Fiddling amid the rising flames: The future of automobiles

[Dusty Ayres]

Seeing as this forum is about the future, I decided to post this story about the Canadian International AutoShow and what people think about the role of the car in it:

So many jobs around here, directly and indirectly, depend on the car industry that if you live in Southern Ontario, taking a trip to the Canadian International AutoShow can be like going to a giant indoor company picnic. This was even more true where I grew up. Down in Windsor in the ’80s and ’90s, the yearly trip to the Detroit Autoshow was a very big deal. Many of our parents worked at one of the Big Three, our straight teeth — known as the “Buzz Hargrove Smile” — were the result of generous benefit packages, and deep employee discounts meant the cars viewed at the show would likely end up in our driveways.

The irresistible lure of $20- to $30-an-hour jobs at the factories kept many Windsor kids out of university and got them into home-ownership before age 25. The AutoShow was the shiny Oscar-like event that represented it all.

Moving to Toronto meant giving up a lifestyle where I drove at least 50km every day, zigzagging around the city in a car that I nearly lived in. Now I edit a magazine (Spacing) devoted to all things antithetical to car culture; I make part of my living writing about pedestrian activities; I will, sometimes, ride a bike across the city in rain or snow. Though the shift was welcome and liberating, the change is radical.

The Toronto show opened last Friday (it runs until Feb. 24), just days after General Motors announced a record-breaking US$38.7 billion in losses this past year. This announcement, coupled with the car increasingly being vilified by urban planners, peak oil crusaders and environmentalists (all of whom suggest at various degrees of amplification that the end is nigh for the automobile) had me wondering if the AutoShow still beats the drum of oblivious and happy progress that it did the last time I attended a show, sometime during the late-Mulroney era.

http://www.eyeweekly.com/city/features/article/18711

 

[FordSVT]

I went to the show, it was packed. People still have to spend a significant amount of time in their vehicles and they are still interested in cars. Personally, I even look at them as art. Enough doom and gloom already.

 

[Trajet]

I hardly think the end is nigh for the automobile in any real sense. It might be true that the era of profligate 10mpg SUV's and 7.0 litre V8 muscle cars will soon be coming to an end, but there's always going to be a need for personal transport, especially in countries like the UK where public transport is so badly organised and inefficient it's practically useless for a large section of the working population.

I see the future of the automobile (at least in the short-medium term) being in the form of cars powered by small, efficient, turbocharged petrol (pioneered by the likes of VW and Fiat) and diesel engines. These manage to provide the CO2 benefits of hybrid vehicles like the Toyota Prius (or even exceed them in the case of vehicles like the MINI Cooper Diesel with it's piffling CO2 output of 104g/km) without any of the environmental and energy costs associated with the manufacturing of the batteries for the drivetrain.

 

[Meredith]

There are always openings for work at the Toyota and Nissan Plants that operate in the US and Canada.

 

[Dusty Ayres]

I hardly think the end is nigh for the automobile in any real sense. It might be true that the era of profligate 10mpg SUV's and 7.0 litre V8 muscle cars will soon be coming to an end, but there's always going to be a need for personal transport, especially in countries like the UK where public transport is so badly organized and inefficient it's practically useless for a large section of the working population.

Except that a growing number of people are bitching about what come out of an automobile, and the auto companies aren't really doing anything to make them emit less other than Toyota's making the Prius car. The Big Three in North America should really get cracking and start to make the hydrogen fuel cell cars a reality, before climate change forces local governments to start banning the car in certain parts of a city, or outright. But all they're doing is producing gas guzzling muscle cars and slightly smaller SUV's because of the criticism that they got in the '90's for being unsafe and gas guzzling, thereby making the point of this article's writer. If they don't want any more bitching, they should do what they're supposed to do and come out with the aforementioned low emission cars/trucks/vans; as it is, all they're doing is forestalling the inevitable and possibly making the takeover of governments by Green parties possible-and the Greens hate cars with a passion.

There are always openings for work at the Toyota and Nissan Plants that operate in the US and Canada.

Except that none of these plants is in Toronto or Oshawa, where the need for jobs is truly greatest. And Toronto needs a manufacturing plant, or plants, badly.

 

[Trajet]

If they don't want any more bitching, they should do what they're supposed to do and come out with the aforementioned low emission cars/trucks/vans; as it is, all they're doing is forestalling the inevitable and possibly making the takeover of governments by Green parties possible-and the Greens hate cars with a passion.

Will the introduction of low emission cars and vans sourced from GM and Ford's European divisions (Saturn Astra, Ford Fiesta & Transit Connect) really have that much of an impact on the US appetite for large gas guzzlers? The reason we mainly drive small, fuel efficient cars in Europe (and particularly in the UK) is because the price of fuel is almost prohibitively expensive, so running a small-medium sized car with a small, fuel efficient and low polluting engine is really the only cost-effective way to run a car for someone on a normal income.

As long as US petrol prices are little over a third what they are in the UK, I don't see fuel efficiency being much of a driving force in the US car market. There's also the difference in mindset and expectations to consider, even in cars that engine excepted, are largely similar in the US and EU. Take for instance the Saturn Aura and Vauxhall Vectra - two cars based on the same mechanicals, and largely identical in dimensions, yet the average engine size for a Vectra is a 1.8 litre 4 cylinder, while the Aura is available with a 3.6 V6. Even the Saturn Astra, which is absolutely identical to its European relative, is only available with what we'd consider to be the largest and least efficient engines in the Astra line up - the 1.8 and 2.0 litre petrol units.

 

[Mallory]

Except that a growing number of people are bitching about what come out of an automobile, and the auto companies aren't really doing anything to make them emit less other than Toyota's making the Prius car.

The Big Three already offer a number of hybrid and high-mileage alternatives. And until that "growing number of people" start buying more hybrid and high-mileage vehicles than the rest of the populace things are not going to change. Manufacturers are going to produce products that the market demands, not what is environmentally friendly. The change has to occur through demand and can't be forced down the public's throat.

...before climate change forces local governments to start banning the car in certain parts of a city, or outright.

That will never happen on any kind of large scale simply because there is no replacement available for the individual vehicle at the moment. Most cities in the US lack any kind of viable mass transit system. And mass transit is a government operation that generally requires an increase in taxes to pay for construction and operation. No one likes a tax increase and any politician who supports one is taking a chance.

...and possibly making the takeover of governments by Green parties possible-and the Greens hate cars with a passion.

The Greens? Not like in the United States, at least for the forseeable future. The current powers are too firmly entrenched to allow for the growth of any legitimate third-party movement.

 

[USS KG5]

Except that a growing number of people are bitching about what come out of an automobile, and the auto companies aren't really doing anything to make them emit less other than Toyota's making the Prius car.

My VW Golf 2.0 TDi gives great mileage, is comfortable for the hour + a day I soend in it and goes like stink compared to a lot of hungrier cars.

The new 1.4 TSI petrol engines develop 170PS, from an economical 1.4!!

Don't diss the car companies - they are trying to boost economy but not frak up their business at the same time. People like cars, they like their own personal comfortable space, and they like zooming around - that is not going to change.

What is necessary is for technology to be applied to the cars (which is happening) to make the most of the fuel they use.

What about the Ford CDTi engines, or the Honda diesels? These do very good mileage as well.

As havs been stated, 10mpg SUVs and V8 muscle cars probably have to be given the heave-ho, but in Europe and Japan manufacturers have made an effort to make money and increase economy, and legislation is also being brought in to supply an extra nudge...

 

[zephramc]

^^^Most of the cars you mentioned aren't available to us SUV lovin' Americans.

We will be getting the VW Jetta TDI (2.0L turbo diesel) this summer, and we have a few larger displacement diesels such as the V6 Mercedes-Benz E-class and the V10 diesel in the VW Touareg, and last but not least the I6 Cummins or V8s in the 3/4 ton (and larger pickups/trucks). Most of these engines with the exception of the VW and the MB get at best 18mpg.

For the most part our choices in efficient cars are limited to small displacement gasoline engines, or gasoline/electric hybrids.

I personally believe the diesels will be catching on quick over here though. Hopefully in another 5 years we'll have a larger selection of efficient vehicles to choose from.

 

[USS KG5]

I hope that the USA does not turn its back on the new TSI's just because they are only 1.4s.

The Jetta you mention has the same engine as my Golf - it is a fine engine, I am sure you will enjoy your new car.

 

[zephramc]

I hope that the USA does not turn its back on the new TSI's just because they are only 1.4s.

The Jetta you mention has the same engine as my Golf - it is a fine engine, I am sure you will enjoy your new car.

Oops... sorry... I meant we as Americans, not we as in my family and I, though I am seriously considering buying a 2004-2005 VW Passat diesel (the last years VW shipped the diesel Passat to the US). I'm just not sure if I want to shell out the cash and/or get involved with a car payment, as my 10yo Toyota 4Runner has many good years and miles left in her.

I think diesels still have a bit of a stigma here. For one, when people think diesels, they typically think of the 10+ year old semi trucks puking out black smoke and stinking to high heaven (the newer trucks are far better in regard to emissions and stench). Second, many people think of diesels as unreliable, thanks to US auto manufacturers in the 70's and 80's (namely GM, who converted their gasoline small block V8 into a diesel). The small block gasoline engines weren't designed to handle the higher compression inherent to diesels and were breaking down "left and right".

That being said, I think $4-5 gasoline is going to change alot of people's minds about what cars they buy and drive. I've already calculated that $5.00/gallon will be the point at which it's financially sensible to get rid of the Toyota and buy a newer, more fuel efficient car (hopefully a 40+ mpg diesel).

 

[USS KG5]

That being said, I think $4-5 gasoline is going to change alot of people's minds about what cars they buy and drive. I've already calculated that $5.00/gallon will be the point at which it's financially sensible to get rid of the Toyota and buy a newer, more fuel efficient car (hopefully a 40+ mpg diesel).

Try the $12-15 a gallon we already pay here in the UK for size - there is no expletive created to cover my opinion of that!

 

[FordSVT]

That being said, I think $4-5 gasoline is going to change alot of people's minds about what cars they buy and drive. I've already calculated that $5.00/gallon will be the point at which it's financially sensible to get rid of the Toyota and buy a newer, more fuel efficient car (hopefully a 40+ mpg diesel).

Try the $12-15 a gallon we already pay here in the UK for size - there is no expletive created to cover my opinion of that!

Sorry, but you do not pay $12-15 USD per gallon in the UK.

105 pence per litre is the average price of fuel as of Feb 28th in Britain, which is about $7.75 USD a gallon. And Brits and Europeans already have embraced smaller, more fuel efficient cars, they drive half as many kms per year as the average American, there are fewer cars per person in Europe, and they are more likely to use trains and public transportation as Americans. Obviously, the density and size of Europe has a lot to do with things.

 

[USS KG5]

Sorry, but you do not pay $12-15 USD per gallon in the UK.

Well I was exaggerating a bit - though with the way the prices are rising currently we very soon will be.

And Brits and Europeans already have embraced smaller, more fuel efficient cars,

We never embraced the huge gas guzzling cars that Americans seem to love quite as enthusiastically anyhow - but as I was saying upthread European manufacturers are getting very good.

That said Japanese and American car companies are also getting there - the Ford diesel engines are highly regarded when talking economy.

They drive half as many kms per year as the average American, there are fewer cars per person in Europe, and they are more likely to use trains and public transportation as Americans. Obviously, the density and size of Europe has a lot to do with things.

Try to remember the difference between Britain and Europe - in the main public transport in the UK is very poor.

 

[Deleted 2]

And public transport in continental Europe isnt!?

 

[Trajet]

And public transport in continental Europe isnt!?

Compared to public transport in the UK, public transport on the Continent is in a completely different world, with buses and trains that occassionally manage to run on time and at a competetive price, two factors you'd be hard pushed to find anywhere within Britain's appalling public transport infrastructure.

 

[USS KG5]

And public transport in continental Europe isnt!?

Compared to public transport in the UK, public transport on the Continent is in a completely different world, with buses and trains that occassionally manage to run on time and at a competetive price, two factors you'd be hard pushed to find anywhere within Britain's appalling public transport infrastructure.

Example: Britains railways are supposed to increase ticket revenue by 80% over the next few years - while providing precisely nothing in increased benefits in the meantime, in fact services are twisted to meet targets which bear little relevance to real performance.

 

[Dusty Ayres]

And public transport in continental Europe isnt!?

Compared to public transport in the UK, public transport on the Continent is in a completely different world, with buses and trains that occassionally manage to run on time and at a competetive price, two factors you'd be hard pushed to find anywhere within Britain's appalling public transport infrastructure.

Example: Britains railways are supposed to increase ticket revenue by 80% over the next few years - while providing precisely nothing in increased benefits in the meantime, in fact services are twisted to meet targets which bear little relevance to real performance.

If this is all true, then why did the mayor of London ban cars on certain main streets, and introduce a toll for cars (essentially, a carbon tax) entering the city center? Seems that the mayor is being very ecologically minded, and is making cars scarce, and other mayors in England are doing the same despite the awfulness of public transit.

 

[Dusty Ayres]

And public transport in continental Europe isnt!?

Compared to public transport in the UK, public transport on the Continent is in a completely different world, with buses and trains that occassionally manage to run on time and at a competetive price, two factors you'd be hard pushed to find anywhere within Britain's appalling public transport infrastructure.

Example: Britains railways are supposed to increase ticket revenue by 80% over the next few years - while providing precisely nothing in increased benefits in the meantime, in fact services are twisted to meet targets which bear little relevance to real performance.

Example: Britains railways are supposed to increase ticket revenue by 80% over the next few years - while providing precisely nothing in increased benefits in the meantime, in fact services are twisted to meet targets which bear little relevance to real performance.[/quote]

If this is all true, then why did the mayor of London ban cars on certain main streets, and introduce a toll for cars (essentially, a carbon tax) entering the city center? Seems that the mayor is being very ecologically minded, and is making cars scarce, and other mayors in England are doing the same despite the awfulness of public transit.

The Greens? Not like in the United States, at least for the forseeable future. The current powers are too firmly entrenched to allow for the growth of any legitimate third-party movement.

The Greens are winning elections at the local level (city and state) in some parts of the U.S of A,and their influence on the Democratic party is in fact, somewhat substantial-enough to scare the Dems into doing something about Kyoto, apparently.

Here's one story about a Green Party candidate's record-tying eighth two-year term win in the November 2007 city election in New Haven, Connecticut: [i Mayor Sails To Victory; A Green Wins, Too[/i]

 

[USS KG5]

If this is all true, then why did the mayor of London ban cars on certain main streets, and introduce a toll for cars (essentially, a carbon tax) entering the city center? Seems that the mayor is being very ecologically minded, and is making cars scarce, and other mayors in England are doing the same despite the awfulness of public transit.

London is one of the few places in England where you can get around by public transport - a similar charge in some other cities might not go down so well, and schemes like new tram systems are getting turned down because of costs. That said the London Underground system is seriously in need of massive investment - and the public/private partnership set up to manage this has just disastrously folded leaving taxpayers with a massive bill.

In essence we get the stick of charging, high fuel costs and taxation but not the carrot of a decent, nationwide public transport system.