Absolutely not. Dempster's going to be 32 next season and just face-raped his 90th percentile PECOTA -- in his walk year, no less. Let someone else roll the dice on him for $12 million a year.
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Absolutely not. Dempster's going to be 32 next season and just face-raped his 90th percentile PECOTA -- in his walk year, no less. Let someone else roll the dice on him for $12 million a year.
I disagree. I think he's worth a roll. What're the other options for 2 or 3 starter?
Gaudin back to a starting role?
I imagine next year's rotation will be something along the lines of:
1) Zambrano
2) Lilly
3) Harden
4) Marquis
5) Samardzija / Marshall / Lieber
Pen: Anyone with a pulse + Marmol.
Ideally, Marquis would be dumped for prospects on some team that doesn't realize how awful he is, and I imagine the Cubs are going to make a serious run at Ben Sheets. There's no reason to pursue C.C. Sabathia -- he'll be wearing Yankee pinstripes by November.
Dempster's performance this year was completely outside of his career norms (an ERA half a run better than any year as a starter in his career, outside of 3.66 in 2000, and his next best year was 4.71 in 1999; a ridiculous slugging percentage against), a performance that's very indicative of an Adrian Beltre-like walk year performance -- having a monster year as the contract expires, getting huge money and then regressing back to his norms.
He's going to be offered far more than he's worth from an East Coast team (or the Dodgers, who have a ton of junk payroll coming off of the books this winter), and Ryan Dempster is not a long-term sub-3.00 ERA pitcher. He never has been, and he didn't magically discover that ability at age 32. It's the classic fluke season, and there's no reason whatsoever to throw $12-14 million at him (and make no mistake, those are the numbers that his agent's going to be looking for).
The Cubs have some flexibility coming up this winter. Minus Howry, Dempster and Eyre, that's about $12 million off the books. Wood is another $5 million. (Edmonds' contract was negligible.) That's $17 million. Re-signing Wood would cost about $8-9 million, because Francisco Rodriguez is going to blow the market for closers into the stratosphere; given the fungibility of closers, I'm inclined to think that Marmol should be given the closer's job instead of tying a huge chunk of money into Wood, whose arm is still liable to fall off at any moment.
Beyond that, the Cubs' big concern is the outfield. Edmonds is gone, and re-signing him would be a terrible idea; moving Fukudome to center makes the most sense right now. Soriano's stuck in left for the foreseeable future. Adam Dunn would come cheap, and he's always murdered the ball at Wrigley, but those strikeouts terrify me. Colorado very clearly wants to get rid of Matt Holliday, but all the talent in the Cubs' system (I'm looking at you, Pie) has been exposed as swing-from-the-heels jackasses.
ugh...I'd rather have a healthy and somewhat consistent Dempster than Sheets any day of the week. That guy's an injury that isn't just waiting to happen...it does happen. Often.
For Demp, I'd say that, as Wood, there's more than the small opportunity for a hometown discount...perhaps at fewer years than he'd get outside Wrigley. I'd take it.
I like Marquis at five. Lieber's done, and possibly retiring anyway. I like Marshall out of the pen. Is Rich Hill dead? It seems so.
For Demp, I'd say that, as Wood, there's more than the small opportunity for a hometown discount...perhaps at fewer years than he'd get outside Wrigley. I'd take it.
I like Marquis at five. Lieber's done, and possibly retiring anyway. I like Marshall out of the pen. Is Rich Hill dead? It seems so.
If the market were going to be quieter, possibly. But in the 2009 free-agent market, there's one clear top-tier prize of starting pitchers, and that's C.C. Sabathia. The next tier of starting pitchers has Ben Sheets and Ryan Dempster, and it stops there. Those two guys are going to be the consolation prizes for any team that makes a hard run at Sabathia. After Dempster's monster 2008 year, he's going to have a lot of money thrown his way by teams too stupid to look at his career charts. (Much like Adrian Beltre, Darren Dreifort, Carl Pavano, Mike Hampton, etc.)
I admit that he had a great year. But the odds of him coming anywhere near repeating it are pretty much nonexistent, and you don't tie up $14 million a year in a guy who is, at best, a #3 starter. Dempster is consistent, yes, but generally throughout his career as a starter, he's been consistently mediocre at best.
The Cubs have enough bad payroll right now, between Soriano, (right now) Fukudome, Marquis and -- I hate to say it, but Ramirez (who did not play up to his $15 million salary this year). Derrek Lee is slowing down much more quickly than anyone ever expected, too. Spend the money wisely, instead of throwing it at a career average pitcher.
And we thought Calvin Griffith was bad.
But, we'll have to see. The Twins need to add a power hitter and shore up the bullpen, which sprung some major leaks this year. But, overall, I think the young guys did rather well.
As for the Yankees, George will learn, once again, that throwing money at his team will not guarantee a post-season appearance. They need to learn how to utilize and nurture their minor league players. Why draft them if you're not gonna use them?
And, a side note to George: See, it wasn't Joe Torre's fault!
DES
List of 2009 Free Agent Starting Pitchers:
Kris Benson (33)
A.J. Burnett (32) - can opt out after '08 season
Paul Byrd (38)
Roger Clemens (46)
Matt Clement (33)
Bartolo Colon (36)
Ryan Dempster (32)
Shawn Estes (36)
Josh Fogg (32)
Freddy Garcia (33)
Jon Garland (29)
Tom Glavine (43)
Mike Hampton (36)
Mark Hendrickson (35)
Livan Hernandez (34)
Orlando Hernandez (43)
Jason Jennings (30)
Randy Johnson (45)
John Lackey (30) - $9MM club option for '09 with a $0.5MM buyout
Jon Lieber (39)
Braden Looper (34)
Rodrigo Lopez (33) - club option for '09
Derek Lowe (36)
Greg Maddux (43)
Pedro Martinez (37)
Sergio Mitre (28)
Jamie Moyer (46)
Mark Mulder (31) - $11MM club option for '09 with a $1.5MM buyout
Mike Mussina (40)
Carl Pavano (33) - $13MM club option for '09 with a $1.95MM buyout
Brad Penny (31) - $8.75MM club option for '09 with a $2MM buyout
Odalis Perez (32)
Oliver Perez (27)
Andy Pettitte (37)
Sidney Ponson (32)
Mark Prior (27)
Kenny Rogers (44)
Glendon Rusch (34)
C.C. Sabathia (28)
Curt Schilling (42)
Ben Sheets (30)
John Smoltz (42)
Tim Wakefield (42) - perpetual $4MM club option
Kip Wells (32)
Randy Wolf (32)
Kris Benson (33)
A.J. Burnett (32) - can opt out after '08 season
Paul Byrd (38)
Roger Clemens (46)
Matt Clement (33)
Bartolo Colon (36)
Ryan Dempster (32)
Shawn Estes (36)
Josh Fogg (32)
Freddy Garcia (33)
Jon Garland (29)
Tom Glavine (43)
Mike Hampton (36)
Mark Hendrickson (35)
Livan Hernandez (34)
Orlando Hernandez (43)
Jason Jennings (30)
Randy Johnson (45)
John Lackey (30) - $9MM club option for '09 with a $0.5MM buyout
Jon Lieber (39)
Braden Looper (34)
Rodrigo Lopez (33) - club option for '09
Derek Lowe (36)
Greg Maddux (43)
Pedro Martinez (37)
Sergio Mitre (28)
Jamie Moyer (46)
Mark Mulder (31) - $11MM club option for '09 with a $1.5MM buyout
Mike Mussina (40)
Carl Pavano (33) - $13MM club option for '09 with a $1.95MM buyout
Brad Penny (31) - $8.75MM club option for '09 with a $2MM buyout
Odalis Perez (32)
Oliver Perez (27)
Andy Pettitte (37)
Sidney Ponson (32)
Mark Prior (27)
Kenny Rogers (44)
Glendon Rusch (34)
C.C. Sabathia (28)
Curt Schilling (42)
Ben Sheets (30)
John Smoltz (42)
Tim Wakefield (42) - perpetual $4MM club option
Kip Wells (32)
Randy Wolf (32)
THat pretty much reinforces what I said earlier: There's Sabathia, and then there are Sheets & Dempster, and then there's ... everyone else. Sabathia's the top prize, Sheets is great but his arm might fall off at any minute, and Dempster looks set to regress to his career averages.
What a weak class of free-agent starters.
Edit: One more point on the Cubs letting Dempster walk -- this is an old team, and it's not getting any younger (even the Cajun duo of Fontenot and Theriot are nearing 30, and aren't likely to break out at all anymore). After the Harden trade, there's no one left in the minors outside of Vitters. Dempster will likely be a Type A free agent, which means the Cubs would be compensated with two draft picks if he were to sign with another team. The Cubs need those picks, desperately, because it's time to start re-building that farm system now.
What a weak class of free-agent starters.
Edit: One more point on the Cubs letting Dempster walk -- this is an old team, and it's not getting any younger (even the Cajun duo of Fontenot and Theriot are nearing 30, and aren't likely to break out at all anymore). After the Harden trade, there's no one left in the minors outside of Vitters. Dempster will likely be a Type A free agent, which means the Cubs would be compensated with two draft picks if he were to sign with another team. The Cubs need those picks, desperately, because it's time to start re-building that farm system now.
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I'm sure Hank will want to make a big splash now that he's running the team. And they are shedding like $85M in payroll. I can see them chasing Sabathia and Texeira, getting their usual cast of aging, overpaid players, and losing in the Wild Card round yet again.
They haven't learned.
I got stuck behind a major accident on the way to work this morning and had plenty of time to listen to Mike and Mike. Anyone else hear the study that was done on the financial cost of a win for each MLB team?
The 5 most cost effective teams were either in the playoffs, or in contention to the end. Tampa, Minnesota, Houston, Arizona, and someone else.
The 5 least were the Yanks, Mets, Braves, Mariners, and Braves. Only the Mets posed any serious threat.
^The Braves were so ineffective they've got to be mentioned twice I take it...
^The Braves were so ineffective they've got to be mentioned twice I take it...
Well, they basically payed Mike Hampton 2 million dollars a start this year.
Mr. Met needs to check into alcohol rehab. 
Mariners..... sigh.
Anyway, I think it will come down to the Dodgers and the Red Sox. And what a series that will be - Manny taking on his former team. The TV producers would definitely like it.
Anyway, I think it will come down to the Dodgers and the Red Sox. And what a series that will be - Manny taking on his former team. The TV producers would definitely like it.
Ouch. What do you think they are going to do with Ichiro. Seemed like the rest of the team had put up with him for the last time. That was such a strange news story when it came out.
What's their gripe with Ichiro? Is he a dick in the clubhouse or something? He sure produces on the field.
And a methodone clinic.Mr. Met needs to check into alcohol rehab.
He'll probably chain himself to Shea Stadium just before they blow it up!
