Eccentricities in the Chain of Command for POTUS

[USS Triumphant]

A few things that a friend and I were discussing today at lunch. If any of our assumptions are flawed, please correct me and provide a reference if possible. Also, if you've got any other weird succession scenarios like these, please throw 'em out here for us.

If, immediately after Joe Biden took the oath as Vice President, George W. Bush had fallen dead, and the D.C. Medical Examiner (who was probably in attendance) rushed over and declared him dead, Joe Biden would have been POTUS, filling the remaining minutes of Bush's term. Then at noon, Obama would have become President.

If, at one of the gatherings after the Inauguration, something had suddenly killed Obama, Biden, Pelosi, and Robert Byrd, the authority of the Presidency would have fallen on ... Condi Rice. Hillary Clinton was not made Secretary of State until late today.

Wacky, wild schtuff.

 

[JonathonWally]

I believe according to the official clock, Biden took his VP oath after Noon, therefore, Obama was already president, even before he took the oath. The change-over happened at noon oath or not.

 

[Data Holmes]

They both assumed their positions as 12:00 noon. They just cannot execute the powers which come with the position until they perform the oath... At least that's how it was spoken about yesterday.

 

[Augustus]

Well regarding your second scenario, I know there was a "designate successor" who was Secretary Gates. He was removed from Washington and kept in a secret location if something were to wipe out the current chain of command. I imagine that before Condi would have gotten it, it would have gone to Gates, but that is just a guess.

 

[Skywalker]

Well regarding your second scenario, I know there was a "designate successor" who was Secretary Gates. He was removed from Washington and kept in a secret location if something were to wipe out the current chain of command. I imagine that before Condi would have gotten it, it would have gone to Gates, but that is just a guess.

I thought the Secretary of State was higher on the totem pole than the Secretary of Defense.

 

[Augustus]

Probably is, but I know for inauguration day, both administrations agree on one government official to be the "designate successor" in case of the chain of command being destroyed. I take that to mean all appointed government officials. Since in this scenario, all of Bush's people would be relieved and Obama's people not yet confirmed, I would assume it would fall to the designate, but not sure..

 

[Data Holmes]

Probably is, but I know for inauguration day, both administrations agree on one government official to be the "designate successor" in case of the chain of command being destroyed. I take that to mean all appointed government officials. Since in this scenario, all of Bush's people would be relieved and Obama's people not yet confirmed, I would assume it would fall to the designate, but not sure..

The DS is simply the continuity of government plan, in case someone were to attack such a gathering that someone, anyone, from the line be kept away and secure.

That doesn't mean he takes over if something happens to just the pres.

 

[Maestro]

It would have been Gates, because at noon, Condi Rice ceased to be SecState. Gates was not relieved of his duties at the conclusion of the Bush Administration.

Also, Michael Chertoff would have factored in, albeit at the bottom of the totem, as he was responsible for overseeing the total security of the event. I don't know when, specifically, he was relieved of his duties as SecHomeland, but I'm reasonably sure that it was not at Noon.

Gates was the logical choice, because he was the only person to serve in Bush's Cabinet and Obama's, therefore, he was never relieved.

 

[Augustus]

Probably is, but I know for inauguration day, both administrations agree on one government official to be the "designate successor" in case of the chain of command being destroyed. I take that to mean all appointed government officials. Since in this scenario, all of Bush's people would be relieved and Obama's people not yet confirmed, I would assume it would fall to the designate, but not sure..

The DS is simply the continuity of government plan, in case someone were to attack such a gathering that someone, anyone, from the line be kept away and secure.

That doesn't mean he takes over if something happens to just the pres.

True, but in the above scenario, it wasn't just Obama, but obama all the way down to Sen. Byrd.

 

[captcalhoun]

if Dale Brown's novels are right, Obama was sworn in before he even went to the inaugeration AND THEN got sworn in publicly. it's a security thing.

 

[USS Triumphant]

I found out something interesting that I didn't hear mentioned anywhere on the news regarding my second scenario, and I thought I'd share since it's kind of a neat solution.

SecDef Robert Gates was actually the next in line, because Condi Rice and Hank Paulson both resigned before the Inauguration, leaving Undersecretaries as Acting SecState and Acting SecFinance. The legal rules of succession pass over officers who are acting, and have not been confirmed by the Senate.

It looks like the rest of the officers down the line below Gates followed suit - all of the offices below him are now filled with Obama appointees that have already been confirmed (SecInt, SecAg, SecEnergy, SecEd, SecVet, and SecHome), or Undersecretaries in an Acting capacity.

 

[the 4th hanson bro]

Also, Michael Chertoff would have factored in, albeit at the bottom of the totem, as he was responsible for overseeing the total security of the event.

Great, would have had Skeletor in charge.

I don't know when, specifically, he was relieved of his duties as SecHomeland, but I'm reasonably sure that it was not at Noon.

9am CST on Jan 21, a day that was celebrated with great enthusiasm on the frequent flyer board I frequent.

 

[Mallory]

I was pretty sure I read somewhere that he'd be staying on the job through the inauguration. Thanks for the confirmation.

 

[chrisspringob]

I found out something interesting that I didn't hear mentioned anywhere on the news regarding my second scenario, and I thought I'd share since it's kind of a neat solution.

SecDef Robert Gates was actually the next in line, because Condi Rice and Hank Paulson both resigned before the Inauguration, leaving Undersecretaries as Acting SecState and Acting SecFinance. The legal rules of succession pass over officers who are acting, and have not been confirmed by the Senate.

What if Rice *hadn't* bothered to resign ahead of time? Does she automatically lose her job at noon of inauguration day? Or would she still be SoS until Clinton is confirmed?

And Clinton wasn't confirmed until Jan. 21st, so what if Rice hadn't resigned and, some time in the evening of Jan. 20th, Obama, Biden, Pelosi, and Byrd all drop dead? If Rice is still technically SoS at that point, does she then get sworn in as president, and (if she wants to) serves out Obama's entire 4 year term? That would be a really crazy outcome.

 

[Maestro]

If Sec. Rice were still in her position at the time of said "expiration" of those ahead in the line of Succession, I would think she would take over, however, there would be a major legal battle on both sides about it.

Weird stuff.

 

[chrisspringob]

If Sec. Rice were still in her position at the time of said "expiration" of those ahead in the line of Succession, I would think she would take over, however, there would be a major legal battle on both sides about it.

If this were to actually happen in real life, I doubt Rice would fight it. She doesn't strike me as the kind that's so powerhungry that she would want to try to govern the country under such circumstances, where she's handed the presidency on a technicality, right after a decisive election win for the other party. (Can you imagine the backlash if she did try to fight it though? It would make the 2000 recounts look like.....uh.....a really minor squabble.)

What would probably happen is that she would be sworn in as president, and then, as soon as the House elects a new Speaker, Rice resigns, and the House Speaker takes over as president. If I'm not mistaken, the House doesn't actually have to elect a member of the House as speaker. They could actually pick anyone they want. So they could go with Hillary Clinton or Mark Warner or whoever they want to serve out Obama's term as president.

 

[Squiggy]

If Sec. Rice were still in her position at the time of said "expiration" of those ahead in the line of Succession, I would think she would take over, however, there would be a major legal battle on both sides about it.

Weird stuff.

Everything I've heard is that the resignations are effective at the end of the President's term (11:59:59 AM Eastern, 1/20). That's when the former Administrator of NASA Mike Griffin told everyone he was officially "off duty".

 

[Maestro]

Except for Chertoff whose resignation didn't become effective until 1/21, and Gates who hasn't resigned.

 

[chrisspringob]

If Sec. Rice were still in her position at the time of said "expiration" of those ahead in the line of Succession, I would think she would take over, however, there would be a major legal battle on both sides about it.

Weird stuff.

Everything I've heard is that the resignations are effective at the end of the President's term (11:59:59 AM Eastern, 1/20). That's when the former Administrator of NASA Mike Griffin told everyone he was officially "off duty".

But is that only for people who are actually bothering to resign? The question is, if a cabinet secretary does not take the active step of saying "I will resign on Jan. 20th", are they technically still on the job until the new person is sworn in? Because everything I've read on the Bob Gates situation is that there are no new confirmation hearings on him, and the Senate doesn't have to re-approve the appointment. He just continues on as SecDef until such a day as Obama decides to appoint someone else.

 

[Squiggy]

I'd guess that's the case. I think it's smart to have the Sec of Homeland Security on the job over the transition just in case. And you're correct that sitting secretaries don't have to be reconfirmed.