Money where your mouth is (Hit or flop)

[Aragorn]

If any poll confirms your own personal opinion, that automatically makes it authentic and valid and pure.

 

[Basil]

To be fair, though, bear in mind that Casino Royale -- and more specifically Daniel Craig -- was experiencing terrible reactions from many, many people speculating about its future months before the film made it to theaters. I was one of the relative few at the time who liberally posted support for Craig and the film on a favorite Bond Web site. My gut and brain both told me that returning the Bond series to its "more serious" roots would make the film a hit -- and that the charismatic, Connery-esque Craig would be a better Bond than anyone with the exception of Connery.

Though my gut and brain are telling me that taking Trek away from its root properties and making it just another high-budget shoot-em-up aimed at teens is going to result in less success than Paramount is hoping for, it's possible that all of us naysayers will be proven as wrong as those who criticized the Bond film producers. I don't believe so, but it's possible.

 

[TK421]

Hit.

Megahit status seems to rely on a few other factors such as hype, timing, competition, ad budget, and zeitgeist kind of stuff.

All of which is coming into motion already.

No doubt. Abrams and his team are pros at this.

But you can't foresee events overtaking the film. Over saturation, for example. Mega hit is not a sure thing.

 

[darkwing_duck1]

If Empire magazine wasn't conducting a polling of a representative sample of the population, I would not worry about it.

If it is mostly hardcore science-fiction fans from a particular region of the world that are into scif-fi publications like Empire were polled for this polling, so of course you are going to get a skewed result like that for a polling like this from fandom (the nerds).

Don't worry about it.

It was not a representative sampling of different age groups and demographics.

Empire magazine represents a more "mainstream" sampling than TrekBBS does of the likely audience for this film, and 38% loath the very idea of it. That doesn't speak well for it's ability to bring in the "unconverted", and with the "hardcore" Trek fans already pissed, where is this huge audience to come from?

And to answer in general all the posters talking about the "buzz" being so great...remember Serenity...

YOU DO realize there are only about 12 Firefly fans on the whole planet right?

RAMA

There were more than enough of us to make the DVDs best sellers AND to get Universal to take a chance on making a movie based on the series. A very very GOOD movie, I might add, that deserved a larger audience than it got.

Based on what has been revealed so far, Trek XI looks like a dumbed down, "hipped up" and "sexed up" alternate take on Trek. Will that be enough to get "mainstream" buts in the seats? It isn't looking likely, based on current data.

 

[M'Sharak]

Originally Posted by The Wormhole
Oh I'm pretty sure the movie will make money. The unwashed masses wh have never seen Trek in their sad pedantic lives will probably storm the theatres to see a over-marketed movie with pretty splosions in the commercials. But will it be a good movie? I highly doubt it.

I never saw TOS,TNG,DS9,VOY or any other STAR TREK movie, never been in a forum like this,or fandom for that matter, this movie got me interesed in Star Trek, in who Kirk or Spock is, and i assure you that i'm not a sad person. And yeah i like a movie with explosions and lots of action.From my point of view i think you are taking yourself to seriously,and your a jerk too

Whatever, please don't call people jerks -- we've got a rule about stuff like that.

Welcome to our world. Unfortunately we have some of the Haters Club who love to call names.
I've been a Star Trek fan since the 1970s, but didn't know about this forum until I read an article about a new Star Trek movie.

And I think we've heard enough about the "Hater's Club", too, if you don't mind. It's not improved by repetition any more than certain other things are.

 

[Bad Bishop]

With luck, $200 million in the U.S.

 

[Captain X]

It'll probably rake in a bit more than it makes, but not much more - they're probably going to regret spending so much on it for such a niche project.

 

[JoeZhang]

Empire magazine represents a more "mainstream" sampling than TrekBBS does of the likely audience for this film, and 38% loath the very idea of it. That doesn't speak well for it's ability to bring in the "unconverted", and with the "hardcore" Trek fans already pissed, where is this huge audience to come from?

And to answer in general all the posters talking about the "buzz" being so great...remember Serenity...

YOU DO realize there are only about 12 Firefly fans on the whole planet right?

RAMA

There were more than enough of us to make the DVDs best sellers AND to get Universal to take a chance on making a movie based on the series. A very very GOOD movie, I might add, that deserved a larger audience than it got.

Based on what has been revealed so far, Trek XI looks like a dumbed down, "hipped up" and "sexed up" alternate take on Trek. Will that be enough to get "mainstream" buts in the seats? It isn't looking likely, based on current data.

Serenity was a middle budget b-movie. it's not the same thing. I think the activities of the brown tongues (why are they called that? because they lick JW's ass?) put a lot of people off - you couldn't move on a Sci-fi board with them spamming theit crappy movie.

 

[SalvorHardin]

I think I'll enjoy this movie very much.
I like many of the things I've seen so far and loved the trailer.

Still,I vote just about breaks even.

I believe the "Trek is uncool and only for nerds with no lives" mentality of the general public is very hard if not impossible to change and the fans alone can not be counted upon to make a movie with such a budget successful.

I hope I'm wrong and the movie is a hit though.

 

[DeafPoet]

I'll admit, the budget on this thing makes me a little nervous from a profitability standpoint.

It'll be a hit I'm guessing but it's not going to be huge. We're probably looking at Superman Returns money with a correspondingly decent showing on home video.

 

[The Mirrorball Man]

I would never have guessed that an old-fashioned theme park ride could be turned into a multi-billion movie franchise named Pirates of the Caribbean, so I don't think it would be wise for me to try and guess how successful Star Trek is going to be.

 

[Stegoman05]

I'll admit, the budget on this thing makes me a little nervous from a profitability standpoint.

Yes i agree. The budget is probably whats going to hurt it.

 

[ST-One]

I'll admit, the budget on this thing makes me a little nervous from a profitability standpoint.

Yes i agree. The budget is probably whats going to hurt it.

IF it tanks, then at least it looked good.

 

[Stegoman05]

I'll admit, the budget on this thing makes me a little nervous from a profitability standpoint.

Yes i agree. The budget is probably whats going to hurt it.

IF it tanks, then at least it looked good.

LOL good point.

 

[Python Trek]

I think it will perform similar to the Bryan Singer superman movie.

It will make a respectable amount of money, but will still be seen as having underperformed, not lived up to expectations or been the revival they were hoping it would be.

I think that's about right.

I say that it will make its budget back and a respectable profit, but because the media will hype it as The Last, Best Hope for The Franchise (TM), it will be seen as a commercial disappointment. It'll prolly go on to do huge business overseas and on DVD, and it may even get a sequel---I've noticed lately that even modest box office performers get sequels these days---but the media will brand it as a letdown...DESPITE what I predict will be decent (not like Iron Man, more like Episode III) reviews from the critics.

In summary, if the film had anything but the word "Trek" after the word "Star" it would prolly be seen has a (semi)megahit, but in the world of movie critics and the world of the average non-Trekkie movie-going public, Trek still equals lame.

I'll say 180 million domestic and 300 million worldwide.

 

[T'Aerwynd]

I went with "hit" just because I think "megahit" happens so rarely. I think this movie is really going to take off, though, and perhaps the sequel will build on its success and be a "megahit."

 

[CaptainDonovin]

As much as I fear that mainstream movie goers will not go just because it's Star Trek I'm thinking it'll do well, I'm thinking $300K. It would be nice for a change to have a Trek movie do that well.

 

[ManOnTheWave]

Hit with a sequel lock. It'll be Iron Man. Early summer feel good hit. People will like it and buy the DVD. I don't think it will be Dark Knight with shows selling out weeks in advance.

 

[M'Sharak]

I would never have guessed that an old-fashioned theme park ride could be turned into a multi-billion movie franchise named Pirates of the Caribbean, so I don't think it would be wise for me to try and guess how successful Star Trek is going to be.

"Old-fashioned"... gah. I remember when they put that ride in.

 

[datas_cat_spot]

I'll admit, the budget on this thing makes me a little nervous from a profitability standpoint.

Yes i agree. The budget is probably whats going to hurt it.

There are like 4 movies - possibly 5 next summer with larger budgets than Trek which is Paramount's 3rd largest alone. All of these movies studios should feel nervous about this summer. I would not expect any of these summer movies to have monumental openings. If Trek is a actually a good movie, it has nothing to worry about.