How about military medicine contractors? That is long term care with all of that government defense slush money.
Cheer Up! What will do well over the next few years?
- Thread starter Holdfast
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How about military medicine contractors? That is long term care with all of that government defense slush money.
I'm still expecting augmented reality devices and the apps to support them to take off within the next ten years - probably when they've been miniaturised enough to be comfortably wearable. I'm also expecting the shortening of the control loop between the brain and electronic devices with the development of direct neural interfaces. Maybe in 20 years or so? Whether many people will be willing to have devices implanted directly to allow gestalt-like communication across a vast array of possible information environments is debatable. It would open up a whole new realm of possibilities in what it means to be human.
I know, right? You'd think we'd have them by now.
Apologies for my more mercenary intent.
You're opening a lot of different avenues of discussion here, but for now I'll focus on why I selected big financials a potential growth area. This is own of the areas I highlighted in my OP as being counter-intuitive, so it's probably worth talking about it in a bit more detail anyway.
Everyone knows the leverage problems in big financials that were present in pre-2008, and the residual problems they have in this regard, esp. in a low-growth environment when you compound in sovereign risk esp. in the eurozone.
But my picking them out is more a valuation issue than anything else. A couple of weeks or so ago, I really think they became oversold. The markets were discounting the effects of a moderate recession combined with a disorderly euro-default. This was particularly noticeable in how several big UK financials with actually very mild (relatively speaking) exposure to eurozone debt got disproportionately hammered.
From where they were valued, if things went only slightly right instead of completely wrong, their valuations would improve. For example, even a managed default of Greece but sufficient expansion of the EFSF through leveraging to fend off concerns over Italy combined with stagnant low growth rather than recession, while being a poor economic scenario, would be better than the markets were calculating when discounting big UK financials. Thus, they were a valuation play. A bit less so now, because they've moved up in value a bit since then, but still quite undervalued if things go right.
Great answer, esp. the bit I bolded, and my hunch is that you're going to be pleasantly with the timeline. I'm thinking maybe 10-15 years. As a society, we're almost ready to accept it. Look how hard people find it to be divorced from portable technology like their phones.
You'd think that, being a therapist, I'd be doing well. 
^You'll do well not matter what the economic circumstances.
Depends. Right now I'm working with the children of clients who are poor or in poverty. You'd think there would be a great deal of demand, but it isn't always the case. Many of this population are incredibly difficult to work with.
I worked in a children's centre in a very deprived area for a couple of years, and it was very difficult for us to access and gain the trust of the people who needed us most, so I understand what you're saying. It's very frustrating when you're unable to help those whom you truly wish to help.
It is. Especially when they have had involvement with DHS, or whatever the equivalent is in the US because the parents know that a counselor will report any suspected child abuse.
Thankfully I've only had to do so once so far, but I can understand why parents would be wary.
This is why I think investments in companies such as True Value, Lowe's, and Home Depot will do well in the next couple of years.
Airbus, Boeing, Bombadier...in fact any company building mass transit systems should do well. As we see the price of oil (and all it's derivatives) rise, there will be a demand for more mass transit. Existing airline and bus building companies will see a demand increase for more fuel efficient models to add to current fleets.
If you can afford to get into it at all, the housing/real estate market would be good to get into. Buy them now, rent them out, and when the market returns in ten years or so sell for a huge profit.
Another thing that should do well right away is the movie industry. During recessions, this market actually improves. People want to forget about their troubles even if it is only for a few hours. The cost of a movie ticket is pretty cheap and attendance in theaters typically goes up when the economy goes down.
My landlord recently sold the duplex I'm living in. I'm wishing now I would have made an offer on the place! It isn't in the best of shape, so I probably would have had house payments less than my rent, on top of the other tennant's rent!
The airline industry is one of the weirdest I've ever looked into. I think you may be right, but damn, I'm not going to invest big in it any time soon. Their cashflow, overheads, business model... just weird on several levels. And yet, it sort of works...
I think the Asian, transatlantic and transpacific airlines are well positioned, anyway.
Yep; think this is pretty much a no-brainer, if you have the funds for it. Regardless of capital gain, rental yields should be solid, esp. in the market I'm familiar with on this side of the pond.
I was also thinking Bombadier in terms of local mass transit/light rail/subway operations, which will see demand increases when fuel prices reach certain points
