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Cosmos - With Neil deGrasse Tyson

I also love "likely"... very scientific, epsiecially after NDT told us not to watch the dog.
As a matter of fact, using a word such as, "likely" is entirely scientific. If you read the Technical Summary of the IPCC report, there's a whole page on the "Treatment of Uncertainty." As NDT himself put it, scientists aren't afraid of admitting the limits of their knowledge, as well as the certainty of their deductions.
 
I also love "likely"... very scientific, epsiecially after NDT told us not to watch the dog.
As a matter of fact, using a word such as, "likely" is entirely scientific. If you read the Technical Summary of the IPCC report, there's a whole page on the "Treatment of Uncertainty." As NDT himself put it, scientists aren't afraid of admitting the limits of their knowledge, as well as the certainty of their deductions.

Sure you don't mean "delusions"?
 
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Here's a thought: If we installed those solar-collector roadways, then maybe we could redesign cars so that they could draw power from the roads themselves by induction -- sort of like how streetcars draw power from overhead cables, but more advanced. Of course some kinds of vehicle would still need onboard power sources for going offroad or driving on roads that hadn't been solar-converted, but once most roads have been converted, it would be doable, at least for things like buses that followed standardized routes.

I think we need to give up on the solar roadway idea. The couple that posted the video have already made $2 million dollars from it from crowd sourcing, which is pretty good for what amounts to a scam.

Among the many unworkable problems for solar roadways is that solar cells require good light transmission to operate effectively, and good light transmission requires a pretty transparent, and therefore optically smooth, surface. When optically smooth surfaces get wet, they get very slick, which is why a mopped floor gets a sign that says "Caution: wet floor!", but sidewalks and roads don't.

The coefficient of friction of rubber on things like glass, ceramics, and plastics is well studied because it's very important for windshield wiper blades and the innumerable lawsuits from people slipping on wet floors. If you make a roadway out of glass or plastic and it rains, cars are going to be sliding all over the place because the coefficient of friction can drop as low as 0.05. That would result in skyrocketing deaths and injuries and the victims will sue the solar roadway firm out of existence.

As for the idea that the solar roadway could use the sun's energy (at about 20% efficiency) to heat itself to melt snow and ice, scientists at Exxon have developed something even better, which they call Advanced Solar-Photon High-Absorptivity Layable Tarmac, which converts incident solar energy to heat at up to 90 percent efficiency, and requires no underground corrosion-proof electrical connectors. In areas of frequent snow and ice accumulation, this new ASPHALT material should prove far superior to photovoltaics.
 
^ See, now that is unscientific. In a thread about science, it's a shame to see such an obtuse post. :)

The truth does come off as insensitive and annoying to the who are delusional.

What truth are you referring to, though? The truth that there are scientific deductions, of varying degrees of certainty, made as a result of voluminous evidence, as presented in the IPCC? Or some other ignorant version of the truth which, by definition, ignores most of the evidence simply to cast doubt on the deductions to the point of calling the deductions, "delusions" - as well as the scientists who make them (and the people who agree with them) "delusional"?
 
^ See, now that is unscientific. In a thread about science, it's a shame to see such an obtuse post. :)

The truth does come off as insensitive and annoying to the who are delusional.

What truth are you referring to, though? The truth that there are scientific deductions, of varying degrees of certainty, made as a result of voluminous evidence, as presented in the IPCC? Or some other ignorant version of the truth which, by definition, ignores most of the evidence simply to cast doubt on the deductions to the point of calling the deductions, "delusions" - as well as the scientists who make them (and the people who agree with them) "delusional"?

Take a valium...

These scientists are no better at predicting the climate than the weather.

I've asked valid questions earlier with no response but blah, blah.

Ignorant?

You really trust the "Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change"? The same one that falsified and turned away papers because they "didn't fit"?

Fine by me. But history tells us that trusting the government, especially when they are looking for reason to line their pockets isn't a smart thing.

But go ahead.
 
If you have evidence that "truthfully" casts the IPCC data and deductions as "delusions", you're more than welcome to present it - and add it to the already-available data where it will be considered and subjected to scientific review and scrutiny. Otherwise, your statement - that the deductions and the people who agree with them are delusional - was unscientific, hyperbolic, and yes, ignorant of the available data and conclusions.
 
Michael Mann is delusional, frequently ranting that the Koch Brothers are at the head of a vast global conspiracy, claiming in court that he's a Nobel Prize winner, along with claiming that he was exonerated by investigations that didn't even look into him. As Roger Pielke Jr. said, "If Michael Mann did not exist, the skeptics would have to invent him."

Recently Judith Curry, chair of climate science at Georgia Tech, posted:

Richard Feynmann puts it this way: “Science is the organized skepticism in the reliability of expert opinion.”

I anticipate that the unfolding of future decades will reveal the harm done to science by agenda-driven scientists working to enforce a manufactured consensus on anthropogenic global warming and its dangers.

In the meantime, the BS detectors of the public seem to have been triggered. The failure of the climate science establishment to convince the public can be chalked up to communication strategies that come across like propaganda, the intolerance of disagreement (calling opponents deniers), advocacy by scientists, the Climategate shenanigans, Peter Gleick and the Heartland affair, etc.

She frequently writes about or links to scientists talking about the collapse of ethics and integrity in climate science and what can be done to restore it, but also focuses on the "uncertainty monster", which is a wicked problem, along with black swan events and rapid climate change.

Among the many oddball things that separate climate science from science is the fast-and-loose ways that temperature records are handled. The NCDC in Asheville dropped many state historic average temperatures by a full 2C this March. So oddly, if you live in a big city in one of states with the largest adjustments (almost all states had a large downward adjustment), you are probably living a full 4C above pre-industrial temperatures according to the warmists, even though the actually paper thermometer records might show no change at all.

Interestingly, one of the flaws in the National Climate Data Center's automatic adjustment process was earlier addressed in an article in the Journal of Irreproducible Results, in which a scientist carefully measured the grass height around campus and in adjoining neighborhoods to find that contrary to standard plant growth models, grass growth when plotted over time shows a sawtooth wave pattern. The researcher promised to investigate further, and I assume that subsequent attempts to repeat his results would've uncovered the existence of lawn mowers.

In the case of weather station data, plants grow up around the site, slowly and steadily blocking more surface winds and adding a slow positive temperature bias. Then the plants get cut back. The NCDC's automatic adjustment procedure treats the cut back as an anomaly (instead of a return to normal), and splices together the warm-biased signals on either side to form a continually rising temperature curve from the sawtooth waveform created by local environment corrections to keep the station in consistent order. The same thing happens when a station becomes too urbanized and gets moved to a more rural site. The move returns the station to its original baseline signal, but the NCDC procedure undoes the change to pile warming bias on top of warming bias.

Since you can't keep adjusting the modern temperature upwards (we still look at thermometers as a check on the NCDC's frequent and unjustifiable adjustments), the past temperature record has to be adjusted downwards, implying that the people who read the thermometers many decades ago were actually off by 4 or 5 degrees F (and thus legally blind), yet can somehow be trusted to produce aggregate data accurate to a hundredth of a degree.
 
If you have evidence that "truthfully" casts the IPCC data and deductions as "delusions", you're more than welcome to present it - and add it to the already-available data where it will be considered and subjected to scientific review and scrutiny. Otherwise, your statement - that the deductions and the people who agree with them are delusional - was unscientific, hyperbolic, and yes, ignorant of the available data and conclusions.

IPCC AR4 WGII Chapter 10.6.2

Glaciers in the Himalaya are receding faster than in any other part of the world (see Table 10.9) and, if the present rate continues, the likelihood of them disappearing by the year 2035 and perhaps sooner is very high if the Earth keeps warming at the current rate. Its total area will likely shrink from the present 500,000 to 100,000 km2 by the year 2035.

That one's famous. :lol:
 
Except, you missed the qualifier, "if the Earth keeps warming at the current rate." Therefore, it wasn't delusional. Also, thank you for picking an example from the old report, not the new one, which makes the necessary adjustments based on new data - as good scientific deductions must do.

As for the NCDC changes the adjustments were made to be more scientifically accurate because the earlier methods were imprecise:

The GrDD is designed to address the following general issues inherent in the TCDD:

1. For the TCDD, each divisional value from 1931-present is simply the arithmetic average of the station data within it, a computational practice that results in a bias when a division is spatially under sampled in a month (e.g., because some stations did not report) or is climatologically inhomogeneous in general (e.g., due to large variations in topography).

2. For the TCDD, all divisional values before 1931 stem from state averages published by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) rather than from actual station observations, producing an artificial discontinuity in both the mean and variance for 1895-1930 (Guttman and Quayle, 1996).

3. In the TCDD, many divisions experienced a systematic change in average station location and elevation during the 20th Century, resulting in spurious historical trends in some regions (Keim et al., 2003; Keim et al., 2005; Allard et al., 2009).

4. Finally, none of the TCDD’s station-based temperature records contain adjustments for historical changes in observation time, station location, or temperature instrumentation, inhomogeneities which further bias temporal trends (Peterson et al., 1998).”
Source
 
You really trust the "Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change"? The same one that falsified and turned away papers because they "didn't fit"?

Fine by me. But history tells us that trusting the government, especially when they are looking for reason to line their pockets isn't a smart thing.

But go ahead.

Right. Lining their pockets...

Best to depend on the "experts" in the oil and coal industries. I'm sure their motives are pure.

:lol:
 
You really trust the "Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change"? The same one that falsified and turned away papers because they "didn't fit"?

Fine by me. But history tells us that trusting the government, especially when they are looking for reason to line their pockets isn't a smart thing.

But go ahead.

Right. Lining their pockets...

Best to depend on the "experts" in the oil and coal industries. I'm sure their motives are pure.

:lol:
I guess I have to post this again.
juNaA7W.jpg

Although it should be 97% of scientists.
 
Except, you missed the qualifier, "if the Earth keeps warming at the current rate." Therefore, it wasn't delusional. Also, thank you for picking an example from the old report, not the new one, which makes the necessary adjustments based on new data - as good scientific deductions must do.

Surely you realize that the Himalayan glacier fiasco came from a World Wildlife Fund fund raising blurb and had nothing to do with peer-reviewed science? Even the WWF article was based on another popular alarmist article, not peer-reviewed science.

But even the WWF fund raising plea went with Himalayan glaciers disappearing in 2350 AD. The IPCC didn't think that was alarming enough, so they changed it to 2035 AD.

As for the NCDC changes the adjustments were made to be more scientifically accurate because the earlier methods were imprecise:

And you buy that? You've got thousands of station records that say the temperature was X on April 17, 1923. Instead you ignore what those thousands of dedicated weather monitors saw on their thermometers, and then dutifully recorded and mailed off, and believe that it's more precise to just change their observations by three to five degrees, ninety years after the fact?

Truly, fact-based observational science is dead.
 
I guess I have to post this again.
...
Although it should be 97% of scientists.

Yeah, I just cashed a $15 million dollar check from Exxon just for the work I've done in this thread. :cool:

And the 97 percent claim had to be retracted, and is probably going to end up in the courts as Queensland University sues anyone who dares publish the raw data behind it. Even leading skeptics were having their papers cited as supporting the consensus.
 
I guess I have to post this again.
...
Although it should be 97% of scientists.

Yeah, I just cashed a $15 million dollar check from Exxon just for the work I've done in this thread. :cool:

And the 97 percent claim had to be retracted, and is probably going to end up in the courts as Queensland University sues anyone who dares publish the raw data behind it. Even leading skeptics were having their papers cited as supporting the consensus.
Links?

Every time you refuse to back up a claim, I immediately assume that you just made it up. The burden of proof is on you.
 
Of course it's not hurting their economies, because what they stopped was primitive slash-and-burn agriculture, which is basically inefficient subsistence farming.

Meanwhile, from the Ottawa Citizen:

The political leaders of Canada and Australia declared on Monday they won’t take any action to battle climate change that harms their national economies and threatens jobs.

They jumped off the bandwagon before it goes over the cliff.
 
I guess I have to post this again.
...
Although it should be 97% of scientists.

Yeah, I just cashed a $15 million dollar check from Exxon just for the work I've done in this thread. :cool:

And the 97 percent claim had to be retracted, and is probably going to end up in the courts as Queensland University sues anyone who dares publish the raw data behind it. Even leading skeptics were having their papers cited as supporting the consensus.
Links?

Of course I can't link to anything about the $15 million dollars I just got from Exxon - because it's secret. What kind of global conspiracy would it be if warmists like Michael Mann and Peter Gleick could actually find out about all the millions of dollars the oil industry is paying me to reply to your comments? :rolleyes:

And I erred in conflating the Cook Lewandoski paper that had to be retracted (and scrubbed from the web for grossly violating professional ethical standards), with Cook's 97 percent consensus paper, in which his university is hurling legal threats at Brandon Shollenberger who got access to the raw data, forbidding him not only from revealing it, or looking at or analyzing it, but even forbidding him from revealing anything in the Universitiy's letter threatening legal action on the grounds that their letter is copyrighted. :lol:

Needless to say, the climate bloggers are laughing hysterically, and Shollenberger told them to put up or shut up. It's a current event that everyone is talking about.
 
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