It's not going to be another Dark Knight, but I'm optimistic that it'll make the studio a decent amount of money.
Money where your mouth is (Hit or flop)
- Thread starter JoeZhang
- Start date
After a lot of thought, I ended up voting "break even" which is kind of a middle of the road, chickenshit approach to take, but I just have a hard time getting a feel for this. Without reading all the replies in this thread, and running the risk of beating a dead horse, I just don't see this movie being a hit because of two things:
First of all, I think there will be a percentage of previously loyal Star Trek fans that just aren't going to see this for all the reasons that have been beat to death in this forum. Not a large percentage, but a sizeable number.
Secondly, and more importantly, I just don't believe the masses, the non-Trekkers if you will, are going to turn out in large numbers for this film. Why? Well because it's a Star Trek film, and it's just not cool to be a Trek fan. That's for nerds like Sheldon.
Now if somehow Abrams really has pulled off a good movie, and it can generate some good word-of-mouth, then I can be all wrong. But if I had to bet on it right at this moment, I'm betting "not a hit."
First of all, I think there will be a percentage of previously loyal Star Trek fans that just aren't going to see this for all the reasons that have been beat to death in this forum. Not a large percentage, but a sizeable number.
Secondly, and more importantly, I just don't believe the masses, the non-Trekkers if you will, are going to turn out in large numbers for this film. Why? Well because it's a Star Trek film, and it's just not cool to be a Trek fan. That's for nerds like Sheldon.
Now if somehow Abrams really has pulled off a good movie, and it can generate some good word-of-mouth, then I can be all wrong. But if I had to bet on it right at this moment, I'm betting "not a hit."
No one outside a very small circle of hardcore-non-fans cares dude. It'll be a huge hit regardless.
Empire magazine's poll suggests otherwise.
I'm coming late to this party, but can someone point out exactly where the Empire poll suggests that non-hardcore fans care about whether or not this film is a "permanent reboot"?
It's a hard call on this film's success. I think it will open well, but not to spectacular superhero type numbers. How it does after that depends on its quality and mainstream appeal, which we really know nothing about.
I think the folks who are calling for it to do "Batman Begins" numbers are probably a bit on the conservative side but more or less right (similar budgets, BTW). What matters most is whether it shows well in the foreign markets; that would effectively separate it from the old Trek Franchise.
Megahit. You wouldn't expect me to vote anything else, now, would ya? 
it's going to get mauled opening weekend by Wolverine which opens the week before.
Fox has a ton of catch up to do right now.
Wolverine isn't going to do this movie a bit of harm. I suppose I'd worry a little about the second week's gross if that film were opening a week after Trek.
As it is, what's that week - "Angels And Demons?" Not a problem.
As it is, what's that week - "Angels And Demons?" Not a problem.
And Harry Potter's opening late summer...
I also don't think Wolverine's 2nd week will do anything to ST's opening weekend.
I do agree word of mouth and appeal to the AVERAGE moviegoing public will be key in its bottom line.
I'm hoping it does one thing similar to the Batman reboot--in that the second movie rakes in far more than the first.
I also don't think Wolverine's 2nd week will do anything to ST's opening weekend.
I do agree word of mouth and appeal to the AVERAGE moviegoing public will be key in its bottom line.
I'm hoping it does one thing similar to the Batman reboot--in that the second movie rakes in far more than the first.
Angels and Demons is the sequel to a film that grossed more money than any Trek film has ever grossed. It was a 200m domestic hit.
The second week also contains Bruno, and Borat grossed more any Star Trek film has ever done.
Yeah dude...NOT A PROBLEM! And 2nd week viewings of Wolverine will be a factor.
There is so much wishful thinking around here. Here are facts.
After it gets hit with Bruno/Angels and Demons it gets utterly destroyed by Terminator and Night at the Museum 2. Its going to be losing theatres hard and fast along with any hype.
Its really cute how optimistic people are against all evidence that shows what is going to happen.
And Batman Begins? It struggled to get to 200 million and the Batman franchise is FAR more accessible to the mainstream audience. Batman is arguely one of the biggest franchies in the world (if not biggest) until Batman and Robin destoryed it. Batman used to always set film records and Begins, the reboot, needed to have massive legs to barely reach 200 million domestic. Star Trek is not going to have those legs. Its not going to have the word of mouth Begins had and its not opening in mid June.
Abrams Trek has to deal with the stale taste of all the TNG stinkers including the colossal bomb of Nemesis.
And JJ Abrams name? Did you know Cloverfield, one of the best hyped movies of all time, failed to even reach 100 million domestically? Mission Impossible, JJ's only feature film directing credit, performed worse than the other Mission Impossibles and killed the franchise. It didn't hit the magic 150 million either. These are simple facts. Abrams is film toxic and giving Abrams a 150 million movie shows how stupid Paramount is.
The movie has flop written all over it if not outright bomb. If the budget is 150 for the movie to break even it probably needs to do 300 million when you factor in advertising, theatre take and that sort of crap. Studios usually recover the money with DVDs and other ways but yikes.
darkwing_duck1
Vice Admiral
^The man may have a point...
ST-One
Vice Admiral
Isn't it intersting that you completely disregard the total sum these films made (worldwide)?
M:I 3 - 397.850.012,00 (with a budget of 150.000.000,00)
Cloverfield - 170.602.318,00 (with a budget of 25.000.000,00)
Massive mega hit.
Angels & Demons - Will do worse than it's predecessor. Code didn't have legs, at least in this country. It opened with 77 million (with basically no competition) and was promptly destroyed the next week by the worst X-Men movie of the series, never to be heard from again. I would not expect Demons to have a better opening since Code was so underwhelming and Demons will actually have to compete with something. So...no.
Bruno - Ha ha ha ha! There are some serious liberties taken with this one. First off; Borat opened in November. Against the crappiest animated film of that year and The Santa Clause 3 followed by Stranger Than Fiction. Are you kidding me? We're talking summer now. For the life of me, I don't know why Bruno wouldn't be released in the fall where it can make money. Oh well, not my problem.
Terminator - Is to be reckoned with. It's still very questionable whether it will be good, much like Trek to be fair. But it does have Christian Bale, and they'll be good marketing-wise. On the other hand, T3 was horrendous and the bloated budget for Salvation will require it to have huge numbers. I don't know if Salvation is separating it's identity enough to be successful after T3's abysmal opening. It's still definitely Trek's biggest threat though.
Night at the Museum - is out of it's league. Sorry. The first one came out for Christmas, not in the middle of a summer death match. It merely needed to survive December and it was smooth sailing with no competition through winter. Again - why Fox wouldn't repeat an obvious winning formula is beyond me. Who cares if the sequel has a bigger budget than the first? That 30 million opening of the first movie in December will weigh heavily on the minds of some at Fox.
Wolverine certainly will be a factor, it's tough to really know since Fox doesn't seem terribly interested in promoting the movie. If they don't get their shit together, it will flop.
I voted "just about breaks even"
The reason I voted this is not because I think its not a hit- I really think this is a hit from a Star Trek perspective and will generate lots of new fans. But those new fans will be the general Sci-Fi fans that would watch movies like this or the Matrix or even gadget movies like Bond just because the trailer was cool.
I think the movie that will really be a hit is Star Trek XII. Because right now, Star Trek XI is, in the words of Dennis Green, "they are who we thought they were". Meaning, its still Star Trek aka dorks and losers only like it. Fans of the movie who are too cool will be joking that there will be people dressed up in costume to watch the movie and these are the fans that live in the mother's basement, etc etc. I can picture the Leno/Letterman jokes already.
But what will happen is that the movie will get good reviews from the critics, and then word of mouth will push the movie to make $200M or just enough to break even (cost about $150M right?). People will be at theatres and the dialogue will be:
A: "hey you wanna watch that new Star Trek movie?"
B: "ah hell nah, that shit be for dorks and losers, man"
A: "nah, man, JJ Abrams made that shit and he got rid of all the dorky shit and make it all cool with sex and explosions and shit...didn't you see the trailer"
B: "yah you know what man, that shit was pretty tight, I ain't gonna lie, aiight lets roll"
Or something to that effect.
But not everyone is gonna be like that and there will still be the cool people that won't want to see it because if it walks like a duck, looks like a duck, then its a duck.
It will only be the NEXT movie that will make $500M worldwide just based on the reputation of Star Trek XI. Right now, this movie is having to fight with the reputation that its still the same ol dork-loser fest of the old Star Trek.
The reason I voted this is not because I think its not a hit- I really think this is a hit from a Star Trek perspective and will generate lots of new fans. But those new fans will be the general Sci-Fi fans that would watch movies like this or the Matrix or even gadget movies like Bond just because the trailer was cool.
I think the movie that will really be a hit is Star Trek XII. Because right now, Star Trek XI is, in the words of Dennis Green, "they are who we thought they were". Meaning, its still Star Trek aka dorks and losers only like it. Fans of the movie who are too cool will be joking that there will be people dressed up in costume to watch the movie and these are the fans that live in the mother's basement, etc etc. I can picture the Leno/Letterman jokes already.
But what will happen is that the movie will get good reviews from the critics, and then word of mouth will push the movie to make $200M or just enough to break even (cost about $150M right?). People will be at theatres and the dialogue will be:
A: "hey you wanna watch that new Star Trek movie?"
B: "ah hell nah, that shit be for dorks and losers, man"
A: "nah, man, JJ Abrams made that shit and he got rid of all the dorky shit and make it all cool with sex and explosions and shit...didn't you see the trailer"
B: "yah you know what man, that shit was pretty tight, I ain't gonna lie, aiight lets roll"
Or something to that effect.
But not everyone is gonna be like that and there will still be the cool people that won't want to see it because if it walks like a duck, looks like a duck, then its a duck.
It will only be the NEXT movie that will make $500M worldwide just based on the reputation of Star Trek XI. Right now, this movie is having to fight with the reputation that its still the same ol dork-loser fest of the old Star Trek.
That is a pretty good evaluation. It's possible some will stay away from this just because it's Trek. That's why Paramount is pushing the Star Wars angle somewhat, because they know everyone went to see the prequels, not just nerds or dorks. This won't be as much an issue overseas. Luckily for Paramount, the GP is fairly easy to manipulate in regard to what they view as "cool". Would anyone have guessed pirates would be cool now?
Also, I find it interesting how the bright, shiny future of Trek is going up against the post apocalyptic future of Terminator. It makes you wonder which one the public will find more appealing.
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