Is meteorology even real?

[RoJoHen]

I ask because for roughly 50% of the days this summer, the forecast has been wrong? Hell, sometimes they don't even get the CURRENT weather right! I check the weather, and it says it's storming outside, but I look outside and the sun is shining!

I've tried to make plans all summer around the weather forecasts (I only get 1-2 days off a week, so I like to make the most of them), but half the time the forecast has been completely wrong. That, or the forecast has changed at the very last minute.

So I have to wonder...what the hell do meteorologists do?

 

[trekkiedane]

So I have to wonder...what the hell do meteorologists do?

They just like playing with some of the biggest computers ever made...

 

[Amaris]

I ask because for roughly 50% of the days this summer, the forecast has been wrong? Hell, sometimes they don't even get the CURRENT weather right! I check the weather, and it says it's storming outside, but I look outside and the sun is shining!

I've tried to make plans all summer around the weather forecasts (I only get 1-2 days off a week, so I like to make the most of them), but half the time the forecast has been completely wrong. That, or the forecast has changed at the very last minute.

So I have to wonder...what the hell do meteorologists do?

I use a barometer, a thermometer and a wind gauge. Coupled with my understanding of cloud formations and wind patterns (I used to chase tornadoes and still do occasionally), I am more accurate than the latest meteorological forecast.


J.

 

[Miss Chicken]

I just look out of the window at the Mountain. If I

a) Can't see it because of cloud cover it is likely or is raining and i will need a coat.
b) If it is clear of snow, or only has a sprinkling of snow, I will only need a sweater (this is in winter)
c) If the snow is down to the Organ Pipes (rock formation on mountain) than I will need a sweater and coat.
d) If the snow is down to 400 feet or less I need sweater, coat, gloves, wooly hat and scarf

In winter this is more reliable than the weather bureau.

 

[FPAlpha]

Meteorology works on a large scale.. entire countries and not specific regions.

It is a science but not a very precise one because we still don't understand everything about the weather and climate and so sometimes they are just plain wrong. So they may predict rain and it is sunny outside.. go outside of the region and it may indeed be raining (if had this several times.. in my town it's sunny, drive to the other town across the river and all hell has broken loose).

 

[Jadzia]

If you want to test the accuracy of the 24 hour forecasts, then do so by taking your own measurements and keeping a record over a month or so. Then see how they compare.

In England, rain typically falls once in three days on average through the year. A poster on the wall which said "there will be no rain today" would be accurate 66% of the time.

So to have any credibility a forecast would have to predict dry/wet weather days correctly more often than that.


edit: I remember my father would always say while watching the forecasts, "They spend more time telling us what the weather was like yesterday, than predicting what it is going to be like tomorrow."

 

[FordSVT]

It depends greatly where you live as well. Some areas have more stable climates than others with more predictable winds and interactions with the jet stream. Where I live on the East Coast we get very unpredictable weather. Warm air from the South moves up the East coast and interacts with the air currents that typically come in from the great lakes and at times down from the north east Atlantic and then we have the local interaction with the Bay of Fundy and all the water that moves in and out of there every day. Within 10 miles of the coast you can basically flip a coin most of the time to predict the weather. The Jet Stream likes to whip back and forth across our region without much warning as it interacts with the cold water in the ocean. The only reason they're saying with any confidence that today and the next few days are going to be clear is because there aren't any active weather systems for hundreds of miles.

I'd imagine a weather person in Arizona would have a very boring job.