The sensor reading that came back that Kirk heard was about a "lightning storm in space", previously described 25 years prior by the Kelvin as a description of the red matter black hole they found Nero's ship emerging from.
However, there was no black hole created at Vulcan until after Enterprise arrived, after the fight on the mining rig, and after Nero dropped the red matter into Vulcan's core.
Chekov's ship-wide announcement and his line describing a lightning storm in space, the pivotal line of dialog that Kirk used to add two and two together, should not have even happened, because at that point in the movie, the only possible information, even if communications was crystal clear, was that there was a big ship shooting a mining beam into the planet.