How Much Does The Movie Have To Make To Be A Success?

[ancient]

If they were producing old Trek, it would be toast. Abrams trek on the other hand, may or may not be toast, though I'm leaning heavily towards 'not'.

Trek doesn't have to make any more than any other movie with similar budget and tie-in potential. Based on the past record of the director and writers, there's no reason to believe it can't reach that level.

The only thing that I see that may hurt the movie is the lack of a big star as one of the main players. MI has Cruise. Transformers...I didn't see, but I think that young guy whose name I can't spell is pretty popular.

None of the actors are a strike against the movie - they all seem good so far - but Tom Cruise they ain't.

 

[Warp Coil]

I think that ST XI need to bring in at least $150 million at the domestic box office in order to be considered a 'hit'. Then, once the international figures and DVD sales are factored in, the film should be able to break even and even make a profit.

 

[SalvorHardin]

The only thing that I see that may hurt the movie is the lack of a big star as one of the main players.

And the name of Star Trek itself.
I still think that all things considered the "stigma" the name of Trek has with the general public is one of the biggest obstacles to overcome on the way to success.

But if anyone can do it, I think it's this team.

 

[ancient]

I think that ST XI need to bring in at least $150 million at the domestic box office in order to be considered a 'hit'. Then, once the international figures and DVD sales are factored in, the film should be able to break even and even make a profit.

The movie has probably already begun paying for itself with toy rights and the product tie-in with a little food chain called Burger King. Also, this looks to be the first Trek movie in a while to bring in product-placement.

The only thing that I see that may hurt the movie is the lack of a big star as one of the main players.

And the name of Star Trek itself.
I still think that all things considered the "stigma" the name of Trek has with the general public is one of the biggest obstacles to overcome on the way to success.

But if anyone can do it, I think it's this team.

I don't think I'm a believer in the so-called "trek stigma". True, there has been a lot of crappy, by-the-book trek produced which has turned Trek into something of a sad property that only the fans give a crap about, but Trek has the ability to rebound just like any other franchise.

I don't think Trek is some sort of special property that only those "of the body" can enjoy. It's just been over a decade since it was marketed properly at anyone else. Trek films devolved into 'gifts to the fans' a long time ago. The same could be said of the last couple shows. If they do proper marketing this time and burn a few unneeded bridges they'll be in great shape, imo.

Abrams is "not of the body", but then neither were Nick Meyer & co., who, love or hate them, did save Trek once before - by heavily altering it.

 

[Captain Robert April]

I think that ST XI need to bring in at least $150 million at the domestic box office in order to be considered a 'hit'. Then, once the international figures and DVD sales are factored in, the film should be able to break even and even make a profit.

I think we need to fill in some blanks.

At the box office, roughly half the money goes to the theatre (it varies depending on the movie and the deals struck with the various chains, but on average, the theatre gets around half). That's why the old formula is that a movie has to make back twice its budget in order to break even. Factor in the promotional budget and other expenses, and it starts getting closer to three times.

So, a $150 million movie making only $150 million at the box office is an unqualified flop.

 

[Therin of Andor]

I don't think this was the ONLY route they could've taken...they could have let Manny and the Reeves-Stevenses run with Enterprise at least one more season, the buzz was VERY good for S4.

The network it was on didn't want the show any more. The ratings were dismal compared to "Broken Bow" - and really, really bad compared to TNG. While the quality of stories went up in Season Three, and again in Season Four, the viewership was not increasing. The licensed toy companies would have been angry that the money they'd spent, developing action figures and ship models for a show not enough people watched, was not being recouped.

As good as Season Four was, it was probably a good idea to pull the plug.

 

[mswood]

Studios typically get any where between 55% - 50% of the ticket sales from the theaters in the US (its lower for overseas, how much depends on the nation).

Out of that the studios get the largest percentage for its opening week and then that percentage lowers as the weeks pass (why so many films push for huge openings, studios get a larger junk during that opening week).

The old model was that the typical film (of average or greater budget) needed to earn 2.5 to 3 times its production budget to actual cover those production costs (and marketing, prints, interests on the loans, ect). But that was before the home market truly took off (now some films did sell extremely well on VHS, but most didn't). With the Home market, even in its declining state, I would assume a film needs to make about 2 to 2.5 times its production cost at the theaters. The rest of that shortfall should be made up on the Home Market.

As for merchandise, that can be a huge, huge, huge money maker, but for most properties it isn't. And I doubt Trek will ever fall into that highly lucrative merchandise group.

With a $150 million US gross, that would seem to be a sure fire winner, and solely comparing it to Trek's recent efforts it would be. With inflation it would be very close to First Contacts US ticket sales. But with a budget that is far, far greater (even with inflation) it would not be enough to generate another film. It would have to do exceptional sales overseas (something Trek has never done).

NOt that it couldn't, but I wouldn't bet much on that being the case.

 

[Admiral Buzzkill]

Reasonable from their POV, because before - and without - this movie they have nothing any more where Trek is concerned.

I don't think this was the ONLY route they could've taken...they could have let Manny and the Reeves-Stevenses run with Enterprise at least one more season, the buzz was VERY good for S4.

Not enough people were watching the show for the network to want to keep airing it. It doesn't matter how good the "buzz" was among trekkies.

 

[Therin of Andor]

With a $150 million US gross, that would seem to be a sure fire winner

Huh? Wasn't the budget $150 million?

 

[darkwing_duck1]

...

They may set aside some cash for refurbishing TNG, like they did for TOS, but you can bet that they won't be spending a ton on the FX redo, after all they're looking at the bottom line on how much they can make.

I think CBS didn't spend all that much to get TOS-R made, unless someone knows for a fact how much cash CBS tossed at it per episode. I'm willing to bet they spent about $100,000 or so per episode.

...

I've heard that cost for TOS-R averaged around $200,000 per episode, but I don't have firm source for that, so take it for what it's worth. I don't think I'd hold my breath waiting for TNG-R, though; more than double the number of episodes ups the price tag significantly and perhaps more than CBS is willing to consider.

But this thread is really about the movie and its chances of doing well enough to get us more movies.

Not to mention the technical impossibility of the project, as the film masters no longer exist (the show was output to video).

 

[Squiggy]

With a $150 million US gross, that would seem to be a sure fire winner

Huh? Wasn't the budget $150 million?

Then all movie sales and foreign box would be profit.

 

[darkwing_duck1]

Reasonable from their POV, because before - and without - this movie they have nothing any more where Trek is concerned.

I don't think this was the ONLY route they could've taken...they could have let Manny and the Reeves-Stevenses run with Enterprise at least one more season, the buzz was VERY good for S4.

Not enough people were watching the show for the network to want to keep airing it. It doesn't matter how good the "buzz" was among trekkies.

The numbers going into the Christmas hiatus were stabilizing, and if the studio had shown just a LITTLE more support, they could have built throughout the last part of the season.

But the PTB announced EARLY that S4 was the end, no matter what, which killed off the positive momentum.

And for those saying that S4 was positivly absolutely ALWAYS going to be the last, why did Paramount let Manny start the preproduction process (story development, etc) for Season FIVE?

We know he was working on it, because the details have been released.

 

[Admiral Buzzkill]

Not enough people were watching the show for the network to want to keep airing it. It doesn't matter how good the "buzz" was among trekkies.

The numbers going into the Christmas hiatus were stabilizing, and if the studio had shown just a LITTLE more support, they could have built throughout the last part of the season.

So they were "stabilizing" in the basement, so what? The ratings "could have built" some and still would have been too low for UPN to be satisfied that there was a future in the thing

Anyway "could have built" is speculation that contradicts fifteen years of Trek history - aside from the occasional one-week bump up, since 1994 no Trek TV show's ratings had built and risen for any length of time no matter what was done. The trend was always down.

Coto could plan whatever he wanted - the show was dead before he took charge.

 

[HRHTheKING]

300M

 

[darkwing_duck1]

Coto could plan whatever he wanted - the show was dead before he took charge.

So it's your claim that the PTB at Paramount deliberately withheld information from Coto (that S4 was the final season) and LET him plan for seasons that would never be, affecting his choice of story, pacing, and style for the show? That they authorized big expendiutes, like the reconstruction of the TOS sets JUST for IAMD? That they commissioned writers to pitch stories for a season they never intended to produce?

 

[Admiral Buzzkill]

You pretty clearly don't understand how all that works.

How much notice are you under the impression that a line producer typically gets that the show he works for has been cancelled by the network?

Berman and Braga wouldn't have disengaged from the day-to-day to begin with if they'd had any reason to think that the show would continue.

 

[photon70]

Hi everyone,

In terms of the studio/movie theatre split in North America, I understand its:

1st weekend: Studio gets 90%

2nd weekend: Studio gets 80%

3rd weekend: Studio gets 70%

4th weekend and onwards: Studio gets 60%

That's why if that 1st weekend is huge, a movie is considered a box office hit.

If we guessed that the budget was $150 million and ads were another $50 million, then to break even, this movie need to rake in about $275 million worldwide.

Can it do this? I'd say yes and predict a final worldwide box office take of $350 million.

Cheers

photon70

 

[I am not Spock]

I don't think there should be any reason why Trek can't bounce back like any other ailing movie franchise. After Batman and Robin, who would have thought Batman would return from that disaster?

I really hope this film performs well. But I am concerned. Can it overcome the 'stigma'?

 

[Captain Robert April]

My impression regarding ENT's fourth season was that while it was almost certainly going to be the last season, the higher ups held out the slim hope that if things really turned around, they might get a fifth season, but the odds of that happening were on the order of me hooking up with Kate Winslet.

So, yeah, there was some "just in case" planning going on, but nobody was holding their breath.

 

[darkwing_duck1]

You pretty clearly don't understand how all that works.

How much notice are you under the impression that a line producer typically gets that the show he works for has been cancelled by the network?

Berman and Braga wouldn't have disengaged from the day-to-day to begin with if they'd had any reason to think that the show would continue.

Well then, enlighten me! (no sarcasm intended).

Why would the studio allow Manny to spend it's money to solicit and commission stories, overspend on certain shows with the idea that the expense would emeliorate over a number of future shows?

It's one thing for a studio to dance the "pick up or not" dance at the end of the season, but if, as you maintain, that decision was made and final before S4 even STARTED? It doesn't pass the common sense test.