$$$ now $$$ later

[Balthier the Great]

HSX has Trek XI at $157 million. I think that's a pretty fair estimate.

Something like Trek is going to need a few weeks to catch up -- simply because it has some negative baggage in the minds of the genral public. Some were burned by Nemisis, some were teased in Jr. High for liking Trek. All kinds of stuff like that. People are going to be skeptical of Trek XI because it's TREK.

And since it's being released near a Harry Potter, an X-men, Angels and Demons, and other summer blockbusters, it isn't going to have a lot of time to counter the skepticism before the release of other bigger budget movies.

In short I think they should have found another window where Trek could stand on its own for a bit before competeing. As it stands now, it can't clear $200 million US. And as for world wide -- Trek is American, I don't see a huge desire for Trek from people in Japan or Korea just like I wouldn't expect Cowboy Beebop to be a summer blockbuster here.

 

[mswood]

If it managed that number in the US that would be nice. Thats nearly 4 times the results of NEmesis (even with inflation its over 3 times better). Its in fact better then any Trek film (based on inflation) since Voyage Home.

That is encouraging. I know I have been pleasantly surprised by the non trek fan that I have made watch the trailer. If that can translate into casual movie goers then thats good (and that number above would certainly mean a majority of people who don't consider themselves Trek fans).

Another big piece of the puzzle is overseas. While studios get a smaller percentage of the overseas gross (compared to the US), it is a huge, huge market. and one that Trek has done out and out awful to just poor at.

If the casting, the marketing can get over the preconceived image of what Trek is, then it has a real chance.

This will also be the first time Trek has been released at the same time World Wide, instead of a staggered release after its North America release. Meaning pirating will have a much smaller impact. That in and off itself should help its overseas gross. IT was very smart of them to preview so much to several foreign reviewers, and I will be curious to see how it plays.

Take The Day the Earth Stood Still, its overseas business is far, far stronger then its US. Hopefully it can make 2/3 or better of its US gross.

 

[Captain Robert April]

The general rule of thumb is that a movie has to make at least twice its budget in order to actually turn a profit.

$157 million box office for a movie with a $150 million budget is an unqualified flop. This sucker is gonna have to cross the $300 million mark before it's considered successful, and that is not gonna happen, at least not at the box office.

That being said, I don't think this thing cratering will be the end of Star Trek. The brand is too big and too profitable.

They'll just bring in another director and producer, and in a paraphrasing of the Paramount exec who was questioning Harve Bennett for ST II, they'll ask this prospective savior, "Can you make it for less than fucking $150 million?"

And if he's smart, he'll answer the same way Harve did: "For that much, I can make you ten movies!"

 

[RobertScorpio]

The general rule of thumb is that a movie has to make at least twice its budget in order to actually turn a profit.

$157 million box office for a movie with a $150 million budget is an unqualified flop. This sucker is gonna have to cross the $300 million mark before it's considered successful, and that is not gonna happen, at least not at the box office.

That being said, I don't think this thing cratering will be the end of Star Trek. The brand is too big and too profitable.

They'll just bring in another director and producer, and in a paraphrasing of the Paramount exec who was questioning Harve Bennett for ST II, they'll ask this prospective savior, "Can you make it for less than fucking $150 million?"

And if he's smart, he'll answer the same way Harve did: "For that much, I can make you ten movies!"

Yep...I agree..anything south of 300 MIL will be considered a flop...and in that crowded field, I think they should have got it out this winter...oh, and by the way.TMP and VOYAGE HOME came out in...the winter..as did First Contact...ummm...hello????

Rob

Rob

 

[Psion]

I'm sure it will make $0100 000.00

Just let it go, man! Put your efforts into something really important ... like this nonsense about the Enterprise being built on the ground!

 

[datas_cat_spot]

HSX has Trek XI at $157 million. I think that's a pretty fair estimate.

Something like Trek is going to need a few weeks to catch up -- simply because it has some negative baggage in the minds of the genral public. Some were burned by Nemisis, some were teased in Jr. High for liking Trek. All kinds of stuff like that. People are going to be skeptical of Trek XI because it's TREK.

Luckily, it isn't difficult to spin Trek as being "cool" as long as it appears that way. And this one does so far, hence the buzz among non Trek fans. Nemesis really isn't an issue since nobody saw it. The average movie goer couldn't tell you what the last Trek movie even was. That actually plays to Paramount's advantage giving this movie a "brand new" feel.

And since it's being released near a Harry Potter, an X-men, Angels and Demons, and other summer blockbusters, it isn't going to have a lot of time to counter the skepticism before the release of other bigger budget movies.

Forget about HP, it's much later. A&D isn't an issue either, at least domestically. 'Code underperformed in the U.S. and A&D is likely to do worse specifically because of having more competition than the last. Wolverine has zero buzz right now, even with the trailer out. It has massive ground to make up. Fox has lost much credibility in the eyes of more hardcore fans. Terminator is more of a threat than any of those movies.

In short I think they should have found another window where Trek could stand on its own for a bit before competeing. As it stands now, it can't clear $200 million US. And as for world wide -- Trek is American, I don't see a huge desire for Trek from people in Japan or Korea just like I wouldn't expect Cowboy Beebop to be a summer blockbuster here.

Huh? Trek doesn't have appeal overseas?

 

[DeafPoet]

I'm sure it will make $0100 000.00

That figure's insulting on a few levels I like it.

 

[The Wormhole]

I'm sure it will make $0100 000.00

Just let it go, man! Put your efforts into something really important ... like this nonsense about the Enterprise being built on the ground!

But every pure-bred Trek fan knows the Enterprise being built on the ground is extremely wrong and a violation of Continuity and Canon. Sadly, not as many seem to know/care about the Zero, so I must educate my brethren. Reject the Zero, my brothers!

 

[RobertScorpio]

I'm sure it will make $0100 000.00

Just let it go, man! Put your efforts into something really important ... like this nonsense about the Enterprise being built on the ground!

But every pure-bred Trek fan knows the Enterprise being built on the ground is extremely wrong and a violation of Continuity and Canon. Sadly, not as many seem to know/care about the Zero, so I must educate my brethren. Reject the Zero, my brothers!

Violating canon is my favorite hobby

Rob

 

[The Wormhole]

Just let it go, man! Put your efforts into something really important ... like this nonsense about the Enterprise being built on the ground!

But every pure-bred Trek fan knows the Enterprise being built on the ground is extremely wrong and a violation of Continuity and Canon. Sadly, not as many seem to know/care about the Zero, so I must educate my brethren. Reject the Zero, my brothers!

Violating canon is my favorite hobby

Rob

At least you're honest about. There are some people who violate canon, and then claim it's only an alternate timeline.

 

[Balthier the Great]

HSX has Trek XI at $157 million. I think that's a pretty fair estimate.

Something like Trek is going to need a few weeks to catch up -- simply because it has some negative baggage in the minds of the genral public. Some were burned by Nemisis, some were teased in Jr. High for liking Trek. All kinds of stuff like that. People are going to be skeptical of Trek XI because it's TREK.

Luckily, it isn't difficult to spin Trek as being "cool" as long as it appears that way. And this one does so far, hence the buzz among non Trek fans. Nemesis really isn't an issue since nobody saw it. The average movie goer couldn't tell you what the last Trek movie even was. That actually plays to Paramount's advantage giving this movie a "brand new" feel.

I didn't say it was impossible, what I said was that it would need a head start. I think most movies that clear $300 mil have been number one the first weekend. Because of the negative history, that will be somewhat difficult to do that with stiff competition the first week. With a fair headstart, $300 mil is a good possibility. Without it, you better hope that the overseas market loves Trek. I don't know what the overseas market likes -- I'm basing my guess on the number of forgein movies that got big in the US, which isn't very large. The biggest recent one might be "Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon".

 

[datas_cat_spot]

HSX has Trek XI at $157 million. I think that's a pretty fair estimate.

Something like Trek is going to need a few weeks to catch up -- simply because it has some negative baggage in the minds of the genral public. Some were burned by Nemisis, some were teased in Jr. High for liking Trek. All kinds of stuff like that. People are going to be skeptical of Trek XI because it's TREK.

Luckily, it isn't difficult to spin Trek as being "cool" as long as it appears that way. And this one does so far, hence the buzz among non Trek fans. Nemesis really isn't an issue since nobody saw it. The average movie goer couldn't tell you what the last Trek movie even was. That actually plays to Paramount's advantage giving this movie a "brand new" feel.

I didn't say it was impossible, what I said was that it would need a head start. I think most movies that clear $300 mil have been number one the first weekend. Because of the negative history, that will be somewhat difficult to do that with stiff competition the first week. With a fair headstart, $300 mil is a good possibility. Without it, you better hope that the overseas market loves Trek. I don't know what the overseas market likes -- I'm basing my guess on the number of forgein movies that got big in the US, which isn't very large. The biggest recent one might be "Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon".

And by head start you just mean a good number one opening weekend? I agree with that completely. If it can't obtain even a single weekend at the top, it will be unlikely to break 300 mil. Trek is pretty tough to predict overseas. On one hand, Trek movies usually make half overseas as it does domestically... on the other, all but like 3 of the last 30 or so American scifi movies have made at least the same overseas as they have domestically, if not more. Nemesis is actually one of those few anomalies that did worse overseas (yikes). But... this new Trek has about a 300% in budget from an average of the previous 10. Bigger movies actually do make bigger money so to speak. That's why it's been pushed back to May. This whole plan hinges on the concept of Trek being completely rebooted for the masses. That means giving it a proper tent pole budget, getting it out of the traditional Trek winter release, and marketing it to non fans primarily. Only god knows whether it will pan out or not. You can't say Paramount isn't giving it their all though ha ha.

 

[Captain Robert April]

With that big a budget, they don't have any choice. It has to be the biggest hit they've had since Titanic or the viability of the studio is in some doubt.

 

[Balthier the Great]

Luckily, it isn't difficult to spin Trek as being "cool" as long as it appears that way. And this one does so far, hence the buzz among non Trek fans. Nemesis really isn't an issue since nobody saw it. The average movie goer couldn't tell you what the last Trek movie even was. That actually plays to Paramount's advantage giving this movie a "brand new" feel.

I didn't say it was impossible, what I said was that it would need a head start. I think most movies that clear $300 mil have been number one the first weekend. Because of the negative history, that will be somewhat difficult to do that with stiff competition the first week. With a fair headstart, $300 mil is a good possibility. Without it, you better hope that the overseas market loves Trek. I don't know what the overseas market likes -- I'm basing my guess on the number of forgein movies that got big in the US, which isn't very large. The biggest recent one might be "Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon".

And by head start you just mean a good number one opening weekend? I agree with that completely. If it can't obtain even a single weekend at the top, it will be unlikely to break 300 mil. Trek is pretty tough to predict overseas. On one hand, Trek movies usually make half overseas as it does domestically... on the other, all but like 3 of the last 30 or so American scifi movies have made at least the same overseas as they have domestically, if not more. Nemesis is actually one of those few anomalies that did worse overseas (yikes). But... this new Trek has about a 300% in budget from an average of the previous 10. Bigger movies actually do make bigger money so to speak. That's why it's been pushed back to May. This whole plan hinges on the concept of Trek being completely rebooted for the masses. That means giving it a proper tent pole budget, getting it out of the traditional Trek winter release, and marketing it to non fans primarily. Only god knows whether it will pan out or not. You can't say Paramount isn't giving it their all though ha ha.

By head start I mean a week or two where it's the big "action flick" before other similar movies come out. If it's realeased the same week as something else similar, I don't think it will make #1. And most definately NOT clear $300 mil. i think it does have the potential to be that big, should the audience discover it in time. But a disappointing week one and a big week for a competitor and I think the only people who will care will be trekkies, who frankly have already made up thier minds. Besides movies that don't do well the first week tend to disappear rather quickly.

 

[Falcor5]

With that big a budget, they don't have any choice. It has to be the biggest hit they've had since Titanic or the viability of the studio is in some doubt.

Maybe they should have cast Leonardo Dicaprio as Kirk to try and regain that Titanic magic.

 

[datas_cat_spot]

With that big a budget, they don't have any choice. It has to be the biggest hit they've had since Titanic or the viability of the studio is in some doubt.

Uh, no. Paramount has like five huge movies this summer, Trek only being the 3rd largest. It would suck for them if Trek bombed, obviously, but it would hardly be the end of Paramount dun dun dunnnn!

I didn't say it was impossible, what I said was that it would need a head start. I think most movies that clear $300 mil have been number one the first weekend. Because of the negative history, that will be somewhat difficult to do that with stiff competition the first week. With a fair headstart, $300 mil is a good possibility. Without it, you better hope that the overseas market loves Trek. I don't know what the overseas market likes -- I'm basing my guess on the number of forgein movies that got big in the US, which isn't very large. The biggest recent one might be "Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon".

And by head start you just mean a good number one opening weekend? I agree with that completely. If it can't obtain even a single weekend at the top, it will be unlikely to break 300 mil. Trek is pretty tough to predict overseas. On one hand, Trek movies usually make half overseas as it does domestically... on the other, all but like 3 of the last 30 or so American scifi movies have made at least the same overseas as they have domestically, if not more. Nemesis is actually one of those few anomalies that did worse overseas (yikes). But... this new Trek has about a 300% in budget from an average of the previous 10. Bigger movies actually do make bigger money so to speak. That's why it's been pushed back to May. This whole plan hinges on the concept of Trek being completely rebooted for the masses. That means giving it a proper tent pole budget, getting it out of the traditional Trek winter release, and marketing it to non fans primarily. Only god knows whether it will pan out or not. You can't say Paramount isn't giving it their all though ha ha.

By head start I mean a week or two where it's the big "action flick" before other similar movies come out. If it's realeased the same week as something else similar, I don't think it will make #1. And most definately NOT clear $300 mil. i think it does have the potential to be that big, should the audience discover it in time. But a disappointing week one and a big week for a competitor and I think the only people who will care will be trekkies, who frankly have already made up thier minds. Besides movies that don't do well the first week tend to disappear rather quickly.

Nothing else comes out the same week, it is only Wolverine in it's second week. The following week is A&D with Terminator the week after. It won't carry number one through Terminator. The best it can do will be two weeks at number one. That's pretty much the case for a every movie this summer though. If they continue to handle the marketing as well as they have, Wolverine will be overlooked. I don't think it's a question of whether people are aware of the movie. They'll probably be tired of hearing about it if anything else. It's only a question of whether they connect with it.

 

[Therin of Andor]

Nemesis is actually one of those few anomalies that did worse overseas (yikes) .

Well, it didn't get a simultaneous worldwide release and, when a film flops domestically, it's a hard sell when it opens weeks or months later internationally.

In Australia, "Nemesis" opened a whole week later than the USA, and Aussies heard a week of moaning and bitching and snickering coming out of the US. Despite this, NEM actually won the top opening weekend spot Down Under, but then it wasn't up against the mighty "Maid in Manhattan" either.

JJ's ST will be the first ST movie to get a simultaneous release in many countries which, thanks to the good ol' international date line, means... New Zealand and Australia see it first!

If it's released the same week as something else similar, I don't think it will make #1 .

So far the only ST movie to not have the #1 weekend opening slot in the US is "Nemesis". I wouldn't call J-Lo's movie "similar".

I don't see there's any chance of a repeat performance of that, either way. JJ's ST will be a success.

 

[Flake]

People are forgetting the worldwide DVD release, that will make some of the money back as well. I'd say Paramount are aiming for $180 million and secretly hoping for $250 million +

Worldwide BO should be considerabley better simply because people around the world go to see 'event' movies of which Star Trek is one of them, the ones before that where only half-heartedly released worldwide, UK and Germany being the exceptions, they will be pushing this one hard.

 

[The Wormhole]

Worldwide BO

[Insert Peter Griffin style laughter]

 

[Klingon Empire]

No, they did not. Although the compition is going to be tough in summer with Transformers 2: Revenge of the fallen coming out pretty soon after.