How long before TV dies?

[Deckerd]

TV won't die in our lifetime. As long as there are old people there will be TV.

 

[Robert Maxwell]

Over-the-air broadcasts won't go away anytime soon--probably not even within my lifetime.

Cable and satellite TV will survive, too. I think they'll just gradually migrate to a more "on-demand" model. The only reason we have DVRs is because all TV is scheduled and people want to watch TV on their own time--and perhaps without commercials. So, the obvious solution here is to deschedule TV, and instead have first-run shows just become available via on-demand services. You watch the show (with ads), and everyone who watches it within 7 days of its availability counts toward ratings.

There would still be channels, which define what shows are available for watching. So, today's cable networks wouldn't necessarily go anywhere.

And for the people who don't like all this newfangled on-demand stuff, there would be a default schedule for every channel, so you could still channel surf and see what's on.

So, TV won't die, it will change how it works, a little at a time, until it's something different. But it won't be dead.

 

[jefferiestubes8]

TV business models

TV dieing as a medium for entertainment transmission. That it will be replaced with the internet.

How long do you think it will be before this happens, and

The monitor as a television will always be around.
You are speaking of the business model of the content and broadcasting with commercials.

10-15 years before the broadcast model of advertising-supported television on 24 hours a day goes away in the USA.
I think shows will be made and the equivalent hours-per-day will be greatly reduced since most people would watch on-demand only the shows they want to see.
"live" will no longer be important except for a sports game broadcast.

what do you think will be the "final nail" in the TV Network model of business.

When only 30% of TV channels use Nielsen ratings to sell advertising.

 

[sojourner]

I would've thought it was clear enough: that your experiences are not representative of broader adoption trends; and that by extension predictions concerning broad adoption trends based upon those experiences are not useful.

Opinions vary... I get paid for my knowledge in technology, so someone must be listening.

But we could put a wager on this... see if what I've said pans out over time?

Anyone who has installed quicktime on a PC can tell you about invasive...

Actually, anyone who has installed Quicktime on a PC can see why Windows is a hostile environment for developers other than Microsoft. Microsoft doesn't want Quicktime (or Real Player, or soon Flash) to work well on Windows.

Any software that competes with Microsoft's offerings will always have an uphill battle on Windows. It was why the DoJ had originally ask to break up Microsoft.

Microsoft wants Apple products not to work well in Windows, Apple wants their products to work perfectly in Windows... and most users blame Apple if Apple products don't work as well as they should.

Doesn't matter... it won't change anything anyways.

So, it's Microsoft's fault that everytime Quicktime tries to do an update it tries to sneak in an install of Itunes? Quicktime has never been a problem running, it's just insidious.

And yea, I have worked in IT for over 15 years. I've seen a few installs.

 

[Data Holmes]

I would've thought it was clear enough: that your experiences are not representative of broader adoption trends; and that by extension predictions concerning broad adoption trends based upon those experiences are not useful.

Opinions vary... I get paid for my knowledge in technology, so someone must be listening.

But we could put a wager on this... see if what I've said pans out over time?

Anyone who has installed quicktime on a PC can tell you about invasive...

Actually, anyone who has installed Quicktime on a PC can see why Windows is a hostile environment for developers other than Microsoft. Microsoft doesn't want Quicktime (or Real Player, or soon Flash) to work well on Windows.

Any software that competes with Microsoft's offerings will always have an uphill battle on Windows. It was why the DoJ had originally ask to break up Microsoft.

Microsoft wants Apple products not to work well in Windows, Apple wants their products to work perfectly in Windows... and most users blame Apple if Apple products don't work as well as they should.

Doesn't matter... it won't change anything anyways.

So, it's Microsoft's fault that everytime Quicktime tries to do an update it tries to sneak in an install of Itunes? Quicktime has never been a problem running, it's just insidious.

And yea, I have worked in IT for over 15 years. I've seen a few installs.

Yes, because asking if you want to install iTunes or not is insidious.

 

[Shaw]

And yea, I have worked in IT for over 15 years. I've seen a few installs.

Good... and I'm happy for you.

Maybe you can use your abilities to define sneak for me. So far I'm seeing an irrational anti-Apple sentiment that seems very un-IT Professional, but it might be justified (if, say, Apple left a back door to your system wide open or something along those lines... which would be a good reason to have that type of feeling about any company).

Just curious.

 

[Lindley]

So, it's Microsoft's fault that everytime Quicktime tries to do an update it tries to sneak in an install of Itunes?

Oddly enough, every time I install Windows, MS tries to sneak in an install of Internet Explorer.

Damn them.

 

[John Picard]

Apple can have my money when they pry it from my cold, dead fingers.

If your all for simple, controlling, invasive, and overpriced, go for it buy an Apple, otherwise join the free world and buy products that let you remain in control.

What do you mean? I'm a Windows Power User who also happens to like (and formerly owned) Apple computers. They're only as simple as you want them to be. As for invasive, how so? I had full reign over OS X. Regarding overpriced, I bought my iMac used, and for less than $500 for everything. It was an iMac 17" Intel Dual Core that not only ran everything I threw at it, but that it also worked flawlessly the whole time I owned it.

Anyone who has installed quicktime on a PC can tell you about invasive, and pricing on a used computer doesn't really apply to how Apple prices things does it?

Windows is riddled with more (security) holes than Bonnie and Clyde's car.

Also, your "Apple is controlling" statement is false and misleading.

 

[FordSVT]

Actually, anyone who has installed Quicktime on a PC can see why Windows is a hostile environment for developers other than Microsoft. Microsoft doesn't want Quicktime (or Real Player, or soon Flash) to work well on Windows.

Any software that competes with Microsoft's offerings will always have an uphill battle on Windows. It was why the DoJ had originally ask to break up Microsoft.

Microsoft wants Apple products not to work well in Windows, Apple wants their products to work perfectly in Windows... and most users blame Apple if Apple products don't work as well as they should.

Doesn't matter... it won't change anything anyways.

Bullshit. Quicktime and Real Player are simply poor products, and if Flash dies it's because it's less secure on all OS platforms than its competitors, not just Windows.

You want to hold Mac up as an example of a platform that welcomes development for it? Control over the software running on Apple hardware is the company's M.O.

 

[Hermiod]

You want to hold Mac up as an example of a platform that welcomes development for it? Control over the software running on Apple hardware is the company's M.O.

Yeah, Apple really lock down development for Mac OS X. So much that they give away Xcode for free on the DVD that ships with every single Mac sold.

That'll stop third party development dead, that will.

 

[Robert Maxwell]

Actually, anyone who has installed Quicktime on a PC can see why Windows is a hostile environment for developers other than Microsoft. Microsoft doesn't want Quicktime (or Real Player, or soon Flash) to work well on Windows.

Any software that competes with Microsoft's offerings will always have an uphill battle on Windows. It was why the DoJ had originally ask to break up Microsoft.

Microsoft wants Apple products not to work well in Windows, Apple wants their products to work perfectly in Windows... and most users blame Apple if Apple products don't work as well as they should.

Doesn't matter... it won't change anything anyways.

Bullshit. Quicktime and Real Player are simply poor products, and if Flash dies it's because it's less secure on all OS platforms than its competitors, not just Windows.

You want to hold Mac up as an example of a platform that welcomes development for it? Control over the software running on Apple hardware is the company's M.O.

QFT.

I am not an Apple hater by any means--they actually make some very slick hardware, and their software integration with it is very well-done. But the Windows version of QuickTime is absolute garbage. Bloated, slow, unreliable, unstable. You can't pin that on Microsoft--plenty of other third-party media players seem to work just fine, with a much smaller footprint. It's pretty sad when something like Media Player Classic is more reliable for playing MP4 videos than QuickTime is.

I have not used iTunes on Windows, but from what I hear I never want to, either.

Mac software works great on Macs. It seems to suck unholy ass on any other platform.

 

[LitmusDragon]

Me I still think that it's going to be in the next two to five years.

There are technical reasons this can't happen yet- for one, there isn't any such thing as 1080p 5.1 channel streaming yet. Netflix only offers 720p dolby (citation). Even when it is released, it will require about 15mbps estimated, much more than most people have available even on high speed internet.

This isn't even considering the business model issues- where would new TV funding come from, if not from advertisers?

 

[Shaw]

Bullshit...

QFT.

... You can't pin that on Microsoft...

I wasn't expressing an opinion... if was a matter of fact (and included in the findings of fact against Microsoft, and those findings were upheld on appeal) and history.

Whether you guys acknowledge them or not doesn't change reality, and makes no difference in the larger scheme of things. You can believe what you want.

You want to hold Mac up as an example of a platform that welcomes development for it? Control over the software running on Apple hardware is the company's M.O.

What control are you talking about?

Apple has never stopped software makers from making great products for Macs and it is an open environment (with more open access to APIs than on Windows).

Are you talking about software running on peripherals? I don't use an iPhone or iPod touch, so I really don't care what Apple does on them... they aren't really computers anyways (they seem more like entertainment centers... like the xbox or playstation).





Apple haters... the name Apple is enough to bring them out in force. I find it amazing that Microsoft has screwed you guys over more (and deeper) than Apple ever could, but you guys stay devoted to it.

Hmmm... I wound if that is an example of stockholm syndrome?

 

[John Picard]

Bullshit...

QFT.

... You can't pin that on Microsoft...

I wasn't expressing an opinion... if was a matter of fact (and included in the findings of fact against Microsoft, and those findings were upheld on appeal) and history.

Whether you guys acknowledge them or not doesn't change reality, and makes no difference in the larger scheme of things. You can believe what you want.

You want to hold Mac up as an example of a platform that welcomes development for it? Control over the software running on Apple hardware is the company's M.O.

What control are you talking about?

Apple has never stopped software makers from making great products for Macs and it is an open environment (with more open access to APIs than on Windows).

Are you talking about software running on peripherals? I don't use an iPhone or iPod touch, so I really don't care what Apple does on them... they aren't really computers anyways (they seem more like entertainment centers... like the xbox or playstation).





Apple haters... the name Apple is enough to bring them out in force. I find it amazing that Microsoft has screwed you guys over more (and deeper) than Apple ever could, but you guys stay devoted to it.

Hmmm... I wound if that is an example of stockholm syndrome?

I got fed up with MS products and PCs after dealing with the associate BS with them since the late-1980's. You know, stupid shit like: hardware conflicts; memory management issues; device driver problems; unstable O/S; security holes; and of course, Microsoft LOCKING DOWN their O/S with their neat little "calling home to mommy" feature to "prevent pirating of the O/S"

I've been on a Mac for a little over a year, and would never go back. Then again, I guess Apple owns my soul now, right?

 

[sojourner]

Bullshit...

QFT.

... You can't pin that on Microsoft...

I wasn't expressing an opinion... if was a matter of fact (and included in the findings of fact against Microsoft, and those findings were upheld on appeal) and history.

Whether you guys acknowledge them or not doesn't change reality, and makes no difference in the larger scheme of things. You can believe what you want.

You want to hold Mac up as an example of a platform that welcomes development for it? Control over the software running on Apple hardware is the company's M.O.

What control are you talking about?

Apple has never stopped software makers from making great products for Macs and it is an open environment (with more open access to APIs than on Windows).

Are you talking about software running on peripherals? I don't use an iPhone or iPod touch, so I really don't care what Apple does on them... they aren't really computers anyways (they seem more like entertainment centers... like the xbox or playstation).





Apple haters... the name Apple is enough to bring them out in force. I find it amazing that Microsoft has screwed you guys over more (and deeper) than Apple ever could, but you guys stay devoted to it.

Hmmm... I wound if that is an example of stockholm syndrome?

No, not Stockholm, more "lesser of 2 evils".

And as for controlling? yes, just ask all those developers trying to get their apps published for the Iphone how "open" Apple is.

 

[Data Holmes]

Me I still think that it's going to be in the next two to five years.

There are technical reasons this can't happen yet- for one, there isn't any such thing as 1080p 5.1 channel streaming yet. Netflix only offers 720p dolby (citation). Even when it is released, it will require about 15mbps estimated, much more than most people have available even on high speed internet.

I know that 1080p streaming isn't here yet, but I think it will be soon.

As far as broadband access goes, that looks to be something The Obama Admin is looking to fix. We are 9 days away from the FCC's issuance of the National Broadband plan. They have a website already up and counting down, with a blog, here: http://www.broadband.gov/ And going by some of the leaked previews it seems like this thing is going to be massive and far beyond what anyone expects. Here are just three pages covering this:

"In charging the Commission with creating a National Broadband Plan," said FCC chairman Julius Genachowski in a statement, "Congress took the significant step of instructing us to address not only broadband deployment and adoption, but also to look at how broadband can advance a series of 'national purposes.' What was behind that directive, I believe, was a vision of the future that motivates us every day."

As the Internet and television markets converge, the task force also noted that a lack of innovation exists in the TV set-top box market. Specifically, the majority of consumers today use set-top boxes provided through their subscription TV providers. And only a very small number of devices are even available to purchase at retail. By comparison, there are hundreds of devices available in the mobile phone market. Due to a lack of competition, innovation has been stifled. And the task force recommends the FCC adopt policies to encourage a retail market for such devices.

The FCC announced at the National Association of Regulatory Utility Commissioners conference that it wants US ISPs to deliver a hefty 100 Mbps to 100 million homes within just ten years.



The NTIA issued a report last month, Digital Nation, 21st Century America's progress toward universal broadband which you can read here: http://www.ntia.doc.gov/reports/2010/NTIA_internet_use_report_Feb2010.pdf So this will no doubt come into play here as well.

This isn't even considering the business model issues- where would new TV funding come from, if not from advertisers?

Sponsors, product placement, and direct income from the individual rental, sale, and streaming licensing fees, for subscription based streaming content companies, of the programs.

Hmmm... I wound if that is an example of stockholm syndrome?

Indeed.

 

[Data Holmes]

QFT.

... You can't pin that on Microsoft...

I wasn't expressing an opinion... if was a matter of fact (and included in the findings of fact against Microsoft, and those findings were upheld on appeal) and history.

Whether you guys acknowledge them or not doesn't change reality, and makes no difference in the larger scheme of things. You can believe what you want.

You want to hold Mac up as an example of a platform that welcomes development for it? Control over the software running on Apple hardware is the company's M.O.

What control are you talking about?

Apple has never stopped software makers from making great products for Macs and it is an open environment (with more open access to APIs than on Windows).

Are you talking about software running on peripherals? I don't use an iPhone or iPod touch, so I really don't care what Apple does on them... they aren't really computers anyways (they seem more like entertainment centers... like the xbox or playstation).





Apple haters... the name Apple is enough to bring them out in force. I find it amazing that Microsoft has screwed you guys over more (and deeper) than Apple ever could, but you guys stay devoted to it.

Hmmm... I wound if that is an example of stockholm syndrome?

No, not Stockholm, more "lesser of 2 evils".

And as for controlling? yes, just ask all those developers trying to get their apps published for the Iphone how "open" Apple is.

iPhone is not an open system... I can't think of many open system smart phone OS's beyond Android...

 

[sojourner]

^Yes. Correct. Bingo.

 

[Data Holmes]

^Yes. Correct. Bingo.

hell. windows mobile is far from open, and they have even opened a windows mobile store for apps similar to the itunes app store model, with numerous people in the tech press drawing comparisons.


What was that he was saying about Windows being open system again.

 

[sojourner]

^I didn't.