How Sony Could Lose James Bond After Bloated 'Spectre' (Analysis)
The film, with a $250 million-plus budget, marks the last in a deal with MGM, which is expected to court many distributors as a major franchise could change hands.
James Bond is about to become a free agent, setting off a scramble among studios eager to win distribution rights to one of Hollywood's few seemingly gold-plated franchise.
Sony Pictures opens Spectre, the 24th official Bond movie, on Nov. 6 in North America (the Brits get an early look Oct. 26), as the 007 adventure chases box-office records established by 2012's Skyfall, which grossed $1.1 billion worldwide to become the biggest film in the series' 53-year history. With early tracking pointing toward an $80 million-plus domestic bow, the movie has Skyfall's $88 million debut in its sights.
But even if the film proves a big success, as most believe it will, it could mark the end of the Sony/MGM collaboration. Spectre is the last in a two-picture deal that Sony struck in 2011 with MGM, which controls rights to Bond along with Eon producers Barbara Broccoli and Michael G. Wilson. Sources say MGM expects to pursue an especially tough bargain once other studios come calling.
When it came to agreeing on Spectre's budget, though, Barber effectively called the studio's bluff in June 2013 as a press release announcing the 2015 release date was about to be issued. Although a firm budget was not in place, Barber told Sony brass that if they wanted their studio mentioned in the release, they had to opt in immediately. As the movie's start date approached a year later, one Sony exec advised his colleagues that it was looking as if the budget — thanks to exotic locations and raises for Craig and returning director Sam Mendes — would climb into the $260 million range.
At MGM, alarm bells had begun to sound: In November, Jonathan Glickman, president of the MGM motion picture group, sent an email to Broccoli and Wilson, among others, arguing for cuts in stunts and location work since the budget had grown $50 million beyond the $210 million for Skyfall. "The current gross budget sits in the mid $300Ms, making this one of the most expensive films ever made," wrote Glickman in the email, which was revealed in the Sony hack.
"As far as MGM is concerned, Bond is the lifeblood of the company right now," notes analyst Hal Vogel. "It's of lesser importance, but it's still important for Sony because it gives them distribution fees they might not otherwise have had, and they're obviously in need of cash flow as they try to execute a turnaround at the box office."
Of course, Spectre's ultimate performance will impact any new deal, with Sony or another studio, so negotiations are not expected to begin until 2016. If Bond does go on the open market — some rival execs suspect MGM might just be floating that idea to strengthen its bargaining position with Sony — there still are big questions about the franchise.
Even as the latest Bond was getting underway, Broccoli, in an email to then-Sony co-chair Amy Pascal, seemed to acknowledge that the franchise's days at the studio could be numbered. "Amy, I can't bear the idea of this being our last Bond together. I don't know why Gary [Barber] should want to make a change after all the success we have had together," she wrote. Responded Pascal, "This doesn't really have to be our last Bond movie. If we do a really good job for you guys why wouldn't MGM want to stuck [sic] with us and by the way who else is gonna make such a one sided deal with MGM."
Pascal was forced out of her job in February. Now, the question is whether Bond will follow.