Empire's Star Trek Box Office Prediction
- Thread starter Trajet
- Start date
This film will need the kind of legs Batman Begins got after overcoming the foul aftertaste the last couple movies left in the mouths of general audiences in that franchise. Good word of mouth should help propel ticket sales beyond the existing fanbase and make Trek palatable to casual fans and newbies alike.
Why would you say something like that without knowing it? I lived in Brazil for 15 years (and yes, it can be called "Third World") and I watched Generations, FC and INS at the cinema. And I wasn't the only one there.
So... facts please, not speculation. Lots of South Americans love scifi. We should definitely count them in!
The more action-oriented the film is, the better the box office in non-English speaking countries is likely to be. One of the things which has limited the appeal of Trek overseas at times has been the extent to which it consists of people standing around talking to one another. All of that subtitling or dubbing is easier to tolerate if, in fact, a movie actually has strong adult appeal in terms of characters or story - but for films that are promoted primarily as adventure movies, it's a nuisance.
*wonders whether the Australian Aborigines like Star Trek.*
I know the suburban ones might, native ones have probably never stepped foot inside a brick/concrete building tho
I know the suburban ones might, native ones have probably never stepped foot inside a brick/concrete building tho
If the dollar continues to be low, that will boost the income from foreign markets.
I'll take a guess and say it'll do $300 million worldwide, with about $135 of that in the US.
I'll take a guess and say it'll do $300 million worldwide, with about $135 of that in the US.
Trajet said:
Just caught a glimpse of UK magazine Empire's box office predictions for Star Trek. They're guessing the movie will take in $115 million in the US and $250 million worldwide.
Anyone think this sounds a little bit low for a movie that's already being vigorously promoted more than 11 months before its due to be released? Not to mention the fact that its being directed by JJ Abrams, who definitely seems to be flavour of the month in Hollywood.
I can't help but think a US box office gross of $115 million is a little bit on the pessimistic side - it's not really that much more than the $92 million First Contact managed to rake in at the US box office back in 1996/97, and it's worth remembering that First Contact had nothing like the media interest or marketing buzz that Star Trek seems to be generating.
While I accept that Star Trek is highly unlikely to generate domestic figures in the $250 million+ range like Transformers or I Am Legend, I think a a more realistic forecast for it's box office takings are $140-150 million domestic and around $300 million worldwide.
I'd be interested to hear what other people's opinions on this are!
You're right. $115,000,000 domestically would make it a failure at the domestic box office. Controlling for inflation, it would be the equivalent of if TMP had made only $40,000,000 domestically. Or TVH did only $60,000,000.
Obviously, it will help a lot if the movie is good
, but that combined with it being a tentpole movie for Paramount and being marketed to a broad audience, I don't know why it couldn't gross $250-$275 million in the U.S.
All these numbers are confusing me. Why didn't I pay more attention in maths class.
CommanderRaytas said:
Why would you say something like that without knowing it? I lived in Brazil for 15 years (and yes, it can be called "Third World") and I watched Generations, FC and INS at the cinema. And I wasn't the only one there.
So... facts please, not speculation. Lots of South Americans love scifi. We should definitely count them in!
How many of the poor people in Rio will watch Star Trek? I actually did think of Brazil specifically as a counter example. Eventually I decided that the wide economic divide in those countries means a large percentage can not even watch Star Trek. The offset from people who can't watch Trek in first world countries is probably balanced by people in third world countries. I could recalculate with better figures, but it would take much more time. I think a first-world analysis is good enought for a guesstimate.
The poor people in Rio? Well, actually Brazil is a big market, and despite all the awful things that go on in that country, there are many many people with loads of money... not to mention the relatively wealthy middle class. Besides, there's much more to Brazil (and its culture) than Rio. The south-east and south of the country are pretty rich and developed, you can almost compare it to European standards (almost, mind you).
But I won't argue with you over numbers. I just wanted to say it's unfair to write off countries like Brazil just because they're third world. People over there go to the cinema- a lot. Don't know so much about Comando Vermelho members, people from Barra da Tijuca or what have you. But southers metropoles, like Curitiba, Porto Alegre, Sao Paulo.... there you have your movie goers.
And perhaps my post wasn't meant to be taken all too seriously. So spare yourself the math, okay? I'm sure you got it right.
But I won't argue with you over numbers. I just wanted to say it's unfair to write off countries like Brazil just because they're third world. People over there go to the cinema- a lot. Don't know so much about Comando Vermelho members, people from Barra da Tijuca or what have you. But southers metropoles, like Curitiba, Porto Alegre, Sao Paulo.... there you have your movie goers.
And perhaps my post wasn't meant to be taken all too seriously. So spare yourself the math, okay? I'm sure you got it right.
I remember standing in a long line for one of the Trek movies in Japan. By the time Star Trek XI opens here, if it's a hit in the U.S. it's going to be difficult to get anywhere near the theater in Japan.
Considering the big investment the studio's putting into Star Trek, they must already anticipate taking some of these costs and spreading it over two sequel movies...
The cost of the sets, uniforms, props, etc. are things they won't have to spend again for XII and XIII.
The cost of the sets, uniforms, props, etc. are things they won't have to spend again for XII and XIII.
I think it actually could make a good amount of money, depending on if it's good or not. If they are already advertising for a movie that won't be coming out for another 11 months (unusual) then can you imagine how much they will be advertising 2 months before the movie??????
If the movie is good, and the promotions are good, it could make some really good money, like at a max of 500 million worldwide if they got really lucky.
If the movie is good, and the promotions are good, it could make some really good money, like at a max of 500 million worldwide if they got really lucky.
A
Avilos
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Ayone else concerned that Cloverfield after having a strong opening weekend, fueled by internet buzz, is now dropping like a rock at the Box Office? I am not sure that this new Star Trek is getting much attention outside the usual genre media outlets. But most Trek fans have tunnel vision and think this is everyone. (By the way I am looking forward to the film myself. But I am a realistic about its crossover appeal)
I don't agree with your reasoning.
My understanding is that generally the studio will end up with around 50% or so (maybe a little higher, since there's a sliding scale involved and studios get a higher percentage during the first few weeks of release) of the box office take. If that's right, $400 million would probably close to right to recover production and marketing costs. However, the box office is not the only revenue stream in a movie's life cycle anymore. When you factor in revenues from pay-per-view and DVD (the big cash cow these days), I suspect Paramount will have a very nice profit if Star Trek brings in $250-$300 million worldwide, which is a very acheivable number if it's a good movie.
