Egypt

[Jadzia]

We haven't had a thread in Misc about this. So here you are, to discuss the fate of the nation.

Tonight we've heard that Mubarak will not step down until September, and hasn't made any solid promises to his people.


I've had a couple of conversations with friends over the past week about this civil uprising. And a few thoughts and opinions were brought up which I've been mulling over.

It's often said that whenever there is conflict, the truth is the first thing to become distorted. I wonder how that sentiment applies to the current situation.


The first argument that came up is that it is the west who are pushing for democracy. As far as I know, the Egyptian people haven't expressed strongly that to be their goal. What we hear from them is only that some want to be rid of their current dictator. Do the people in the middle east want to be governed by democracy, or are they most comfortable with powerful leaders, and the Egyptian people simply want a new one who treats them better, and not necessarily one who is elected? The middle east nations perceive politics and government differently to us in the west.


Then a question: Do a majority of Egyptians want rid of Mubarak? Or are these protesters actually a minority of the nation? Is the media focusing on their voices and we're led to believe that they are the voice of the majority?


Next question: Is the Egyptian military united in their support of the protesters? Or could there be split loyalties, and we're not really seeing that?


My own thought from the recent speech, is Mabarak playing for time? Does he have a stronger hand that we're led to believe? Perhaps if some of the military are on his side, he's is waiting for the dust to settle a bit, thinking that now it is not the right time to quell the uprising.

 

[Stoek]

The first argument that came up is that it is the west who are pushing for democracy. As far as I know, the Egyptian people haven't expressed strongly that to be their goal. What we hear from them is only that some want to be rid of their current dictator. Do the people in the middle east want to be governed by democracy, or are they most comfortable with powerful leaders, and the Egyptian people simply want a new one who treats them better, and not necessarily one who is elected? The middle east nations perceive politics and government differently to us in the west.

This is an interesting point. However if the Egyptians do not want "democracy" then there is little logic to their actions. Simply exchanging one unelected leader for another who "may" be kinder with no system of redress is frankly lunacy. It would be a bit like insisting that one wishes to travel over land, faster than on foot, faster than on horse, faster than on bike, faster than by car. But not by train.

 

[Alidar Jarok]

Generally speaking, the majority of any population group isn't active about a cause. It's clear that the protesters are asking for democracy and it's also clear that they aren't some insignificant fringe minority. I can't say anything else with certainty, but that's not bad all things considered.

 

[Nowhere Man]

I can't speak for the Egyptains, but I can speak as an American who takes interest in this situation. I think the people of Egypt should cary this thing out to whatever conclusion it leads to. The United States has no business telling the Egyptians what to do, we should not support any dictators ever. The only reason we do is for oil and our own interests, this is wrong. The guy only supports us because we pay him to, this is also wrong. We don't support Castro, Kim Jung Ill or the guy from Iran(I won't pretend to be able to spell his name). Why don't we support these people? Because they have nothing for us or because they don't accept our money. We should support the Egyptian people no matter what, it is up to them what they decide. I want us to stop sending money over sea's and I want us to stop bieng the police of the world. We have people suffering in this country and our own people should always come first,

 

[RJDiogenes]

Well, certainly the protesters want Democracy-- they wouldn't be protesting if they didn't want a say in their government.

Obviously, freedom for any nation is always a good thing, but it will be a double-edged sword in the Middle East even more than it is in the United States; their religious fanatics are far worse than our religious fanatics.

 

[bigdaddy]

The military needs to shot the president, VP and Prime Minister in the head and be done with this.

their religious fanatics are far worse than our religious fanatics.

That's debatable.

 

[TheBrew]

Wow, I guess he might have actually resigned this time!

 

[Nowhere Man]

Let'sjust hope they pick a good leader. I hope this is the begining of a wildfire that will spread across the whole region. These people need freedom as much as I need oxygen.

 

[marillion]

There are going to be a lot of growing pains for sure and the military is going to have its hands full while groups jocky for position and the pieces continue to fall (either in or out of place)...

Sadly, something in the back of my tiny little brain tells me that the people - using the broad definition here - could end up being as displeased with what ends up filling the void created by Mubarak's hasty skidaddle... There's a lot of baggage that comes with 30 years of rule by one person, and that baggage is going to take some serious sorting through...

 

[bigdaddy]

Wow, I guess he might have actually resigned this time!

We shall see.

Just to be clear I'm rolling my eyes at the (former?) president of Egypt and not you.

There are going to be a lot of growing pains for sure and the military is going to have its hands full while groups jocky for position and the pieces continue to fall (either in or out of place)...

Why don't you think that the military would mind that? Why does everyone think the military is on the side of the people? The military can go "I like this power!" and not give it up.

 

[marillion]

Oh, i'm not saying they're on one side or another.. I'm just saying that while the various factions line up for their slice of the political pie, there's bound to be some unrest and violence that will keep the military busy...

You're absolutely right.. The military can just take over everything for the sake of "keeping the peace" and never yeild that power.

 

[Jadzia]

To me, the fear is if the void becomes filled with chaos. Militant group could see this as a great opportunity to expand their sphere of influence, and they could collectively put the army under a lot of strain, spreading them wide and thin. In that situation, it may not be possible for the army to yield power for quite some time.

In the ensuing bid to undermine the army's hold of power, these militant groups may turn to terrorism, with the aim of creating instability. The obvious strategic location is the Suez, as whoever controls that, or succeeds in creating instability in that area, will have their hands around the throat of Europe.

 

[Subcommander R.]

1. The lack of organization and leadership for the protests indicates that there is a deeply rooted democratic sentiment. The fact that opposition groups have long decried the phony elections also shows popular support for a true democracy.
2. The military has taken over on an intermediate basis, and given their popularity among Egyptians that promises to prevent chaos until September, or possibly sooner if elections are pushed up.
3. Given Mubarak's sudden reversal (just last night he adamantly refused to step down), it seems likely the military quietly told him to get out of the office. That, and the mass resignations, will likely serve to keep him and his cronies out of power.
4. The role of the military: they've played it pretty neutral so far, and I have no reason to doubt that they'll continue to do so.
5. Islamists: In the west there is an idiotic school of thought that equates Islamism with terrorism. That is not the case. The Muslim Brotherhood renounced all violence in 1977 IIRC. It is not listed as a terror organization by the US State Department, and the US Director of National Intelligence does not consider them a problem. Heck, take it straight from the horse's mouth what they want:
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/10/o...l=1&adxnnlx=1297450887-tMkjCHRRhAma6IPFtA7Ebg

 

[bigdaddy]

5. Islamists: In the west there is an idiotic school of thought that equates Islamism with terrorism. That is not the case. The Muslim Brotherhood renounced all violence in 1977 IIRC. It is not listed as a terror organization by the US State Department, and the US Director of National Intelligence does not consider them a problem.

Yeah Americans seem to think, as a hole if you are muslim than you are a a terrorist, there are two billion terrorists then.

It's why the USA seemed slow to act on this, because they are living in "the devil we know" phase. Why we sold the dictator weapons is beyond me, but that was pretty stupid.

We should be for freedom for all, even if we don't like what happens.

 

[Holdfast]

Wow, I guess he might have actually resigned this time!

Funniest comment I've read today. Genuinely had to be careful not to spit my drink out.

 

[Nowhere Man]

I don't know, something inside me is making feel very optimistic about this. I understand the concerns, but a lot of these people seem to be praising Obama's actions. This indicates that will not stand for anything less than true freedom and democracy. This is suprisinging to me because I have not liked the way Obama has handled this situation. I thought he should have came out hard core against Mubarack and hard core for the people. If the Egyptains are happy with Obama, then so be it, I'll take it. It's good to see at least some people still like us. Not that others don't have good reason to not like some of the shit we do.

 

[Mysterion]

Dear Egypt -

Congratulations on gaining your freedom. Use it wisely, and don't let go of it.

 

[Asbo Zaprudder]

So Mubarak is no longer in de Nile?

 

[Holdfast]

So Mubarak is no longer in de Nile?

Now tell me, when did you think to apply that gag to this situation, and how long have you been waiting to deploy it?

 

[Asbo Zaprudder]

So Mubarak is no longer in de Nile?

Now tell me, when did you think to apply that gag to this situation, and how long have you been waiting to deploy it?

I've been waiting to slip that joke in pharaoh long time.