CBS expects Discovery to get All Access subscriptions to 4 million

Discussion in 'Star Trek: Discovery' started by RAMA, Mar 8, 2017.

  1. RAMA

    RAMA Admiral Admiral

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    $312 million??
     
  2. LtChange

    LtChange Captain Captain

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    You have calculated something wrong. 13 episodes will be shown in 3 months in total. If we calculate with 4 million viewers that would be: 3*6*4m = 72 million USD. Although that is pure profit for CSB as Netflix has payed the production costs through their international deal with CBS
     
  3. RAMA

    RAMA Admiral Admiral

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    I was figuring it might take 4 months especially if they pause it. So we are talking about $96 million. Essentially, they are paying for season 2.
     
  4. LtChange

    LtChange Captain Captain

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    I don't know if they will pay for S2, but I would think they will continue their collaboration with Netflix internationally and Netflix will pay at least 50% from S2 onward. That should be a good deal for Netflix if we calculate how much they pay for their other series ... 45 million USD for a season of Star Trek should be a good deal, if we calculate they have payed 120 million for S1 of The Crown. Internationally Star Trek should bring some heavy numbers in new subscribers.

    http://www.cheatsheet.com/entertainment/expensive-netflix-original-tv-shows.html/?a=viewall
     
  5. Sakonna

    Sakonna Commodore Commodore

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    Also, it's not like the money they make when Discovery is first airing is all the money they're going to make from it. With a streaming service, you're building a catalog. Each new property enhances the total value of the service. When the show is over you don't have to keep paying for it, but it will continue to generate revenue for a good long while.
     
  6. wayoung

    wayoung Fleet Captain Fleet Captain

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    ^Nor is the money being spent by subscribers all going towards discovery. If 2 million people have signed up prior to discovery, then it's fair to say that those two million signed up for reasons other than discovery. Then you need to see how many people sign up every month as is and subtract them from the number of who sign up during Discovery 's release window to get the number of people joining the service for Discovery.

    All Access may have 4 million viewers by the time discovery airs, but that doesn't mean 4 million people signed up for Discovery or that 4 million people are watching Discovery.

    Nor does that $6/month go exclusively to Discovery. That money also goes against bandwidth, servers, other access only programs, lost revenue by streaming CBS shows on all access instead of licensing them to Netflix/hulu/amazon, staff, marketing, taxes, etc. etc. etc.

    It's extremely disingenuous to say that because CBS all access has $72 mil in revenue during Discovery's launch window that Discovery is responsible for that revenue and that that revenue is weighed against Discovery's costs only.

    Discovery is already profitable due to Netflix/Bell. Or at least it was last year before all the delays. Who knows what discounts Netflix and Bell worked into the contract for late delivery. I'm willing to bet it's still profitable. But an audience maxing at 4 mil in the US with this kind of budget is super tiny unless they are hoping for some major exponential growth in all access with subsequent seasons or some impressive disc and digital sales.

    Or they are relying on Netflix and Bell continuing to finance the production costs in the future due to international success and have already written off the US viewership.

    Here's hoping the show is fantastic and they get a lot more sign ups than they are anticipating.
     
  7. Andrews

    Andrews Lieutenant Junior Grade Red Shirt

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    I haven't been totally sold on the show, so I won't even be subscribing when the show airs. Honestly hope the show does well, but CBS doesn't have the pull or shows that I want to watch, so I see no point in buying another streaming service just to watch Star Trek.
     
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  8. NOVE9

    NOVE9 Commander Red Shirt

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    Whoops, yep i calculated based on 1 episode airing per month not per week. In my defence i had just finished working overnight and was about to go for bed.
     
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  9. RAMA

    RAMA Admiral Admiral

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    Unlike network Tv or cable, or syndication, you probably could count all the subscribers as supporting whatever show is being shown on the network, in this case an "original" show being produced by the channel. Aside from the 1st season already showing profit (according to CBS itself) anticipation for Discovery has already increased subscribers a bit (before it was delayed) and no doubt it's premiere date will flood the subscriber base. If it in fact has 2 million more, then at least half of the $96 million is directly attributable to Trek.

    As someone else pointed out actual viewership won't be based on subscribers but streaming channels keep that total hidden, though leaks do happen. Apparently Daredevil had 6 million calculated viewers at one point. Expect Discovery to rival that.

    Also as pointed out by someone here, the actual subscriber base won't all be there for just 3-4 months, there will be an aggregate number over a period of time, maybe even a year that the show will add.

    RAMA

     
  10. wayoung

    wayoung Fleet Captain Fleet Captain

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    No, you really can't. CBS's finance team won't be, that's for sure.

    I sincerely doubt that. If your going to make that argument you need to post some proof because it doesn't make logical sense.

    The delay from Jan to May was announced in September, four months from the original launch date. The indefinite delay was announced in January, three months from the launch date. The delays in release have been publicly announced long before the supposed airdates. Anyone signing up did so because they found value in the other streaming content of the service with Discovery being added later being an additional product, not primary purpose. People (outside of the inconsequential crazily hardcore) don't volunteer to pay pay an extra $54 - $72 in subscription fees for an as not yet released product for absolutely no benefit. People paying now are paying for other content, like The Good Fight, as hard as that may be for some to believe.

    FYI, The Good Wife finale got 10.5 million viewers in its initial airing. It's a popular show. The last time trek drew those numbers was in the early 90's.


    It's called pro rating. You have to factor our the regular subscription rate from the spiked subscription rate to calculate a somewhat accurate number to reflect those signing up just for Discovery. Attributing the entire 2 million (plus more, which we just went over) to Discovery is bad accounting.

    Not quite sure how 6 million people can be paying to watch the program through CBS if CBS is expecting 4 million subscribers....

    Also, Netflix had around 80-90 million subscribers when Daredevil was released. That's not the metric you want to be applying here as if you put that same percentage against Trek you get, what, 450,000 viewers for Discovery? A closer example would be House of Cards since it was Netflix's first big original program, but even it's a bad comparison since Netflix was already established at the time with a huge viewer base and little competition.

    And none of that is directly attributable to Discovery either. All that is dependent on continued and continued investment by CBS. If they don't have other, major content on the service then a lot of the subscribers for Discovery will simply cancel their account. That's why Netflix pus more money into original programming than all four US networks. And if people sign up months/years after Discovery launches it's because of the service itself as an entire package (of which Discovery is a part so your attributing all fees to them is a disingenuous), or because of some other event series and again, if they watch Discovery that doesn't mean all their fees are counted towards Discovery.

    This is the first year Netflix issued guidance that it would turn a material profit. Why? Because the only way to maintain and grow it's user base was to invest so much money into programming that even with 90 million subscribers they couldn't make money. They now spend more on programming than all four major TV networks, including CBS. The streaming market is a giant money pit. It's taken Netflix seven years and billions upon billions to reach the point where it feels it has enough content that people won't sign up, watch what they want, and then cancel.


    Netflix/Bell is why Discovery is already profitable (or was already profitable, as I'm sure there are some discounts worked into the contract for late delivery). Netflix has around 43 million subscribers outside of the US and Canada. Its viewers will make up the majority watching the series. Then Canada since it is airing on TV. And last is the US market if CBS only gets 4 million subscribers to all access for launch. 4 million viewers (Max) is nothing.

    The US market is an afterthought here. Discoveries success is entirely resting in the hands of its international distributors.
     
  11. Tesophius

    Tesophius Captain Captain

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    Will the show be available in China? An enormous market and one of the ships has a Chinese sounding name. Actually, is Netflix going to be dubbing the show in every language where is to be chosen, or just use subtitles?
     
  12. Jax

    Jax Admiral Admiral

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    Star Trek being on free TV would easily smash 2 million anyway, this show will probably debut with "Broken Bow" level audience (that was 12.5 million). Trek fans are the type who would pay for a sub to CBS if the show is decent so I think STD will actually earn CBS more than they believe, IF the show is good. Also the HUGE benefit that STD has compared to any other show, the global audience matters for once. Netflix paying the season 1 production budget to air the show around the world less than 24 hours after it airs in North America is a great piece of business. Netflix values the Star Trek library from what I hear, so its not a shock they wanted to get STD on Netflix.
     
  13. donners22

    donners22 Commodore Commodore

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    Netflix isn't legally available in China, but no doubt there are plenty of VPN users.
     
  14. RAMA

    RAMA Admiral Admiral

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    I really don't know how much of the total revenue goes back into programming or to specific shows. There are only a handful of original shows on the streaming channel and the revenue at some point could be considered to cover part of the cost of Discovery(though as we know Netflix already did this for season 1). All of these subscribers have exclusive access in the United States, so it's also likely a large percentage will watch new content. Additionally, it would be hard to calculate just how many of the 2 million expected viewers were just Trekkies or Trek fans, but they will be able to find out how many viewers there were. I think both numbers are currently being somewhat underestimated to be conservative. Streamers are very picky about sharing these numbers but I have a feeling CBS will be tooting their horn.

    Also, since the pilot is also on the main network, we may see a big jump in subscribers in episode 2. Discovery premiere numbers? Hard to say, maybe anywhere from 8 to 18 million is my guess.

    We saw a 500,000 subscriber jump after Discovery was announced..I've seen quotes of many online who joined in anticipation of the show well ahead of time and are still there. No doubt some have not. No one ever said Trekkies were sensible, but I was surprised by how many jumped the gun. Do I know the breakdown scientifically? No, but CBS hasn't released any other info or polled subscribers as far as I know. With no other real new content expected at the time, my supposition seems sensible for the increase.

    Nope, The Enterprise premiere had roughly 12.5 million in only 80% availability nationwide. It averaged a respectable 5.9 million in it's first season.

    I didn't list Daredevil as a record, but as one of the few reported. I believe Luke Cage also probably approached record viewership.

    If it spikes just before or during the first few weeks of an announced airdate we can still get a pretty good indicator of why they are subscribing...

    I'm thinking there will be closer to 5 or 6 million total. Maybe not initially but after it premieres. Additionally, the international total will be pretty high though not a record amount by any means. Netflix isn't as big nor does it have the content of the US. I've seen many people complain online in answer to whiners in America complaining about All-Access.

    Oh, I think since this is such an unusual move by a company to increase subscribers and the wait has been so long, you'll see a very high percentage of subscribers from All-Access tuning in. It throws off the metrics.

    For an already small service, starting at 1 million subscribers, it's quite large. I'm expecting it to be more than 4 million. Even if only half of the roughly 5 million Trekkies in the USA buy the service, a lot of curious people will try it.

    Don't fool yourself. While Trek is going to be a niche show--and therefore fits well on CBS All-Access--CBS is very curious about how it will do in the USA and it'll be proud to say so if it does the numbers. I think it will.
     
  15. RAMA

    RAMA Admiral Admiral

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    Other streaming networks are blocking VPNs. I wouldn't be surprised is All-Access will be VPN proof by September. Foreign Netflix too. China doesn't get a lot of foreign TV and only fairly recently films because it's the king of video piracy. I'm sure some of them will wrangle it anyway. Torrents are bound to be released from some countries, but I just saw a statistic today that bittorrent use is falling, mostly due to more availability and a relative decrease in price in legal streaming.
     
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