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Moviehole reports Trek budget at 150-160 million...

They're banking on this feeding off the holiday season and attracting more than Trek fans but it's not gonna happen. People with casual interest are going to see it, but not enough to propel the film to numbers Paramount is expecting. When will they get it in their heads that Trek ISN'T a mass appeal property anymore? The last time it was such was....when? 20 years ago?

I'll be generous and predict that it will get $80-$100m domestic. MAYBE. Then MAYBE $50m-$70m international. Then they'll be praying that the DVD will sell like gangbusters.

The general public ISN'T going to flock to this just because JJ Abrams is involved. If that's what Paramount thinks, they're idiots.
 
sttngfan1701d said:
This can't be right. $150m? Are they crazy? No Trek movie has made that sort of money since The Voyage Home. Didn't FC fall just short of $100m in '96? *sigh*
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You're not adjusting for inflation. Average ticket prices in 1986 (The Voyage Home's year of release) were $3.71 according to boxofficemojo.com. With tickets now averaging $6.58, that means that Star Trek IV's domestic gross of $109 million would translate to $193 million in today's dollars--a respectable tally, if not spectacular. With J.J. at the helm and the weight of the Paramount hype machine in full force, I don't think it's unreasonable to expect Star Trek to do at least that well. Frankly, if they play their cards right it could wind up being a $250-300 million hit.
 
sttngfan1701d said:
They're banking on this feeding off the holiday season and attracting more than Trek fans but it's not gonna happen. People with casual interest are going to see it, but not enough to propel the film to numbers Paramount is expecting. When will they get it in their heads that Trek ISN'T a mass appeal property anymore? The last time it was such was....when? 20 years ago?

I'll be generous and predict that it will get $80-$100m domestic. MAYBE. Then MAYBE $50m-$70m international. Then they'll be praying that the DVD will sell like gangbusters.

The general public ISN'T going to flock to this just because JJ Abrams is involved. If that's what Paramount thinks, they're idiots.
Click to expand...
Well, fortunately Paramount doesn't have a whining pessimist like you on their payroll. :thumbsup:
 
All they got to do is hip it up with the "hot cha!" and the "hey now!" and the "23 skiddoo!" and these crazy kids will eat it up like its Mammy Beaulah's hotcakes!

Now I'm off to the haberdashery and the apothecary, be back in a trice!
 
People use 'suck' a bit too quick. Sure it(Spidey 3) could've been better but it was still better than so much that gets made and released.


This budget of "somewhere between $120-150M" is crazy. What type of stunt are they going to pull to get the average movie goer interested in Trek?

While Sci-fi in general has gained some modicum of respect in the last few years we are still talking about the much stigmitized image of a "Trek fan". What casual movie goer is up for that?

I'm concerned that this could blow up hard if fan support is not behind it like, as a whole, we weren't for Nemesis and S4 ENT.
We could end up with a big glitzy finish that sees Trek go the way of the original Battlestar Galactica. It won't resurface on TV or film for 15-20 years.
 
I think it's great that it's getting such a large budget, it shows Paramount has a lot of faith in the relaunch of the film series. If they can put the money to good use and keep the corporate execs and market research out of the production we might have a good movie to watch. :)
 
Professor Moriarty said:
sttngfan1701d said:
This can't be right. $150m? Are they crazy? No Trek movie has made that sort of money since The Voyage Home. Didn't FC fall just short of $100m in '96? *sigh*
Click to expand...
You're not adjusting for inflation. Average ticket prices in 1986 (The Voyage Home's year of release) were $3.71 according to boxofficemojo.com. With tickets now averaging $6.58, that means that Star Trek IV's domestic gross of $109 million would translate to $193 million in today's dollars--a respectable tally, if not spectacular. With J.J. at the helm and the weight of the Paramount hype machine in full force, I don't think it's unreasonable to expect Star Trek to do at least that well. Frankly, if they play their cards right it could wind up being a $250-300 million hit.
Click to expand...

Everything you said in that post, I was mindful of when I wrote mine. I know we have to adjust to inflation. I know that the sales for ST IV were around $200m in today's money (actually I've heard a higher number, but still...). Don't spew statistics at me. But since you did, let me clarify my point: in today's terms, a movie has to make close to double its budget to be a "hit." Star Trek 4 made around $200m in today's money. Trek XI has to make at least $50-$100m MORE than that, the figure you predicted, for Paramount to make their money back. Trends have shown that will be.....difficult.

Gone are the days when Trek on TV made ratings that rivaled Monday Night Football or American Idol (i.e. TNG at its height or DS9's premiere). Even adjusted for inflation, the Trek films didn't make much money from 1989-2002. Trek just ISN'T big anymore. This new movie WILL make more than Nemesis because curiosity will propel viewers to see it, but any way you slice it, it won't be big. Call me a pessimist if you want but I think I'm being a realist. Paramount is going to take a hit here.
 
Let them pull out all the stops and make a wonderful, extravagant and hopefully really good movie.

Better one movie done right that bombs than a dozen timid, tidy Trek movies that make a few bucks for Paramount.
 
sttngfan1701d said:
Professor Moriarty said:
sttngfan1701d said:
This can't be right. $150m? Are they crazy? No Trek movie has made that sort of money since The Voyage Home. Didn't FC fall just short of $100m in '96? *sigh*
Click to expand...
You're not adjusting for inflation. Average ticket prices in 1986 (The Voyage Home's year of release) were $3.71 according to boxofficemojo.com. With tickets now averaging $6.58, that means that Star Trek IV's domestic gross of $109 million would translate to $193 million in today's dollars--a respectable tally, if not spectacular. With J.J. at the helm and the weight of the Paramount hype machine in full force, I don't think it's unreasonable to expect Star Trek to do at least that well. Frankly, if they play their cards right it could wind up being a $250-300 million hit.
Click to expand...

Everything you said in that post, I was mindful of when I wrote mine. I know we have to adjust to inflation. I know that the sales for ST IV were around $200m in today's money (actually I've heard a higher number, but still...). Don't spew statistics at me. But since you did, let me clarify my point: in today's terms, a movie has to make close to double its budget to be a "hit." Star Trek 4 made around $200m in today's money. Trek XI has to make at least $50-$100m MORE than that, the figure you predicted, for Paramount to make their money back. Trends have shown that will be.....difficult.

Gone are the days when Trek on TV made ratings that rivaled Monday Night Football or American Idol (i.e. TNG at its height or DS9's premiere). Even adjusted for inflation, the Trek films didn't make much money from 1989-2002. Trek just ISN'T big anymore. This new movie WILL make more than Nemesis because curiosity will propel viewers to see it, but any way you slice it, it won't be big. Call me a pessimist if you want but I think I'm being a realist. Paramount is going to take a hit here.
Click to expand...

ST's popularity has fluctuated at times, what makes you think it will remain static at a low level? But ST doesn't have to be popular for the movie to succeed because its an "event" movie, one where poeple will go see it just to see what its all about regardless of past Treks.

It also amazes me to see people on this thread calling a $193 million gross mediocre. :lol:

RAMA
 
Well, presuming the budget is around $ 135-140 million, the film would need to make about $ 325-335 million worldwide to be considered a bona fide hit under the current business model. Even adjusted for inflation that's substantially more than any Trek sequel has made before (TMP's adjusted gross is higher, though).

I was expecting a big budget, but I thought it would be around $ 100 mil. So they're certainly rolling the dice big time here. Gotta give them credit for having the balls to do it. Either it'll pay off and Star Trek will be born anew as a major feature film franchise or Trek will go out with a bang. Even if it doesn't work out we'll at least have one truly epic film Star Trek film to enjoy before the franchise's lights are switched off.
 
150 Million is about 70 million pound which is about how much money Real Madrid spent this summer buying players and that is not a good thing.
 
RAMA said:
sttngfan1701d said:
Professor Moriarty said:
sttngfan1701d said:
This can't be right. $150m? Are they crazy? No Trek movie has made that sort of money since The Voyage Home. Didn't FC fall just short of $100m in '96? *sigh*
Click to expand...
You're not adjusting for inflation. Average ticket prices in 1986 (The Voyage Home's year of release) were $3.71 according to boxofficemojo.com. With tickets now averaging $6.58, that means that Star Trek IV's domestic gross of $109 million would translate to $193 million in today's dollars--a respectable tally, if not spectacular. With J.J. at the helm and the weight of the Paramount hype machine in full force, I don't think it's unreasonable to expect Star Trek to do at least that well. Frankly, if they play their cards right it could wind up being a $250-300 million hit.
Click to expand...

Everything you said in that post, I was mindful of when I wrote mine. I know we have to adjust to inflation. I know that the sales for ST IV were around $200m in today's money (actually I've heard a higher number, but still...). Don't spew statistics at me. But since you did, let me clarify my point: in today's terms, a movie has to make close to double its budget to be a "hit." Star Trek 4 made around $200m in today's money. Trek XI has to make at least $50-$100m MORE than that, the figure you predicted, for Paramount to make their money back. Trends have shown that will be.....difficult.

Gone are the days when Trek on TV made ratings that rivaled Monday Night Football or American Idol (i.e. TNG at its height or DS9's premiere). Even adjusted for inflation, the Trek films didn't make much money from 1989-2002. Trek just ISN'T big anymore. This new movie WILL make more than Nemesis because curiosity will propel viewers to see it, but any way you slice it, it won't be big. Call me a pessimist if you want but I think I'm being a realist. Paramount is going to take a hit here.
Click to expand...

ST's popularity has fluctuated at times, what makes you think it will remain static at a low level? But ST doesn't have to be popular for the movie to succeed because its an "event" movie, one where poeple will go see it just to see what its all about regardless of past Treks.

It also amazes me to see people on this thread calling a $193 million gross mediocre. :lol:

RAMA
Click to expand...

Not to mention the enormous amount of money studios generate in the international markets and via DVD sales and products. DVD sales figure into revenues more and more each year; the VHS days pale in comparison.

If this movie does X-Men/Transformers level business it will make money. With the right cast, script, amount of spectacle, and marketing people will go see it. Does Trek have a "geeky" reputation? Sure, but so does Star Wars and men who run around in spandex shooting at one another. Geeky is fine as long as it's also cool. Trek XI must be Geek Chic. :cool:

:lol:
 
Out Of My Vulcan Mind said:
Gotta give them credit for having the balls to do it. Either it'll pay off and Star Trek will be born anew as a major feature film franchise or Trek will go out with a bang. Even if it doesn't work out we'll at least have one truly epic film Star Trek film to enjoy before the franchise's lights are switched off.
Click to expand...
Thank you--you've expressed my sentiments exactly! :thumbsup: The fact that Paramount is willing to spend this much money on a franchise that's as old as I am says a lot about their confidence in J.J. Abrams reinvigorating Trek for a whole new audience. This is GOOD news, people! At the very worst, we'll have an epic scale Star Trek to savor and enjoy... but if all the stars are in alignment, we could have a whole new Star Trek universe to play in for years to come. My money's on the latter, but I'm just happy Paramount is willing to throw its weight behind the old girl.
 
I think it says how desperate they are to keep the ailing franchise going. Of course, the fun-filled world of dating has shown many a man that the difference between desperation and balls is only made clear in retrospect and hinges entriely on success. :rommie:
 
Well, if this thing turns out to be a turd, at least it will be a very bright, shinny, epic turd.

I hope it doesn't go the turd route... I hope this film kickstarts the franchise again, for if it bombs, Trek will receive the final nail for it's cauffin; a really big expensive...shinny nail.
 
The big budget sounds great to me. Transformers had 150 mil budget and that movie looked spectacular, lets hope JJ knows how to put the money on the screen like Michael Bay does.

As for the winter release, I think that could hurt the movie. Most people during the holidays are into hanging out at home with the family, not schleping out to the theaters in (NY weather) many inches of snow and hovering around freezing. It's not the type of thing that people who are not more than fans would go for I think. Even if I love the movie I might not see it more than once in the theater because I would have to deal with the weather. In the winter I pretty much go to work and hang out at my buds houses or the bar.
 
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