. Oil is now already well over 70$/barrel, and climbing. And though there's really no way of telling oil prices in the short term, with uncertain variables like OPEC production cuts/increases, temporary reduction in oil consumtion because of the economic crisis, and thereafter increased consumtion as the economy hopefully recovers in the next 2-3 years. But the fact remains, that in the long run, oil prices has only one way to go and that's up. And this is very important, since oil has been the cheapest and most available fuel of the modern era. In fact, our modern industrial society based around cheap available hydrocarbon fuels in great quantities, just wouldn't have been possible without the discovery and exploitation of liquefied fossils in the form of crude oil. One could even say that oil has (up to this point) been the very foundation of modern civilisation, because of its high energy output compared to the low energy need for its extraction. This will however change, as the oil available after peak oil will be increasingly harder to get and will require more and more energy for its extraction and refining.
So, with all this in mind, what impact will the event of peak oil have on humanity? How will it affect the modern way of living and the way industrial society is organised?
And also, what can we do to prepare ourselves for this inevitable outcome, and what efforts can we take today to reduce the negative effects that peak oil will ultimately have on our society?
Most experts predict that peak oil will occur sometime between 2015 and 2025. In this scenario, oil production could be reduced by 30% until the year 2035, and more then halfed by the year 2050. This scenario, however, doesn't include increased oil demand from china and india and other growing third world countries. Nor does it include a world population expansion of 30-40% by 2050. So in reality, the oil available to each human, then, will be much, much smaller than what it is today. This gap between supply and demand will also drive up prices considerably. 150 dollars/barrel of yesteryear may be peanuts in the year 2025. And as soon as the economy recovers, we'll start seeing higher and higher oil prices, as was the case in the past 10-15 years. Oil is now already well over 70$/barrel, and climbing. And though there's really no way of telling oil prices in the short term, with uncertain variables like OPEC production cuts/increases, temporary reduction in oil consumtion because of the economic crisis, and thereafter increased consumtion as the economy hopefully recovers in the next 2-3 years. But the fact remains, that in the long run, oil prices has only one way to go and that's up. And this is very important, since oil has been the cheapest and most available fuel of the modern era. In fact, our modern industrial society based around cheap available hydrocarbon fuels in great quantities, just wouldn't have been possible without the discovery and exploitation of liquefied fossils in the form of crude oil. One could even say that oil has (up to this point) been the very foundation of modern civilisation, because of its high energy output compared to the low energy need for its extraction. This will however change, as the oil available after peak oil will be increasingly harder to get and will require more and more energy for its extraction and refining.
So, with all this in mind, what impact will the event of peak oil have on humanity? How will it affect the modern way of living and the way industrial society is organised?
And also, what can we do to prepare ourselves for this inevitable outcome, and what efforts can we take today to reduce the negative effects that peak oil will ultimately have on our society?
