I think you're overstating the certainty with which we (as a scientific community) have nailed down a few things:
1. How long it takes for live to develop
2. How much longer it takes for intelligent life to develop
3. What natural or artificial processes a habitable planet might undergo which would make it uninhabitable
4. The time scale for said events to take place and bring a planet to Mars' present state
This is true, however I take a different perspective on the matter. In particular, I believe that right now it is safe to assume that there never was sentient life on Mars.
It is true, our knowledge of life and extraterrestrial life is very limited, and it is mostly based on wild assumptions that might be very much incorrect (many of them possibly are), and we haven't had the chance to even begin making rigorous scientific tests on those assumptions, so we aren't even sure how uncertain we are. But we are capable of making very well-thought and reasonable assumptions, and we are also capable of drawing good conclusions even when we are uncertain about many of the premises.
1. It's very much expected that any life on Mars developed at a slower rate than Earth (less energy input, presumably worse conditions).
2. It's quite possible, even likely, that life never started on Mars. We don't know how common is life in the Universe, but the best initial assumption would be that it is possibly common but not everywhere. The "not everywhere" part would imply that it's more likely that life didn't start on Mars. (By "everywhere" I mean "everywhere where the conditions seem favourable".)
3. If life existed for a very long time on Mars, and especially if there was complex life, it would have left tons of evidence behind. So far we haven't found any. It's true that we haven't spent enough resources looking for that evidence, so that's very far from a confirmation of any sort, but it's very strange if Mars was rich in life recently and we haven't picked anything that would suggest so.
At this point I think it's safe to assume that Mars is more likely to be lifeless than otherwise and I'm almost certain that any life on it never reached sentient phase.
Now, here comes the most wonderful thing of science - you test what you expect, you test the obvious, you test what you're certain of, and you also retest what science has already proven. The best scientific results are those that contradict your expectations, because that's when you learn most. That's why it's important to study Mars better, regardless of whether we “know” or not.
We don't test things because we are uncertain in them, we test things to confirm them, and
even when we're pretty much certain in them for one reason or another so that we can increase the certainty and, more importantly,
be surprised.
